Modi's third term bid, and Trump-Biden rematch: The polls to watch for in 2024

The year 2024 will be a record-breaking year for elections. More than two billion voters in 50 countries will cast their ballots in countries including the United States, India, Mexico, and South Africa. All eyes will be on the United States, where a former president will compete for re-election despite facing a slew of serious criminal allegations. It remains to be seen who will confront Vladimir Putin in Russia. In India, it will be interesting to watch what the opposition can do to stop Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s whirlwind. Here’s how the political world might change in 2024. January: Bangladesh demands change amid rising tensions Bangladesh sets off the historic election year in January. Already, anti-government protests have been organised by the main Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, whose top leaders are imprisoned or exiled. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has boycotted the election as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has not quit. February: Elections in Pakistan and Indonesia In February, Pakistan and Indonesia, the world’s two most populous Muslim countries, hold elections within a week of each other. Pakistan will hold its first general election after the resignation of popular but contentious former Prime Minister Imran Khan on corruption allegations, which he denies. Despite not running for office, Khan remains the driving force behind his political party. Soon after, Indonesia will host the world’s largest single-day election, with more than 200 million voters in the country and 1.75 million Indonesian diaspora. March: Vladimir Putin eyes six more years A newly-confident Russian president Vladimir Putin , energised by his troops’ success in holding their positions in Ukraine two years into the war, is hoping to extend his 24-year rule by another six years in March elections. On 8 December he announced he is running for a fifth term, which would keep him in power until 2030. In 2020 he had the constitution amended to allow him to theoretically stay in power until 2036, which could potentially see him rule for longer than Joseph Stalin. [caption id=“attachment_13521102” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] On 8 December Vladimir Putin announced he is running for a fifth term, which would keep him in power until 2030. AP[/caption] With the war in Ukraine used to lock up or silence dissenters and opponents, there is little chance of anyone standing in his way. His long-time nemesis Alexei Navalny is serving a 19-year jail sentence. April-May: Modi’s great power play Nearly one billion Indians will be called on to vote in April-May when India goes to the polls in an election in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP party are seeking a third term. Modi’s political career and success have been based on support from India’s one-billion-plus Hindus and, critics say, stoking enmity toward the country’s large Muslim minority. Also Read: BJP win in Lok Sabha 2024? How money managers are reading political winds Despite a crackdown on civil liberties on his watch, he goes into the vote the clear favourite, with his supporters crediting him with boosting his country’s standing on the global stage. June: EU test for populists The world’s largest transnational poll in June will see more than 400 million people eligible to vote in the European Parliament election. The vote will be a test of support for right-wing populists, who have the wind in their sails after the victory of Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam, anti-EU PVV Freedom Party in November’s Dutch elections and last year’s win for Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy. Brussels can take heart however from Poland, where former European Council president Donald Tusk has returned to power on a solidly pro-EU platform. July: Leftist ex-mayor and indigenous businesswoman compete for first female Leader A leftist former mayor of the capital and a businesswoman with Indigenous roots are both vying to make history in Mexico in June by becoming the first woman president of a country with a tradition of machismo. Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is running on behalf of outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Morena party. Her outspoken opponent Xochitl Galvez has been selected to represent an Opposition coalition, the Broad Front for Mexico. November: Trump-Biden rematch On 5 November, tens of millions of Americans will choose a president in a contest which could keep incumbent Joe Biden in power until the age of 86. [caption id=“attachment_13521112” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden exchange points during the first presidential debate at Case Western University and Cleveland Clinic, in Cleveland, Ohio. File image/AP[/caption] Poll after poll shows that a majority of voters think the gaffe-prone Democrat is too old to be commander-in-chief, despite his likely rival, ex-president Donald Trump making similar slip-ups at 77. Disinformation looks set to be a feature of the campaign, a hangover from the last foul-tempered contest which ended with Trump supporters storming the US Capitol to try to halt the certification of Biden’s victory. Trump goes into the Republican party nomination contest the clear favourite, despite multiple criminal trials hanging over him. Biden’s campaign suffered another blow after the Republican-led House of Representatives voted in December to open a formal impeachment inquiry into whether he profited unduly from his son’s foreign business deals while he was vice-president under Barack Obama. With inputs from AFP