Maldives polls: Why is it high stakes for India and China?

Maldives, the beautiful island-nation, is known for its pristine beaches, its coral reefs and diverse marine life. But on Saturday (30 September) it could also become the venue of a geopolitical rivalry.

Tomorrow, the island nation will witness a run-off election between President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu and the contest won’t just be closely watched by the locals but also by India and China, as both countries vie for influence in the Indian Ocean region.

As the country goes to the polls, we take a closer look at who’s who in the polls and why these elections matter to both – India and China.

Who’s who in the Maldives election?

Saturday’s election will see President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) square off against Mohamed Muizzu, the candidate from Maldives’ main opposition party – the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM).

The run-off poll was necessitated that no candidate – including Solih and Muizzu – could get the required 50 per cent plus vote to be elected president. In the 9 September election, Muizzu had secured more than 46 per cent of the votes, while Solih was a distant runner-up with only 39.05 per cent votes.

However, there are other key players in the elections, namely former President Abdullah Yameen – an ally of Muizzu, who is currently serving an 11-year prison sentence for corruption.

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There’s also former President Mohamed Nasheed, who recently walked out of the Maldivian Democratic Party with his loyalists and formed a new political party called The Democrats. Today, many view Nasheed as a kingmaker in the polls.

But will Nasheed, who captured seven per cent of the votes in the election held earlier in the month, support his now rival Solih? It seems unlikely and he was even quoted as telling the Times of India, “There’s not enough time and even with my support President Solih can’t win.”

But when asked about extending support to Muizzu, “I don’t think I can support a PPM candidate, as we don’t have an understanding.”

As Former foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed told AFP, “This is going to be a very, very close race.”

How do India and China figure in the polls?

These elections are significant to India and China owing to the geographical location of the island country. The atoll nation of nearly 1,200 coral islets situated in the middle of the Indian Ocean holds a crucial position along one of the busiest east-west shipping routes.

Its location alone makes it significant to both New Delhi and Beijing, who are strategically pushing for a larger presence in the Indian Ocean region.

New Delhi is also closely looking at these polls owing to the recent ‘ India Out’ campaign and Maldives edging closer to China in recent times.

In the recent times, especially since Solih came to power, India and Male have come closer together, a drastic shift from Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom’s tenure. However, in 2020, ties hit a rough patch when both countries had to contend with what was called the ‘India Out’ campaign.

Participants of this campaign have accused the Solih government of “allowing Indian boots on the ground”, and thereby “compromising the sovereignty” of the island nation. This came after Delhi gifted two helicopters to Maldives, stating they were to be used for search and rescue missions and medical evacuations. However, it was reported that the Maldivian government had permitted 75 Indian military personnel on the ground.

Their presence and lack of transparency around them led to a furore, with Aishath Liusha, a student in Maldives saying to Christian Science Monitor, “We are looking at Indians as a threat.”

The ‘India Out’ campaign has also pushed the narrative that the current government is “selling off” the Maldives to India. Solih has stated that these fears are exaggerated. “There are no militarily active overseas personnel stationed in the Maldives. Indian personnel currently present in the country are under the operational command of the Maldives National Defence Force.”

So, for India, a win by Solih will be welcomed.

On the other hand, Muizzu, the mayor of Male, has aligned himself with China, as his ally Yameen did. He spearheaded the $200 million China-backed bridge linking the capital to the country’s main airport while in the last government. He has pitched for an “equal” foreign policy and also attacked the government during his campaigning for not doing anything that is not endorsed by India.

In fact, he has made it clear that he intends to follow in the footsteps of his mentor Yameen by aligning himself with Beijing. During an online meeting with Chinese Communist Party representatives, he expressed his belief that if his party, the PPM, were to regain power, it would “script a further chapter of strong ties between our two countries”.

If voted to power, Muizzu would change the geopolitical dynamics of the region. As Azim Zahir, an international relations lecturer at the University of Western Australia, told Christian Science Monitor, “An opposition victory would have serious foreign relations implications including a likely row between Malé and New Delhi.”

However, he notes that no government would attempt to completely sever India ties.

This is also echoed by former foreign minister Ahmed Shaheed. “The next president will have to balance the interests of both India and China. You can’t spurn India and survive.”

Amit Ranjan, an expert in South Asian politics and research fellow at the National University of Singapore also told Christian Science Monitor: “This debate over foreign influence in Maldives is further exacerbated by the escalating power struggle between India and China, which are currently locked in a tense border standoff.”

With inputs from agencies