 "Jharkhand election result 2024: How Hemant Soren helped INDI Alliance defy pollsters' predictions")
Political observers eagerly awaiting today’s results (23 November) in Jharkhand would have noted that the exit polls had the opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ahead of the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led Indi Alliance.
Five of eight pollsters, in fact, gave the edge to the NDA, while just three said the ruling Indi Alliance would return.
Now, we know that the Indi Alliance is back in Jharkhand – with a bang.
The Indi Alliance is leading in 57 seats in the 81-seat Assembly – comfortably ahead of the halfway mark of 41 seats – compared to 29 seats for the NDA.
Chief Minister Hemant Soren of the JMM looks set to return at the helm.
“We will form government with a two-third majority in Jharkhand,” Congress leader Rajesh Thakur said.
But how did Soren help Indi Alliance defy the predictions in Jharkhand?
Let’s take a closer look:
Pressure coming in
Many are giving the credit for the victory to the leadership of Soren – who is leading from the Barhait Assembly seat against Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Galiyel Hembrom.
Soren, who has held the seat since 2014, was under immense pressure after being arrested in an alleged land scam case in January by the Enforcement Directorate.
Soren, who stepped down as chief minister shortly before the arrest, appointed party loyalist Champai Soren as chief minister.
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The Jharkhand High Court in June granted Soren bail – the ED had opposed his plea arguing that he was ‘misusing state machinery’ to try to obstruct the investigation into the case – after initially dismissing a plea challenging his arrest in May.
In July, Soren made his return as chief minister of Jharkhand ahead of the Assembly polls – a move unanimously endorsed by the JMM’s Indi allies the Congress and RJD.
However, his return caused Champai to quit the party in a huff and join the BJP – another blow for the JMM.
Soren pulls it out
The BJP campaigned on an “anti-infiltrators” pitch.
As per India Today, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah railed against “illegal immigration” from Bangladesh and claimed that Jharkhand’s ‘maati, beti and roti’ (land, daughter and bread) were in danger.
Top BJP leaders, including Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, BJP president JP Nadda, and chief ministers of several states, addressed extensive rallies, attacking the JMM-led coalition over allegations of corruption and infiltration.
They also targeted Soren, who had spent five months in jail in connection with the money-laundering case.
But the JMM under Soren was laser-focussed on welfare schemes.
The party gave special emphasis to pushing adivasi Asmita (tribal pride) and its Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana which provides Rs 1,000 per month for women who are eligible under the scheme.
The party also hit the BJP for ‘using’ the ED and CBI to bring Soren down.
Soren also accused the BJP of spending over Rs 500 crore on “malicious campaigns” against him.
While the BJP used Champai’s defection to attack Soren – claiming that the JMM had ‘insulted’ a tribal leader – the JMM kept the focus on keeping the contest between its chief minister and the BJP.
This allowed it to tap into the sympathy of voters for Soren after his arrest, as per India Today.
The power couple
Though Soren is leading in the Barhait seat by over 17,000 votes, his wife Kalpana Soren, who entered politics this year after the arrest of her husband and revitalised the JMM, was trailing in the Gandey seat.
The BJP had derisively dubbed the power couple ‘Bunty aur Babli’ ahead of the polls.
The power couple was seen relaxing on Thursday after the polls, playing with their dogs, pictures shared by Hemant Soren on X showed.
The JMM return to power in Jharkhand signifies the deepened influence of the Sorens among the tribal communities, as they successfully mobilised tribal sentiments following Hemant Soren’s arrest on January 31 by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in a money-laundering case linked to an alleged land scam.
Both Hemant and Kalpana managed to create a wave of sympathy among the tribal electorate, and despite the anti-incumbency sentiment, the BJP failed to capitalise on this and form a government, according to poll analysts.
A JMM worker said that Kalpana was referred to as the “helicopter madam” in Gandey, a term used by the BJP to suggest that she was an outsider, as she isn’t a local resident, unlike Muniya Devi. However, the worker added, “Kalpana may close the gap in the coming rounds.”
Soren previously won from the Dumka seat in 2009 and again in 2019 along with the Barhait (ST) constituency.
He gave up the former in 2020.
Meanwhile, Champai, famously known as the “Kolhan Tiger” is leading from the Seraikela seat and seems to be on the verge of achieving victory.
He has held this seat since Jharkhand’s first Assembly election in 2005.
Champai is facing his former colleague and JMM candidate Ganesh Mahali.
With inputs from agencies
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