Crops hit, dam water at dead levels: How Pakistan is suffering after Indus Waters Treaty suspension

Pakistan is drying up, quite literally.

Following the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, in which 26 people lost their lives, India had taken the harsh but just step of placing the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, with Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri declaring that the agreement would remain ‘in abeyance’ until Pakistan took ‘credible and irrevocable’ steps to cease its support for cross-border terrorism.

At the time, many questioned if the move would hurt Pakistan. And the effects of India’s decision is now being seen and felt in the neighbouring country — as river waters have reached ‘dead’ levels, imperilling Pakistan’s kharif season.

Pakistan’s waters at dead levels

Official data reveals that the total water released from the Indus River System to Pakistan is almost 20 per cent down compared to same date last year. In the Sindh region, the water flow stood at 1,33,000, cusecs compared to 1,70,000 cusecs last year. Similarly, in Pakistan’s Punjab region, the water flow stood at 1,10,500 cusecs, down 20 per cent from 1,30,800 cusecs on June 20 last year.

Even in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region, the water flow is down to 2,600 cusecs on June 20 from 2,900 cusecs on the same day last year.

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And this has been an ongoing situation since India placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. For instance, on June 16, the ‘Daily Water Situation’ report released by the Pakistan government’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) showed the total water released from the Indus River System to Pakistan’s Sindh province was 1.33 lakh cusecs against 1.6 lakh on the same day last year — a drop of 16.87 per cent.

Furthermore, the water levels at the two major reservoirs in Pakistan — Tarbela on the Indus and Mangla on the Jhelum — have dropped to dead storage.

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Impact on Pakistan

But what does it exactly mean for Pakistan’s rivers to reach dead levels and how will it hurt Pakistan? Dead storage levels refers to the water volume stored below the lowest outlet level, essentially unusable for typical water supply purposes. This limits its use for irrigation or drinking.

Pakistan’s water in reservoirs reaching dead levels will have a significant impact on the country’s kharif (summer crops) sowing season. In fact, an India Today report states that kharif farming has already witnessed a dip of more than 20 per cent owing to receiving 1.14 lakh cusecs of water as opposed to 1.43 lakh cusecs a day last year.

The production of kharif crops, namely cotton and maize, has declined by over 30 per cent and 15 per cent in Pakistan, respectively. The production of wheat has also dropped by around nine per cent owing to the water shortage in the country.

This, in turn, will hurt an already beleaguered Pakistani economy that is heavily reliant on agriculture. Pakistan’s agricultural sector contributes 23 per cent to the country’s national income and with production of kharif crops dropping, it will hurt Pakistan’s bottomline.

Experts note that the situation might improve once the monsoon rains arrive but until then Pakistan will be quenched for thirst.

Parched Pakistan writes to India

And staring at a water crisis has led Pakistan to write not one but four letters to India, asking it to reinstate the Indus Waters Treaty that was first signed in 1960.

Multiple news reports citing sources have said that the secretary of Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources, Syed Ali Murtaza, has written four letters to India urging it to reconsider its decision to stop the Indus Waters Treaty.

The sources state that India’s Jal Shakti Ministry has sent all the four letters from Pakistan to the Ministry of External Affairs. And such dire are the circumstances that Pakistan also requested the World Bank , which brokered the deal, to intervene in the matter. However, the World Bank refused to step into the issue.

Significance of Indus Waters Treaty and India’s pause on it

Pakistan’s water woes arose when India announced that it was putting the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance in response to the Pahalgam terror attack. Signed in September 1960, the agreement governed the allocation of water from the Indus River system between the two countries.

Under the arrangement, India was granted rights to the Eastern Rivers: the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, while Pakistan received the Western Rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

Approximately 70 per cent of the water in the system was allotted to Pakistan. Under the IWT, India was obligated to allow the flow of Western Rivers to Pakistan, with limited rights for agriculture, transport, and hydroelectric projects that do not obstruct river flow.

New Delhi’s decision to pause the treaty caused much outrage in Pakistan with Islamabad deeming the action to be “an act of war”, adding that it was prepared to respond, “with full force across the complete spectrum of national power”. And on June 17, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chief Bilawal Bhutto Zardari was quoted as telling German broadcaster DW Urdu that any attempt by India to block Pakistan’s water supply would be seen as an existential threat, leaving Pakistan with no option but war.

Following India’s decision to pause the treaty, New Delhi is also conducting a feasibility study for constructing a 113 km-long canal for redirecting surplus flow from the three western rivers of the Indus water system to Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan.

With inputs from agencies