 "Double whammy for Japan: Decline of Ishiba’s LDP, and rise of far right")
With the results of Japan’s latest upper house (House of Councillors) election held on Sunday, July 20, trickling in, voters have dealt a double blow to the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner, the Buddhist Komeito party.
Held just nine months after Ishiba assumed the prime ministership, the election served as a strong rebuke to both the prime minister and the LDP—Japan’s historically dominant party. Under Ishiba’s leadership, the coalition has now suffered two consecutive defeats in national elections in under a year—in the lower house (October 2024), and in upper house now.
First Time in Seven Decades
Of the 248 seats in the upper chamber, 125 were contested in Sunday’s election. The LDP and Komeito needed to retain at least 50 of their combined 66 seats to maintain their majority. They fell short, winning only 47 seats—better than early projections, but not enough to hold control.
This marks the first time since World War II, and in the LDP’s 70-year history, that an LDP-led coalition does not hold a majority in either house of Japan’s national legislature—the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors.
Results Decoded
According to NHK’s Monday, July 21 morning projections, the results break down as follows:
The LDP is likely to win 39 seats, and its partner Komeito 8 seats, for a total of 47.
The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), is projected to secure 21 seats.
The populist conservative Democratic Party for the People (DPP), with only four incumbents up for re-election, is expected to win 17 seats.
The surprise of the election is the far-right Sanseito party, which had just one seat going in but is projected to win 14. Sanseito ran a staunchly anti-immigration campaign under the slogan “Japanese First”.
Nippon Ishin no Kai is projected to win seven seats.
The Japanese Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi are expected to win three seats each.
And the Real Winner Is…
Mirroring a broader trend seen across Europe and beyond, Japan’s latest election signals the rising clout of far-right and anti-establishment forces. Once relatively insulated from such movements, Japan has now joined this global wave.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe standout winners in Sunday’s election are two far-right parties—Sanseito and the Democratic Party for the People—both of which didn’t exist five years ago. These parties, with their populist messages, have made significant inroads, particularly among younger voters.
Most notable is Sanseito’s dramatic leap from one seat to 14. The five-year-old party campaigned on the idea that Japan is under a “silent invasion” from foreigners, claiming foreign investment and tourism have made the country an “economic colony”. They described reliance on foreign labor as a “national doping scheme”.
Sanseito has signaled its intent to join a coalition government after the next Lower House election—a possibility experts believe could gain traction amid mounting anti-LDP sentiment.
The Double Whammy
This comes on the heels of an earlier defeat in the more powerful Lower House election in October 2024, when Ishiba’s coalition lost its majority in the 465-seat chamber. That loss was widely seen as voter punishment for numerous financial scandals.
The ruling bloc’s seat count fell from 279 to just 215—their worst performance since briefly losing power in 2009. The Lower House, unlike the Upper House, selects the prime minister and can override the upper chamber on budgets and legislation.
To Stay On
Despite the double setback, Ishiba has resisted calls to step down. In interviews with NHK on July 20 and a press conference on July 21, he made it clear he intends to remain in office to fulfill his campaign pledges.
“We’ve received an extremely harsh judgment from the public,” Ishiba acknowledged at LDP headquarters. “(The result) was extremely deplorable. I apologise.” But he added, “We will not allow stagnation in national politics.”
He cited ongoing tariff talks with the United States, rising prices, and the looming threat of a major earthquake in Tokyo as reasons to stay. “Such things do not wait for the political situation to be settled,” he said.
Regarding US trade negotiations, he added, “With the new date of August 1st in mind, I want to reach an agreement that benefits both Japan and the United States based on the idea of investments, rather than tariffs.”
Dismal Approval Rating
Public approval for Ishiba’s cabinet has been low since he took office in October 2024. According to the latest Jiji Press survey, approval dropped 6.2 points in July to just 20.8 per cent—the lowest since his administration began.
Meanwhile, disapproval surged by 6.6 points to 55.0 per cent. The reasons cited include lack of hope (29.7 per cent), lack of leadership (21.9 per cent), and disapproval of policies (21.6 per cent).
Election Issues
Economy: The top issue for voters was the economy—particularly rising prices following decades of stagnation.
Wage Stagnation: While wages have increased somewhat, they haven’t kept pace with the cost of living.
Spike in Rice Prices: A key frustration has been the sharp rise in rice prices, attributed to government failure in balancing supply and demand.
Trump Tariffs: Japan’s export-reliant economy is grappling with the unpredictability of former US President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats.
In June, inflation rose by 3.3 per cent compared to a year earlier, while real wages fell 2.9 percent in May. While the ruling coalition proposed cash handouts to ease the burden, opposition parties favored cuts to the consumption tax.
Confusion Galore
Though Ishiba has only been in office since October 1, 2024, past prime ministers have struggled to retain power after similar losses. In fact, no LDP leader has survived after back-to-back electoral defeats. The defeats of Sosuke Uno in 1989 and Ryutaro Hashimoto in 1998 are poignant precedents.
Still, Ishiba has vowed to continue—for now. But the odds are stacked heavily against him.
A Jiji Press exit poll found that 24.3 per cent of respondents want an opposition-centered government to replace the current regime. Only 18.4 per cent supported continuation of the LDP-Komeito coalition.
The poll also revealed widespread uncertainty:
9.6 per cent favored a DPP entry into the coalition.
7.0 per cent wanted the CDP to participate in government.
5.1 per cent hoped for a LDP-Komeito partnership with Nippon Ishin no Kai.
A significant 35.5 per cent supported none of the above or were undecided.
What Next?
No national election is due until 2028. The next LDP presidential election is set for September 2027—unless Ishiba resigns earlier.
The ruling coalition now finds itself in a legislative bind. Without a majority in either house, passing laws will be a challenge. Forming a third coalition partner may prove difficult; building consensus on critical issues could be even harder.
After back-to-back defeats in both houses—a historic first in 70 years for the LDP—the latest Upper House loss may well signal that time is running out for Prime Minister Ishiba. Public trust in the coalition’s ability to tackle inflation, stabilise prices, and push through reforms has eroded.
Experts suggest the coalition’s best bet may be to accept opposition policy proposals where possible and form ‘diagonal’ partnerships on a case-by-case basis to pass legislation.
Future Uncertain
As the dust settles, the questions loom: Is this the beginning of the end for the LDP’s dominance? Do the new far-right parties represent a fleeting protest vote, or a long-term shift in Japan’s political landscape? Is this the voice of the young and disillusioned?
It’s too early to say with certainty—but what is clear is this: the ruling coalition has reached a checkmate moment. And if the fragmented opposition unites to bring a no confidence motion against the ruling LDP coalition, the unthinkable may possibly happen in Japan.
The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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