Is Trump planning an oil blockade of Venezuela to bring Maduro down?

Is the Trump administration planning to bring down the Nicolás Maduro regime?

The United States has announced that it has seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, a move that Caracas has decried as “an act of international piracy”.

The development comes just days after US President Donald Trump in an interview said that Maduro’s “days are numbered”.

Trump, however, declined to specify whether the US would send troops to Venezuela.v"I don’t comment on that," Trump said. “I wouldn’t say that one way or the other.”

Tensions between the two countries have risen in recent months as the Trump administration has conducted strikes on a number of boats it claims were carrying drugs in the Caribbean. The administration has attacked nearly two dozen boats with around 90 people being killed.

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But what happened? What do we know? Let’s take a closer look.

US seizes oil tanker

The US seized an oil tanker heading to Cuba, which is also under sanctions from America. The vessel, the Skipper, was taken in international waters. It was carrying a large amount of Venezuelan crude oil.

“We’ve just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela – a large tanker, very large, the largest one ever seized actually,” Trump told the press. “It was seized for a very good reason,” he added. Trump claimed that the operation was led by the US Coast Guard. “I assume we’re going to keep the oil,” Trump added.

According to CNBC, the Skipper is a Guyana-flagged “Very Large Crude Carrier” (VLCC). The Skipper left Venezuela’s main oil port of Jose between December 4 and 5 after loading some 1.8 million barrels of Venezuela’s Merey heavy crude.

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It transferred about 200,000 barrels near Curaçao to the Panama-flagged Neptune 6 bound for Cuba before the seizure, according to satellite information analysed by TankerTrackers.com and internal data from Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA.

Guyana’s maritime authority said Skipper was falsely flying the country’s flag. The vessel had transported Venezuelan oil to Asia between 2021 and 2022, the PDVSA data showed.

This is the Trump administration’s first known action against a Venezuela-related tanker since he ordered a massive military build-up in the region.

US Attorney General Pam Bondi said US agencies including the FBI, Homeland Security Investigations and the US Coast Guard, with support from the Department of Defence, had “executed a seizure warrant for a crude oil tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran”.

She claimed the tanker had been sanctioned by the US for “multiple years” due to its “involvement in an illicit oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organisations”.

She said the seizure “was conducted safely and securely,” and added that “our investigation alongside the Department of Homeland Security to prevent the transport of sanctioned oil continues.”

How has Venezuela responded?

“Under these circumstances, the true reasons for the prolonged aggression against Venezuela have finally been revealed … It has always been about our natural resources, our oil, our energy, the resources that belong exclusively to the Venezuelan people.” It said it “would defend its sovereignty, natural resources, and national dignity with absolute determination”.

The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela since 2019. Much of Venezuela’s economy depends on its crude oil, of which it has some of the world’s biggest reserves.

The country last month exported over 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day. According to data firm Kpler, around half of its output goes to China which received about 80 per cent of total exports or some 746,000 barrels per day. Venezuela also exports around 132,000 barrels per day to the US.

What experts say

Experts say an oil blockade could deal a crippling blow to the economy and precipitate Maduro’s departure.

The Telegraph quoted Juan González, former chief Latin America adviser to Joe Biden, as saying that he had called for the US to station two navy destroyers off Venezuela’s coast “and even impose an oil blockade”.

González said the Trump administration could potentially endorse a recall referendum in 2027 or even threaten “real hardline consequences” as a result of the blockade.
“I think it is potentially a viable option where there should be a very credible and aggressive snapback associated with it,” González said. “Imposing an oil blockade would shut down the entire economy.”

“It’s less aggressive [than a land strike] but it’s still considered an act of war,” González added.

“He [Trump] could take unilateral action by blocking oil tankers from leaving or entering the country, and that I think would precipitate Maduro’s departure.”

“There aren’t many details about the seizure of this tanker, apart from the president’s confirmation,” correspondent Al Hanna told Al Jazeera.

“This does mark a massive escalation in terms of US action against Venezuela. It has been reported that President Trump has been pondering for weeks now what kind of action to take in Venezuela and has been very clear that he is contemplating regime change,” he said.

Maduro remains unbowed

Maduro, who succeeded Hugo Chávez in 2013, remains unbowed. The Venezuelan president earlier called on citizens to behave like “warriors” and be ready “to smash the teeth of the North American empire if necessary”.

Maduro has alleged that the US military build-up is aimed at overthrowing him and gaining control of the OPEC nation’s oil resources, which are the world’s largest crude reserves.

Concerns about the attacks on the boats increased this month after reports that the commander overseeing one of the operations ordered a second strike that killed two survivors. There is growing concern that the Trump administration’s strikes may be illegal.

There has been little or no proof made public that the boats are carrying drugs or that it was necessary to blow them out of the water rather than stop them, seize their cargo and question those on board.

Many think the Trump administration is after regime change in Venezuela.

Opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was awarded the Nobel Prize on Wednesday, has openly called on the Trump administration to overthrow Maduro. She has also talked about privatising Venezuela’s state-run oil, gas and infrastructure companies.

With inputs from agencies