Lok Sabha elections 2024: BJP has dropped 21% of sitting MPs. Here’s why

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are around the corner; the Election Commission is scheduled to announce the poll dates soon. And in preparation for the big battle, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has begun announcing its candidates, with two of its lists already being declared.

The ruling party announced its first list on 2 March, and on Wednesday (14 March), it announced its second list of 72 candidates.

According to reports, the names of the candidates have been declared after numerous discussions and on the feedback the party’s leadership has received from the ground.

What is interesting about the BJP’s list is that several sitting MPs have been dropped from the 267 declared seats — 33 in the first list and at least 25 from the second list. This means that 21 per cent of the sitting MPs have been replaced for the 2024 polls.

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We take a closer look and who’s in and who’s out, and more importantly, the reasoning behind these choices.

Who’s in?

On 2 March, the BJP had announced its first list of candidates. The first list retained Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the Varanasi constituency as well as Home Minister Amit Shah from Gandhinagar. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh was also named from Lucknow as was Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav from Alwar, Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya from Porbandar and Smriti Irani from Amethi.

In Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP had won 62 of the 80 seats in 2019, the party has decided to field 46 of its sitting MPs. This includes Ajay Mishra Teni, whose son Ashish’s name was involved when a vehicle mowed down farmers during the 2020-21 farmers protest in Lakhimpur Kheri. Teni will contest from Lakhimpur Kheri seat in UP. Similarly, Hema Malini has been retained from Mathura.

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What was even more surprising from the first list was that the BJP only retained one of its MPs from Delhi —actor-turned-politician Manoj Tiwari made the cut, and will be contesting again from North East Delhi, which he won in 2014 and 2019.

Union minister Kiren Rijiju has been retained from Arunachal West while Civil aviation minister Jyotiraditya Scindia has also found himself on the first list, seeking the mandate from his traditional Guna seat. Notably he had lost this seat to BJP’s KP Yadav in 2019 when he fought on a Congress ticket.

Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar has also been named as BJP’s candidate from Kerala’s Thiruvananthapuram, a high-profile constituency held by senior Congress Leader Shashi Tharoor for three terms. Notably, this will be Chandrasekhar’s first Lok Sabha contest.

In Wednesday’s list, there were notably fewer retentions. In Maharashtra, Nitin Gadkari, minister for road transport and highways, has been retained from Nagpur, making it a third time for him.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal also found his name on the second list. He will be contesting from Mumbai North, considered a safe seat for the BJP. Except for 2004 and 2009, the party has held the seat since 1984.

Both Bengaluru South and Bengaluru Central seats have been retained by Tejasvi Surya and PC Mohan, respectively.

Union Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur, has also been retained from Himachal Pradesh’s Hamirpur.

Former chief ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Manohar Lal Khattar have also been included this time around, from Vidisha and Karnal respectively.

Who’s out?

But for as many MPs that the BJP has retained, it has dropped many more — 21 per cent, as per an NDTV analysis.

In Madhya Pradesh, Pragya Thakur, from Bhopal, has been dropped. As has Rajbahadur Singh from Sagar and J S Damor from Ratlam. The BJP has also dropped Chhatar Singh Darbar from the Dhar seat, giving it to Savitri Thakur.

Incidentally, Darbar has held this seat for the last three terms. The party also named Bharti Pardhi as its candidate from Balaghat seat, instead of its sitting MP Dal Singh Bisen.

Of the five names announced for Delhi in the first list, four have been replaced. This includes Union minister Meenakshi Lekhi, who in 2019 had won from the New Delhi seat. She has made way for Bansuri Swaraj, daughter of the late Sushma Swaraj. Similarly, Parvesh Verma from West Delhi has been dropped. So has Ramesh Bidhuri from South Delhi and Harsh Vardhan from Chandini Chowk. And in the second list too, BJP has dropped its sitting MP Hans Raj Hans, the singer, from the North West Delhi constituency reserved for Scheduled Castes.

In Gujarat too, the BJP has named 22 of its candidates so far. It dropped five leaders in the first list and four in the second. Those dropped include junior Railway minister Darshana Jardosh. Instead of the three-time MP, the party has chosen Mukesh Dalal for the Surat Lok Sabha constituency. Other sitting MPs who have been denied tickets are — Dipsinh Rathod from Sabarkantha, KC Patel from Valsad, Bhartiben Shiyal from Bhavnagar and Geetaben Rathwa from Chhota Udepur.

For Rajkot Lok Sabha seat, the BJP named Union minister Parshottam Rupala as its candidate, dropping sitting MP Mohanbhai Kalyanji Kundariya.

In Karnataka too, the BJP has dropped nine sitting Karnataka MPs, including its former state unit president Nalin Kumar Kateel and Pratap Simha—both Hindutva firebrands. Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar, the scion of the Mysuru royal family, will make his Lok Sabha poll debut from the Mysore seat in place of Simha.

A similar trend is also reported from Haryana, where two have been replaced from the six seats announced. In Telangana too, the BJP has only repeated MP.

Why is the BJP dropping sitting MPs?

But what’s behind this move? Why is the BJP choosing not to field sitting MPs? A lot has to do with the numbers. The ruling party has called given a call for ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’. In 2019, the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had won 303 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

For the BJP to attain this number of 400, there are several factors they have to consider, incumbency being the biggest and most important. By fielding fresh faces, the BJP is attempting to counter the anti-incumbency feeling that may have set in for voters for some candidates.

Moreover, the BJP is sending out a message to voters and candidates: The message that everyone has a chance and anyone can be dropped. This helps keep MPs on their toes and guarantees better performance from them. Some poll analysts also believe that by adding new faces, the BJP is broadening its leadership pool.

In some cases, the BJP has also replaced firebrand and controversial MPs. For instance, Pragya Thakur and Parvesh Verma. Thakur had earlier made a statement, referring to Nathuram Godse and calling him a “patriot”. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had then said in an interview to a TV channel ahead of the last phase of voting in the 2019 general elections that he would never be able to forgive her.

Others have been replaced solely owing to their poor performance or because they have been embroiled in some scandal or the other.

It seems that the BJP is doing all it can to ensure that it secures a third term in power. And if the News18 mega opinion poll is any indicator, it seems that it will, in fact, be ‘Teesri baar Modi sarkar’.

With inputs from agencies