Why did Israel strike Iran now? What happens next?

Israel has retaliated to Iran’s barrage of strikes earlier this month. The Israeli military said it hit “precise” military targets in Iran early on Saturday (October 26), the latest attack in the intensifying conflict between the bitter foes.

Iran has responded to the wave of Israeli strikes, saying it caused “limited damage” in some areas. Israel has warned Tehran not to “make the mistake” of escalating tensions further.

“We conducted targeted and precise strikes on military targets in Iran — thwarting immediate threats to the state of Israel. The Israel Defense Forces has fulfilled its mission,” Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a video message.

“If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation — we will be obligated to respond,” he added.

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Let’s take a closer look.

Israel strikes Iran

Israel launched three waves of overnight strikes on Iran, with Iranian media reporting several explosions over many hours in Tehran and at nearby military bases, as per Reuters.

It is rare for Israel to acknowledge military activity on Iranian territory. The two countries in West Asia have been embroiled in a shadow war for decades.

Since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the shadow war has burst into the open.

The Israeli military confirmed on early Saturday that it has completed “precise and targeted” airstrikes on military targets in Iran. “The retaliatory strike has been completed and the mission was fulfilled. Our planes have safely returned home,” the IDF said in a statement.

The military dubbed the operation “Days of Repentance”, reported The Times of Israel.

According to the IDF, the Israeli Air Force struck “missile manufacturing facilities” that it said were used to produce the missiles that Iran fired at Israel over the last year.

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“Simultaneously, the IDF struck surface-to-air missile arrays and additional Iranian aerial capabilities, that were intended to restrict Israel’s aerial freedom of operation in Iran,” the statement added.

“I can now confirm that we have concluded the Israeli response to Iran’s attacks against Israel. We conducted targeted and precise strikes on military targets in Iran — thwarting immediate threats to the State of Israel.”

Watch IDF Spokesperson RAdm. Daniel Hagari talk about the… pic.twitter.com/1OOss3etpV

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 26, 2024

Tehran confirmed the Israeli attacks on its soil but said they were “successfully intercepted and countered by the integrated air defence systems of the country, resulting in limited damage to some locations.”

In a statement on X, the Israeli military said the “unlawful Zionist regime”, a reference to Israel, “targeted military centres in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan, and Ilam.”

To the esteemed people of Iran, it is hereby reported that, despite previous warnings from the authorities of the Islamic Republic to the criminal and unlawful Zionist regime to refrain from any adventurous actions, this illegitimate regime, in a provocative act, targeted… pic.twitter.com/pBHkmDSWdq

— Iran Military Monitor (@IRIran_Military) October 26, 2024

As per CNN, videos posted by Tehran residents on social media showed explosions in the sky and tracer fire erupting from the city before dawn.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) bases were attacked but claimed they were not damaged, according to Reuters.

The full extent of the damage is yet to be known.

Reuters reported citing Iran’s state news agency IRNA that flights on all routes were cancelled until further notice. Iraq, the Islamic Republic’s neighbour, also suspended all flights until further notice, its state news agency said.

The flights in Iran returned to normal from 9:00 local time (11 am IST), as per BBC.

The United States, Israel’s biggest backer and supplier of arms, said it was informed before the IDF struck Iran.

As per Associated Press (AP), two US officials said Israel notified Washington ahead of the strikes but the US was not involved in the operation.

The US had made it clear to Israel that it would not support targeting Iran’s nuclear sites. President Joe Biden had also asked Israel to think of other alternative targets to Iran’s oil infrastructure.

Airstrikes on military sites in central and southern parts of Syria early on Saturday have also been attributed to Israel, Reuters reported citing the country’s state news agency SANA. Israel has not confirmed carrying out attacks in Syria.

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Why Israel attacked Iran

Israel’s strikes on Iran did not come as a surprise. After Iran launched at least 180 missiles into Israel on October 1, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said Tehran had “made a big mistake” and would “pay for it”.

Iran and Israel were last involved in direct tit-for-tat attacks in April. Tehran had attacked Israel for striking an Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus, killing seven of Iran’s senior commanders and military personnel. Israel retaliated by launching a strike against air defences protecting a military base near the city of Isfahan in Iran.

Israel’s response last time had come about five days after Tehran’s aerial barrage. This time, the riposte took longer due to various factors, including talks between Israel and the US about the recent flare-up in West Asia, the arrival of the US military’s THAAD anti-missile defences in Israel and the Jewish holidays, reported New York Times (NYT).

Israeli officials said the retaliation against Iran came after weeks of discussions within its Security Cabinet about the nature and scope of such an attack .

Eventually, Israel decided to hit only military targets. As per CNN, one Israeli official described this as a result of a “very diligent decision-making process.”

What Israel’s attack on Iran means

Israel’s attack on Iran has pushed the foes closer to an all-out war, which would be devastating for West Asia. Israel is already involved in conflict with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the militant groups seen as Iran’s proxies.

Iran’s Tasnim news agency said citing sources that Israel will face a “proportional reaction” for its strikes on the Islamic Republic.

With Israel avoiding Iran’s nuclear sites or oil fields, the possibility of a full-scale war between the two rivals may have been reduced, noted NYT.

One expert told BBC News that Iran claiming that the Israeli strikes were unsuccessful could point to the Islamic Republic “setting the stage to de-escalate”.

But some say it is too early to predict.

An all-out war could drag the US into a wider conflagration in West Asia with America heading to presidential polls in less than two weeks.

The US has urged Iran not to retaliate to Israel’s attack. “If Iran chooses to respond once again, we will be ready, and there will be consequences for Iran once again,” BBC cited a statement by senior administration officials as saying.

It said the US did not want this to happen.

“This should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran,” the statement added. It further said that Washington was prepared to “lead an effort to secure an end to the war in Lebanon” and try to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, along with the return of hostages captured from Israel during the October 7 attacks last year.

If Iran does react, the US will back Israel for another retaliation, continuing the cycle of violence in West Asia.

With input from agencies