India closes the tap on Indus Waters Treaty: How this may lead to energy and food crisis in Pakistan

“Those behind this heinous act will be brought to justice… they will not be spared! Their evil agenda will never succeed. Our resolve to fight terrorism is unshakable and it will get even stronger,” said Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemning the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, which saw the killing of 26 people, mostly tourists .

But everyone wondered what exactly would be India’s response to the dastardly attack?

And the answer became clear by Wednesday evening (April 23) after Modi’s Cabinet Committee on Security meeting. It was then announced that New Delhi would keep the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 in abeyance with immediate effect as part of its five measures taken against Pakistan , who New Delhi alleges is responsible for the tragedy. In its announcement, the government declared that the treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan “credibly and irreversibly” abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.

But what exactly is the Indus Waters treaty, and what does this decision mean for Pakistan?

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWt) is a deal brokered by the World Bank between India and Pakistan on September 19, 1960. Signed in Karachi by then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and then Pakistan President Ayub Khan, it determines the distribution of the waters of the Indus and its tributaries — Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Jhelum, Chenab and Kabul.

As per the IWT, India enjoys “unrestricted access” to three Eastern rivers — the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, whereas Pakistan has access to the Western rivers of Indus, Chenab, Jhelum. It’s important to note here that the treaty allows New Delhi to extract water from the western rivers for certain non-consumptive, agricultural, domestic use and hydroelectric power generation. Provision under Article III (4) of the treaty states that India “shall not store any water of, or construct any storage works on, the Western Rivers,” other than those permitted by the provisions.

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When India and Pakistan signed the deal in 1960 after nine years of negotiations, former US President Dwight Eisenhower had described it as “one bright spot … in a very depressing world picture that we see so often.”

So, how does pausing the IWT hurt Pakistan?

On Wednesday (April 23), the Narendra Modi government announced that it would be pausing the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan after the Pahalgam attack in Jammu and Kashmir — security agencies note that there the attack was perpetrated by seven gunmen of which four-five were from Pakistan.

Notably, India’s decision comes shortly after former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal had called for the suspension of the IWT, stating that “blood and water” can’t go together. In a post on X, he wrote, “It is time to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty indefinitely as a truly meaningful response to the latest terrorist outrage in Pahalgam instigated by Pakistan. We have earlier said that blood and water can’t go together. Let’s act on our own declared position. This will be a strategic response.”

But how exactly does keeping the IWT at abeyance hurt Pakistan? According to PK Saxena, former Indian Commissioner for Indus Waters, it gives New Delhi more options to use the waters of the Indus River system.

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“The decision of keeping the IWT in abeyance gives several options to India. For instance, India can immediately stop sharing of water flow data with Pakistan. There will be no design or operational restrictions on India for use of water of Indus and its tributaries. Also, India can now create storage on Western Rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. India can also undertake reservoir flushing (a technique used to remove accumulated sediment from reservoirs by releasing water through low-level outlets to scour out the sediment and transport it downstream) on the Kishanganga project, which will increase life of the dam.”

Other experts concur on this view. They note that the rivers that fall under the purview of the IWT are vital to Pakistan for its agricultural purposes. In fact, data reveals that Pakistan relies on the Indus River and its tributaries for approximately 80 per cent of its irrigated agriculture, which contributes 21 per cent to its GDP and supports 45 per cent of its workforce.

By pausing the IWT, India is effectively halting the flow of 39 billion cubic metres of water annually, threatening the neighbouring country’s water availability. A disruption in the water supply, especially in the summer months, will not only affect Pakistan’s agriculture but also have an effect on its trade, employment and food prices. Industries such as textiles, sugar and rice milling will be impacted owing to a water scarcity, which, in turn, will potentially reduce exports and worsen Pakistan’s balance of payments.

The move will also leave Pakistan sweltering in the heat. That’s because the Indus and its tributaries are the backbone of Pakistan’s energy industry, powering hydroelectric dams like Tarbela and Mangla, which account for nearly 30 per cent of the total electricity generated. A disruption in the water flow will impact power generation, with analysts predicting that it could cause widespread blackouts lasting up to 16 hours daily.

The Indus Waters Treaty also places design restrictions on building structures like dams on Indus and its tributaries. In the past, Pakistan has used the treaty to raise objections. But as New Delhi has paused the pact, it will not be obligated to take these concerns on board.

Has India ever done anything like this in the past?

Notably, the Indus Waters Treaty has survived three wars — 1965, 1971 and Kargil — and multiple terror attacks until the Pahalgam one. In 2019, following the Pulwama attack, which claimed the lives of 40 Central Reserve Police Force personnel, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly told the Cabinet Committee on Security that “blood and water can’t flow together.”

But at the time, India chose not to implement it.

What can Pakistan do?

It’s important to note here that the Indus Waters Treaty lacks an exit clause — meaning that neither party can end it unilaterally.

However, as Indian Express notes in a report that while the Treaty cannot be exited, it does contain a dispute resolution mechanism: Article IX, along with Annexures F and G, lays out procedures for raising grievances — first before the Permanent Indus Commission, then a neutral expert, and eventually, a forum of arbitrators.

Pakistan is yet to issue an official response to India’s suspension of the IWT.

With inputs from agencies