 "Why are fears of an Iran attack against Israel rising? What could happen next?")
The war in West Asia may kick up a notch. The United States has restricted travel for its employees in Israel amid fears of an attack by Iran. In fact, a Wall Street Journal has published a report stating that Tehran would strike in the next 24 to 48 hours in retaliation to Israel’s move of striking the Iranian consulate in Syria 11 days ago, killing 13 people.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken has also spoken to his counterparts in China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other European nations to ask them to dissuade Iran from striking Israel, saying it was not in anyone’s interest and that countries should urge Iran not to escalate.
As the situation tenses, we take a closer look at the possible scenarios of an Iran strike.
A strike is coming?
Since Israel carried out an airstrike in Damascus, Syria, targeting the Iranian consulate and killing 13 people last week, Tehran has vowed to take action and retaliate. The airstrike on 1 April was particularly dramatic as it killed two generals and five other officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force. Moreover, it happened at a diplomatic enclave, which Israel had not previously conducted operations against, even in Damascus.
Following the strike, Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian had said that Israel “will be punished and that America is responsible for the regime’s attack on the Iranian embassy and must be held accountable.”
And on Thursday, Iran’s mission to the United Nations also suggested that any Iranian military response to the deadly Israeli air raid on the Iranian consulate in Damascus could have been averted if the UN Security Council had denounced Israel’s attack.
Following the Israeli airstrike and the subsequent threats of a retaliatory strike, US intelligence has revealed that Iran could be poised to launch high-precision strikes using ballistic missiles or drones on targets inside Israel. A source quoted in the report said it was a matter of “when, not if,” Iran strikes, though it is less clear whether Tehran would take direct action or rely on its proxy network .
Impact Shorts
More ShortsA Bloomberg report citing US intelligence said that Iran was drawing up plans to target Kirya, the Israeli military headquarters in Tel Aviv. According to the report, other potential targets are air bases in Palmachim in central Israel or Meron in the north, as well as the Knesset [parliament] and prime minister’s office in Jerusalem.
Even Wall Street Journal citing a source reported that Israel is preparing for a direct attack from Iran on southern or northern Israel as soon as the next 24 to 48 hours.
And fears of an imminent attack are rising as social media accounts close to the Revolutionary Guard are posting videos of simulated missile attacks on Israel’s Haifa airport and its nuclear facility in Dimona.
The American newspaper further reported that Iran could be preparing an attack in Golan — the disputed territory annexed by Israel from Syria — or even Gaza. The daily speaking to officials said another option Iran was considering is a strike at Israeli embassies, mostly in the Arab world.
**Also read: Israel-Palestine conflict: Which nations have been drawn in?**How Iran may strike Israel?
While there’s no confirmation of an attack happening, intelligence officials are of the opinion that Iran would not carry out a direct attack against Israel, as it would be considered as an act of war and drawing out a full-fledged Israeli response.
In such a situation, experts note that Tehran would use ballistic long-range missiles that it has in its arsenal to take on Israel. “A kinetic attack using ballistic missiles or drones against Israeli homeland targets would be the most impactful, and risky, option available to Tehran,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a director at the Atlantic Council, in a recent security assessment.
However, Iran also has a second option — of using its proxies, such as the Hamas, the Hezbollah, the Katib Hezbollah, the Houthis , or the Badr Organisation to carry out attacks over the border. The Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has a huge stockpile of missiles they could use to target Israel. However, it appears that the Hezbollah has been hesitant in committing to full-scale war with Israel.
How are tensions rising?
The possibility of an Iran attack against Israel has put the world on alert. The United States is seeking help from other countries to deter Tehran from carrying out a retaliatory strike and even vowed “iron-clad” backing to Israel.
US president Joe Biden said, “They’re (Iran) threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel. As I told Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again, ironclad. We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”
Israel has also responded to these threats, with Foreign Minister Israel Katz saying on X: “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran.”
At the same time, the US secretary of state Antony Blinken has spoken to China’s Wang Yi, urging him to rein in Iran.
“We have also engaged with European allies and partners over the past few days and urged them as well to send a clear message to Iran: that escalation is not in Iran’s interest, it’s not in the region’s interest and it’s not in the world’s interest,” said State Department spokesperson Matt Miller.
Russia, Germany and Britain on Thursday also urged countries in the region to show restraint. German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock called on her Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian to urge “maximum restraint” to avoid further escalation.
In fact, Germany’s Lufthansa has extended its suspension of flights to the Iranian capital, saying it would probably not fly to Tehran before 13 April.
And on Friday (12 April), the US has restricted travel for its employees in Israel, asking staff members staff not to travel outside the greater Jerusalem, Tel Aviv or Be’er Sheva areas “out of an abundance of caution”.
The UK Foreign Office has also updated its travel advice for Israel to state that the country’s government has raised the “possibility of an attack on Israeli territory from Iran, and that such an attack could trigger wider escalation”.
But for all the concern and fear, some experts note that there won’t be any Iran attack. It is, in fact, part of a wider effort to wage psychological warfare against Israel, and possibly probe for weaknesses in its air defence, by making threats aimed at putting Israel’s military in a constant state of alert.
“Despite all the noise made by the Iranian regime, a direct strike against Israel by its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains highly improbable,” Kasra Aarabi, an expert on the Iranian military at the United Against a Nuclear Iran advocacy group, told The Telegraph.
With inputs from agencies
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