 "Is Donald Trump taking a step back on Iran?")
Is Donald Trump taking a step back on Iran?
The US president has said that he has received assurances that the killing is stopping in Iran. Trump’s statement comes after Tehran has claimed that executions are out of the question.
Many were worried that the Trump administration was looking to conduct strikes on Tehran after taking out Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela.
But what happened? What has Trump said? Has the US president changed his mind on Iran?
Let’s take a closer look.
What has Trump said?
Trump has claimed that the Iranian government has assured him that the killings have stopped.
“They’ve said the killing has stopped and the executions won’t take place – there were supposed to be a lot of executions today and that the executions won’t take place – and we’re going to find out,” Trump said.
Asked if US military action was now off the table, Trump replied: “We’re going to watch it and see what the process is.”
This comes after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Fox News: “There is no plan” by Iran to execute people in retaliation for the anti-government protests. “Hanging is out of the question,” Araghchi claimed.
According to reports, the family of Erfan Soltani, the first Iranian protester sentenced to death since the unrest against the Islamic regime began, has been told that his execution has been postponed.
Trump in recent days had claimed that help is on the way. He urged Iranian patriots to “keep protesting” and to take over the institutions. Trump also claimed that he had cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials until the “senseless killing” had ceased.
There are reports that thousands of protesters have been killed in clashes with the Iranian security forces. Trump also claimed the US would take “very strong action” if the regime hangs protesters.
He also urged protesters to “save the names of the killers and abusers”, saying they would “pay a big price”.
The White House earlier this week said Trump was unafraid to use military force on Iran. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News that, though diplomacy remained the “first option”, Trump was “unafraid to use the lethal force and might of the United States military if and when he deems that necessary”.
Trump had also announced a 25 per cent tariff for any countries doing business with Iran. “Effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” he wrote on social media.
From last week, he claimed the US government was set to go to the “rescue” of Iranian protesters if the regime used violence. The US was “locked and loaded and ready to go”, Trump added.
According to reports, Iran closed off its airspace on the intervening night of January 14 and 15. It came amid speculation that the US could conduct air strikes on Iran amid rising tensions and the ongoing nationwide protests.
The US Aviation Authority noted that most flights were restricted in Iranian airspace between 1:45 am and 4:00 am local time, and from 4:44 am to 7:00 am on Thursday. This applied to all commercial flights that did not have permission from Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation (CAO).
Al Jazeera quoted Safe Airspace, a website run by the aviation safety organisation OpsGroup, as saying the development could be a sign of “further security or military activity”. It warned of the “risk of missile launches or heightened air defence, increasing the risk of misidentification of civil traffic”.
The closure lasted for nearly five hours, after which Iran reopened its airspace. Domestic flights were seen in the sky again once restrictions were lifted. It makes sense that Tehran is taking precautions. In 2020, Iran’s air defences shot down a Ukraine International Airlines flight shortly after take-o Jatin ff. All 176 people on board were killed.
Has the US president changed his mind?
Possibly.
Trump has recently referred to the US attempt to rescue US hostages in Iran under the Jimmy Carter administration, which went horribly wrong.
Eight US servicemen died after a helicopter and EC-130 transport aircraft collided on the ground in Iran’s eastern desert.
“I don’t know that he would have won the election,” Trump told journalists from The New York Times. “But he certainly had no chance after that disaster.”
Experts say predicting what Trump will do is a fool’s game.
“It’s hard to tell exactly what course of action Trump is likely to take,” Will Todman, senior fellow in the Middle East programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the BBC. “Given we don’t know what his full aim is here.”
“I think the risks of regime change are so great that I don’t yet believe that is his primary objective here,” he said. “It could be more concessions in the nuclear talks. It could be to stop the crackdown. It also could be to try to implement reforms that lead to… some sort of sanctions relief.”
The Wall Street Journal quoted unnamed sources as saying that Vice President JD Vance had been urging Trump to pursue diplomacy with Iran.
“The smartest thing for them to have done,” Vance told reporters last Thursday, “is for them to actually have a real negotiation with the United States about what we need to see when it comes to their nuclear programme.”
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a key Trump ally, is among those urging Trump to attack Iran “sooner rather than later”. Graham told reporters that he believes Trump “is serious when he says help is on the way”, and that “an attack on the regime is the only help that really matters.”
Some say a limited strike could do the trick.
“All Trump has to do is shoot to cause panic inside the regime,” said Bilal Saab, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. “A US strike could embolden the protesters and distract the regime,” he added.
However, he warned this could embolden the regime.
“It could harden the resolve of the regime and its still-large support base across the country. A rallying around the flag wouldn’t be shocking,” he said. “That’s more likely… if the strike is symbolic or a one-off.”
Others warn that the regime is far from ready to collapse.
“There is clearly a cohesive government and military and security service in Iran,” Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a senior associate at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, told The Guardian.
“The government is showing it doesn’t have any red lines: it is going to secure its borders and streets, and the extraordinary number of body bags reveals its determination to do so,” she added.
A number of nations, including India, have called on their citizens to leave Iran.
With input from agencies
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