 "Palestinian children queue for donated food in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip. Some hope that the Lebanon ceasefire will bring about a change in Gaza too. AP")
In West Asia and across the world, people heaved a sigh of relief when US President Joe Biden on Wednesday (November 27) announced that Israel accepted a ceasefire in Lebanon for a period of 60 days, effectively putting an end to the fighting with Hezbollah.
In Gaza, the news of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon brought hope to some whereas for many others it gave them a sense of abandonment. Some speaking to Al Jazeera said that while they were pleased for their “brothers in Lebanon for reaching a truce”, they were waiting for their own ceasefire.
But it seems that their wait may not be too long; that’s because US President Joe Biden said that the US will make another push for a ceasefire and the release of hostages. Moreover, Hamas has also shown signs that it is ready for a truce in Gaza. “We have informed mediators in Egypt, Qatar and Turkey that Hamas is ready for a ceasefire agreement and a serious deal to exchange prisoners,” a senior Hamas official told the AFP news agency, at the same time accusing Israel of obstructing an agreement.
The question then is — can a truce be negotiated? Will peace return to the area? We analyse the situation.
A truce in Lebanon
After almost 14 months of fighting, Israel agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon — a move aimed at reducing tensions in the region more than a year into a multi-front conflict.
Under the terms of the deal , Israel would gradually withdraw its forces from Lebanon, and Hezbollah would fully withdraw north of the Litani River. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army would “deploy and take control over their own territory,” US President Joe Biden said, adding that the United States, France and other allies have pledged to support the deal.
Shortly after the announcement was made, tens of thousands of Lebanese displaced by the war headed back to their devastated towns and villages.
Renewed push for ceasefire in Gaza
Shortly after the ceasefire in Lebanon came into effect, eyes turned towards Gaza, with many wondering if a similar move could be possible there.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that Biden would now push for an elusive ceasefire in Gaza. Speaking to MSNBC , Sullivan said, “President Biden intends to begin that work today by having his envoys engage with Turkey, Qatar, Egypt and other actors in the region.
“We believe that this is the beginning of an opportunity for a more stable Middle East in which Israel’s security is assured and US interests are secured,” he added.
On X, Biden reiterated the same stance, saying that “over the coming days the United States will make another push” for a Gaza deal.
And it’s not just the US that is renewing their efforts to broker a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. Reuters reports that an Egyptian security delegation will travel to Israel on Thursday in an effort to reach a Gaza ceasefire deal.
Hamas calls for a ceasefire
Israel’s archenemy, Hamas , too, indicated that it was ready to discuss a ceasefire after the Lebanon truce. “We have informed mediators in Egypt, Qatar and Turkey that Hamas is ready for a ceasefire agreement and a serious deal to exchange prisoners,” a senior Hamas official told the AFP news agency.
Later, Sami Abu Zuhri speaking to Reuters blamed Israel for the delay in a deal. “Hamas showed high flexibility to reach an agreement and it is still committed to that position and is interested in reaching an agreement that ends the war in Gaza,” Abu Zuhri said.
“The problem was always with (Israel PM Benjamin) Netanyahu who has always escaped from reaching an agreement,” he claimed.
A Gaza ceasefire deal won’t be easy
However, it seems that Israel is in no mood to negotiate with Hamas, as Israeli leaders show no signs of wanting to ease up on the militant group. Some ministers have also made it clear their war aims for Gaza are very different than those for Lebanon.
For instance, Israel’s Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter said, “Gaza will never be a threat to the state of Israel again…We will reach a decisive victory there. Lebanon is different. Are we at the beginning of the end (of the Gaza campaign)? Definitely not. We still have a lot to do.”
Even experts noted that a Gaza deal was far tougher to push owing to Israel’s different aims. Mairav Zonszein, an expert at the International Crisis Group, told AFP, “Because Hezbollah’s capacities are stronger than Hamas’, Israel had no interest in expanding its ground operations to cover all of Lebanon.
“It was clear to the (Israeli) army from the minute that they escalated against Hezbollah that it wanted to limit the operation because the cost could be much higher than the utility,” she said.
Ofer Shelah, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) think tank, noted that a ceasefire in Gaza would not serve Netanyahu’s purposes, as it could tear apart his government, which is packed with war hawks — some of whom have denounced the Lebanon deal and want to take over Gaza.
“I think it’s in his political interest for the war to go on because the end of the war in Gaza could really threaten this coalition,” said Shelah to Reuters.
What comes next for Gaza
The ceasefire in Lebanon will now allow for Israel to resupply and refocus on Hamas. Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank, said that if all goes well in Lebanon, Israel would shift its units back to Gaza. “The (Israeli army) will be able to move more units back to Gaza, and definitely this might bring a change,” he said, hoping it would push Hamas to release the hostages.
This doesn’t bode well for the thousands who continue to suffer in Gaza. As Mamdouh Yonis, who is currently living in Khan Younis after being displaced from the southern city of Rafah, told AP, “The situation will be worse because the pressure will be more on Gaza.”
With inputs from agencies