 "What are Israel's targets in Iran? Will a strike ignite a full-scale war?")
Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealing plans for potential military strikes on Iranian targets in response to recent missile attacks.
As the two nations continue their shadow conflict, questions arise about Israel’s precise objectives in Iran, its geopolitical implications, and the role of its allies like the United States.
What is Israel planning for Iran?
According to sources close to the discussions between Israel and the United States, Netanyahu has informed US President Joe Biden’s administration that any forthcoming Israeli retaliation will focus exclusively on military infrastructure in Iran.
The Washington Post first reported that Netanyahu had reassured Washington of Israel’s plans to avoid oil and nuclear targets in Iran.
Despite growing concern over the possibility of Israel striking nuclear or oil facilities, Netanyahu’s approach seems to prioritise avoiding full-scale war, opting instead for a “limited” military operation.
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An anonymous US official told The Washington Post that Netanyahu was in a “more moderated place” in the discussion than he had previously been, adding that the shift in tone factored into Biden’s decision to deploy a powerful missile defence system to Israel.
The Pentagon confirmed this by announcing that it would send the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, along with 100 US military personnel, to bolster Israel’s defences against potential Iranian retaliation.
The Israeli defence establishment, however, is divided over the scale and public visibility of this strike. While Netanyahu’s team appears to favour patience, others, such as former PM Naftali Bennett, argue that Israel should seize the moment to launch a more comprehensive attack on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, calling it “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.”
How invested is the US in Israel’s strike on Iran?
The discussions between Washington and Jerusalem highlight a delicate balancing act. While Netanyahu has vowed that Israel will act according to its national interest, he remains cognizant of US concerns.
Biden has publicly opposed Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, warning that such actions could spiral into a wider conflict. Moreover, US officials have stressed the dangers of targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure, especially with the US presidential election just weeks away.
An attack on oil facilities could send global energy prices soaring, with significant political and economic repercussions for the US.
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Yet, despite these assurances, American officials are cautious. Israel’s track record of deviating from prior agreements complicates Washington’s confidence in its diplomatic leverage. For instance, Israel launched a surprise airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shortly after the US and France proposed a ceasefire in Lebanon — an action that frustrated US diplomats.
Netanyahu’s office made it clear in a post on X: “We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interest.”
Prime Minister's Office statement:
— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) October 15, 2024
We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests. https://t.co/lwT1VaPe9W
As a result, while the US has won some assurances from Israel regarding nuclear and oil targets, those assurances are not considered ironclad.
Why is Israel considering attacking Iran?
Tensions sharply escalated on October 1, when Iran launched approximately 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, hitting military installations and killing a Palestinian man in the West Bank.
The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, stated that the attack was intended to “restore balance and deterrence” in the region. This was Iran’s second major strike on Israel in six months, the first being in April, during which hundreds of drones and missiles were intercepted by a US-led military coalition.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant declared Israel’s intention to retaliate for the October 1 attack, calling for a response that would be “precise, painful, and surprising.” However, Gallant also stated that Israel is not interested in opening “additional fronts or new conflicts.”
This cautious stance reflects Israel’s need to balance multiple ongoing conflicts—most notably, its ground operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah and its expanded offensive in Gaza targeting Hamas.
What are the stakes?
While Israeli officials have made it clear that they are preparing for a military response, the potential ramifications of a strike — no matter how limited — are immense. Netanyahu’s proposed action is expected before the US elections in November, with Israeli officials expressing concerns that delaying the strike could embolden Iran.
Experts warn that a strike on Iran’s military infrastructure could lead to significant retaliation, not only from Iran but from its proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas.
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A major concern remains the impact on US-Iranian relations and the ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at reviving nuclear talks. With the recent election of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist who has shown interest in reopening negotiations with the West, a military strike could derail any possibility of diplomacy.
Israeli political analyst Talshir told The Washington Post that Netanyahu’s timing is strategic: “If Kamala Harris is elected, Netanyahu thinks the nuclear deal will be back on the table… and so now is a strategic moment to undermine this.”
With inputs from agencies
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