 "Israel-Iran conflict: How close is Tehran to building a nuclear weapon?")
Israel on Friday launched airstrikes on Iran.
Tel Aviv started conducted ‘Operation Rising Lion’ in order to deal a blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that the operation was essential to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival”.
“If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time”, Netanyahu claimed. “It could be a year. It could be within a few months.”
But how close is Iran to building a nuclear bomb?
Let’s take a closer look:
What do we know?
Iran does not currently possess a nuclear weapon.
It officially suspended its nuclear bomb program in 2003.
The US and other western intelligence agencies have repeatedly said so – and have added that Iran does not seem on the pathway to making a nuclear bomb.
US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard earlier this year told Congress that the US “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that he suspended in 2003”.
However, how far away it is from being able to develop one is a different ballgame.
Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran committed to keeping its uranium enrichment levels at 3.67 per cent or under.
This was way under the 90 per cent purity threshold required for uranium in order for Iran to actually produce a nuclear bomb.
The deal also left Iran around 300 kilos of uranium – just enough to keep its civilian power stations going.
However, in 2018, US president Donald Trump pulled out of the deal.
The results of the deal have been catastrophic.
Iran has now enriching 408 kilos of uranium up to 60 per cent purity – still far short of the 90 per cent needed.
However, if Iran manages to refine the uranium to 90 per cent, it could make around 9 or 10 nuclear bombs, as per the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
In May, the IAEA sounded the alarm on Iran’s growing uranium pile.
The watchdog in a report said Iran is now “the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce such material.”
“While safeguarded enrichment activities are not forbidden in and of themselves, the fact that Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state in the world that is producing and accumulating uranium enriched to 60 per cent remains a matter of serious concern,” it said.
However, the IAEA added that it had “no credible indications of an ongoing, undeclared structured nuclear programme”.
What do experts say?
They say that though Iran does not have a nuclear bomb , it could do so fairly quickly if it chooses to.
The Council on Foreign Relations, a US based think-tank, has claimed Iran could make a nuclear bomb within a couple of weeks.
The IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), asked about Iran’s nuclear programme, said in May, “Dates are always arbitrary. But they are not far. It would be, you know, a matter of months, not years.”
Critics point out that Israel has been saying that Iran is close to building a nuclear bomb for decades – which as of yet has still not come to pass.
Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the US-based Arms Control Association, told BBC that Netanyahu “did not present any clear or compelling evidence that Iran was on the brink of weaponizing”.
“Iran has been at a near-zero breakout for months,” she added. “Similarly, the assessment that Iran could develop a crude nuclear weapon within a few months is not new.”
“If Netanyahu was purely motivated by Iran’s proliferation risk, Israel would likely have shared that intelligence with the United States and the initial attack would likely have targeted all of Iran’s key nuclear facilities,” she added.
They also say that Netanyahu is either trying to scupper any chances of a peace process between US and Iran or trying to save his own government – maybe even both.
“Bibi’s been speaking about [attacking Iran] for 40 years,” as a former senior aide Netanyahu told the Economist.
Just nine countries have nuclear weapons – the US, Russia, France, China, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.
Ironically, Israel is the only country in West Asia to actually have a nuclear weapon – even though it has never confirmed that it actually does.
Experts put Israeli stockpile anywhere between 75 and 400 nuclear warheads.
With input from agencies
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