Why is Israel's Netanyahu firm on attacking Rafah?

“The idea that we will halt the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question,” Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday before families of hostages still held in Gaza, reiterating Israel’s intention to move on Rafah, with or without an agreement , citing the goal of dismantling Hamas.

“We will enter Rafah because we have no other choice. We will destroy the Hamas battalions there, we will complete all the objectives of the war, including the return of all our hostages,” Netanyahu said.

Israel has approved military plans for its offensive and has moved troops and tanks to southern Israel in apparent preparation, but it is unclear when or if it will occur.

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This plan raises critical questions about civilian safety, humanitarian concerns, and geopolitical repercussions, underscoring the complex dynamics at play in the region.

Approximately 1.4 million Palestinians — more than half of Gaza’s population — are crammed into the town and its surroundings. The majority of them fled their homes elsewhere in the territory to avoid Israel’s onslaught and are now facing another wrenching move, or the risk of being hit by a new attack. They live in densely packed tent camps, overcrowded UN shelters, or cramped apartments, relying on international aid for food, with sanitation and medical facilities infrastructure crippled.

Why is Rafah so vital?

Since Israel declared war in response to Hamas’ deadly cross-border attack on 7 October, Netanyahu has said a central goal is to destroy its military capabilities.

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Israel says Rafah is Hamas’ last major stronghold in the Gaza Strip, after operations elsewhere dismantled 18 out of the militant group’s 24 battalions, according to the military. But even in northern Gaza, the first target of the offensive, Hamas has regrouped in some areas and continued to launch attacks.

Israel says Hamas has four battalions in Rafah and that it must send in ground forces to topple them. Some senior militants could also be hiding in the city.

Why is there so much opposition to the plan?

The US has urged Israel not to carry out the operation without a “credible” plan to evacuate civilians. Egypt, a strategic partner of Israel, has said that an Israeli military seizure of the Gaza-Egypt border — which is supposed to be demilitarised — or any move to push Palestinians into Egypt would threaten its four-decade-old peace agreement with Israel.

Israel’s previous ground assaults, backed by devastating bombardment since October, levelled huge parts of northern Gaza and the southern city of Khan Younis and caused widespread civilian deaths, even after evacuation orders were given for those areas.

Israel’s military says it plans to direct the civilians in Rafah to “humanitarian islands” in central Gaza before the planned offensive. It says it has ordered thousands of tents to shelter people. But it hasn’t given details on its plan. It’s unclear if it’s logistically possible to move such a large population all at once without widespread suffering among a population already exhausted by multiple moves and months of bombardment.

Moreover, UN officials say an attack on Rafah will collapse the aid operation that is keeping the population across the Gaza Strip alive, and potentially push Palestinians into greater starvation and mass death.

Some entry points have been opened in the north, and the US has promised that a port to bring in supplies by sea will be ready in weeks. But the majority of food, medicine and other material enters Gaza from Egypt through Rafah or the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing — traffic that is likely to be impossible during an invasion.

The US has said that Israel should use pinpoint operations against Hamas inside Rafah without a major ground assault.

After Netanyahu’s latest comments, US National Security spokesperson John Kirby said, “We don’t want to see a major ground operation in Rafah. Certainly, we don’t want to see operations that haven’t factored in the safety, security of” those taking refuge in the town.

What it means for Netanyahu?

The question of attacking Rafah has heavy political repercussions for Netanyahu. His government could be threatened with collapse if he doesn’t go through with it. Some of his ultranationalist and conservative religious governing partners could pull out of the coalition, if he signs onto a cease-fire deal that prevents an assault.

Critics of Netanyahu say that he’s more concerned with keeping his government intact and staying in power than national interest, an accusation he denies.

One of his coalition members, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, said Tuesday that accepting a cease-fire deal and not carrying out a Rafah operation would amount to Israel “raising a white flag” and giving victory to Hamas.

On the other hand, Netanyahu risks increasing Israel’s international isolation — and alienating its top ally, the United States — if it does attack Rafah. His vocal refusals to be swayed by world pressure and his promises to launch the operation could be aimed at placating his political allies even as he considers a deal.

Or he could bet that international anger will remain largely rhetorical if he goes ahead with the attack. The Biden administration has used progressively tougher language to express concerns over Netanyahu’s conduct of the war, but it has also continued to provide weapons to Israel’s military and diplomatic support.

With inputs from AP