Can Ishiba hold on after election loss as Japan’s political crisis deepens amid US tariff threats?

Japan’s political leadership is facing turmoil as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition suffered a defeat in the recent upper house elections.

With mounting pressure from opposition, growing dissatisfaction within his own party, and a looming trade standoff with the United States, Ishiba is now contending with the most turbulent phase of his premiership since taking office last October.

The results from Sunday’s election dealt a substantial blow to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito.

Together, the two parties secured only 47 seats in the 248-member upper house — falling short of the 50-seat threshold required to retain a majority.

Half the seats were contested in this round. This outcome means the coalition now lacks a majority in both chambers of the Japanese Diet, having already lost control of the more influential lower house during the October elections last year.

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The loss is historic. For the first time since the LDP’s founding in 1955, a sitting prime minister from the party is governing without holding a majority in at least one chamber of parliament.

This result comes on the heels of widespread voter frustration over rising consumer costs, stagnant wage growth, and the government’s perceived failure to provide adequate relief.

Despite the election loss, Ishiba has insisted on staying in office. Speaking to reporters, he said, “I will stay in office and do everything in my power to chart a path toward resolving these challenges.”

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He also noted that he intends to engage directly with US President Donald Trump to secure a trade agreement before the impending August 1 deadline for additional tariffs.

In a separate statement to NHK, Ishiba acknowledged the public sentiment behind the election outcome: “That’s right. It’s a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously.”

Why Ishiba lost his majority

Economic concerns were at the heart of voter discontent. Over the past year, households have been squeezed by rising prices across essential commodities, including Japan’s staple grain — rice.

Public frustration has only increased by declining real wages and the government’s inability to implement effective policies to counter inflationary pressure.

The prime minister expressed awareness of these concerns. “While I painfully feel my serious responsibility over the election results, I believe I must also fulfill my responsibility I bear for the country and the people so as not to cause politics to stall or go adrift,” he said.

Ishiba’s administration has so far resisted calls to reduce the consumption tax, despite growing popular demand and opposition campaigning centered on such relief.

“Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes,” said David Boling of Eurasia Group. “Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home.”

In contrast, rival parties have pledged increased social welfare spending and tax cuts. This strategy helped them win votes, especially among economically strained demographics.

Adding further strain to the economic outlook is the concern surrounding Japan’s public debt, already the largest in the world.

The LDP has been advocating fiscal restraint amid a jittery government bond market, where investor confidence has been slipping.

Internal dissent within the LDP

While Ishiba remains publicly committed to continuing as prime minister, dissatisfaction is growing within the ranks of his own party. Several senior figures have reportedly questioned his leadership following the election outcome.

Among them is former Prime Minister Taro Aso, a prominent faction leader within the LDP, who was quoted by TV Asahi as saying he “couldn’t accept” Ishiba staying on as leader.

Local media reports suggest that senior LDP members met on Sunday evening to discuss the possibility of Ishiba stepping down.

According to the Sankei newspaper, the meeting reflected serious concerns about the future of the party’s governance under his leadership.

When asked about these internal calls for his resignation, Ishiba said: “It is natural that there are various opinions within the party.”

Although the LDP remains the largest party in parliament, its inability to pass legislation unilaterally will likely require negotiation with the fragmented opposition.

Analysts believe Ishiba may now have to build support for individual policies through ad hoc alliances in order to keep the government functioning.

How Opposition is reacting

The electoral results provided a boost to opposition parties. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), led by Yoshihiko Noda, secured 22 seats in the upper house, bringing its total to 37.

Following the vote, Noda announced that he was considering introducing a no-confidence motion against the Ishiba government, arguing that the election outcome demonstrated a lack of public trust in the current leadership.

The centre-right Democratic Party for the People also increased its standing, finishing with 22 seats.

However, despite the gains made by individual parties, the broader opposition remains fragmented across roughly a dozen parties, making it difficult to form a cohesive alternative to the ruling coalition.

Any attempt to topple Ishiba’s government through a no-confidence vote would need broad support from across these disparate groups, a scenario that currently appears unlikely.

What about Sanseito

While the traditional parties battled for control, the election also saw a dramatic rise in support for the far-right Sanseito party.

Founded during the Covid-19 pandemic, the party grew its influence through online platforms like YouTube, often promoting conspiracy theories related to vaccines and elite global networks.

Sanseito increased its representation from one seat to 15, becoming one of the most notable political stories of the election.

Their “Japanese First” slogan and strong anti-immigration rhetoric struck a chord with disillusioned voters who felt neglected by mainstream political discourse.

Party leader Sohei Kamiya, a former supermarket manager and English teacher, has previously cited European right-wing movements like Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and the UK’s Reform Party as inspiration for Sanseito’s political model.

Supporters of Sanseito often express concerns about immigration and cultural erosion.

One voter, 25-year-old graduate student Yu Nagai, told AFP: “I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners. When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected.”

Although foreign-born residents make up only about 3 per cent of Japan’s population, a record 3.8 million foreigners now live in the country.

The influx — boosted by tourism and labour shortages — has sparked increased visibility and debate around immigration policy, especially in urban centres.

How Trump’s tariff threats play into this

The most pressing foreign policy issue facing Ishiba’s government is the ongoing trade standoff with the United States.

With a 25 per cent tariff on Japanese automobiles set to come into effect on August 1, the urgency to strike a mutually beneficial deal with Washington has become paramount.

Ishiba has stated that he hopes to meet with US President Donald Trump soon to resolve the matter.

“We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States … we must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realising our national interests,” Ishiba told TV Tokyo.

The economic implications of the proposed tariffs are significant. Japan’s automobile sector, which comprises roughly 8 per cent of the national workforce, has already begun to feel the strain.

Exports to the US have dropped sharply, fuelling concerns of an impending recession.

Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa has made multiple trips to Washington in recent months. His latest visit, which began Monday morning, is his eighth in the past three months.

The US administration has voiced its displeasure with Japan’s trade practices, particularly over what it perceives as barriers to American goods such as rice and cars.

Trump has also criticised the lack of meaningful progress in negotiations, despite Japan’s ongoing grain shortages.

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With inputs from agencies