Why a full scale Israel-Hezbollah war may not be one-sided

Israel and Hezbollah seem to be headed to war.

The cross-border conflict, which began after Hamas’ 7 October attack, could devolve into a full-scale battle any day now.

On Monday (September 23) , Israel killed nearly 500 people including women and children in airstrikes on Lebanon and injured another 1,645 people.

Hezbollah has responded by firing rockets at Israeli air bases, while world leaders and the UN have called for calm.

Though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to pursue a policy of ‘de-escalation through escalation,’ Hezbollah has both the manpower and the weapons to make life miserable for Israel in case of a full-scale battle.

The two sides fought a 34-day war in 2006 that ended in a draw.

Let’s take a closer look at why the war between Israel and Hezbollah may not be one-sided.

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Hezbollah’s military capabilities

Hezbollah is the Arab world’s most significant paramilitary force with a robust internal structure as well as a sizable arsenal. Backed by Iran, its fighters have gained experience during Syria’s 13-year conflict in which they helped tip the balance of power in favour of government forces.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, had boasted that the group has 100,000 fighters.

He claimed his group had turned down offers from allies in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran to send combatants.

Military analyst and retired Lebanese army general Khalil Helou said Hezbollah could probably “mobilise more than 100,000 men, counting reservists.”

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However, he noted “that doesn’t mean they are all ready and trained for fighting.”

However, other estimates put its troop strength at less than half that.

Israel wants Hezbollah to withdraw its elite Radwan Force from the border so tens of thousands Israelis displaced from northern towns and villages can return home.

Hezbollah holds a vast arsenal of mostly small, portable and unguided surface-to-surface artillery rockets, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. The US and Israel estimate Hezbollah and other militant groups in Lebanon have some 150,000 missiles and rockets.

Experts say Hezbollah has a wide range of unguided heavy artillery rockets, ballistic missiles, as well as anti-aircraft, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles.

Those include Falaq-1 and Falaq-2 unguided rockets, which have a range of about 11 kilometres (seven miles) – according to a Hezbollah artillery officer interviewed by the group’s al-Manar channel earlier this month.

Artillery rockets, including Falaq models, “are not accurate” and “have a margin of error of up to three kilometres,” according to Riad Kahwaji, head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.

Helou said Hezbollah has Iranian ballistic missiles that it has yet to use.

They include the Fateh 110, a precision-guided missile with a range of around 300 kilometres, more than sufficient to reach Tel Aviv and Jerusalem from within Lebanon.

Hezbollah has expanded the size and quality of its arsenal since it last fought an all-out war with Israel in 2006.

“The group in 2006 reportedly had about 15,000 rockets, while unofficial estimates in recent years suggest that this number has multiplied by almost 10 times,” said Dina Arakji, an associate analyst at Control Risks consultancy.

Hezbollah also has been working on precision-guided missiles.

Hezbollah has been launching drones towards targets in northern Israel and the Golan Heights.

The group has said it sent surveillance drones on three occasions to film military sites, including the Ramat David airbase about 45 kilometres from the border.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said local production contributed to his group’s large drone stockpile.

“Kamikaze drones give a tactical advantage due to their high level of autonomy and have the ability to be launched from anywhere,” said Arakji, noting they were inexpensive single-use weapons.

Helou said Hezbollah also had Shahed 136 attack drones and other Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles, some “with double guidance – electro-optical and GPS”.

Hezbollah has previously launched drones into Israel and in 2006, hit an Israeli warship with a surface-to-sea missile. Its forces also have assault rifles, heavy machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades, roadside bombs and other weaponry.

During the current conflict, Hezbollah has frequently used Russian-made portable anti-tank Kornet missiles. More rarely, it has launched Burkan rockets that, according to Nasrallah, can carry a warhead that weighs between 300 kilograms and 500 kilograms.

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has introduced new weapons including a surface-to-surface missile with a range of 10 kilometers and a warhead weighing 50 kilograms.

Nasrallah has said previously that in an all-out war, Israel must expect “us on land, by sea and by air”.

All of Israel’s coasts, “all its ports, all its boats and ships” would be affected, he said.

Helou said Hezbollah had Russian anti-ship Yakhont missiles with a range of 300 kilometres, and Chinese-made Silkworm missiles.

Those two weapons, “which are very precise and extremely fast, could be used against targets at sea, including drilling platforms”, Helou said.

Hezbollah has announced it downed several Israeli Hermes 450 and Hermes 900 drones with surface-to-air missiles during the Gaza war, and has said it used the weapons to target Israeli warplanes.

Helou said Israeli aircraft have flown at low altitudes in an attempt to detect anti-aircraft missiles that could be used against their drones or planes.

But “it’s not just about having anti-aircraft missiles – you have to know how to use them effectively,” he said.

Arakji noted that “anti-aircraft missiles can put pressure on Israel’s multi-tier air defence system”.

“While the missiles do not significantly challenge Israel’s air supremacy,” she added, they will require the Israeli army “to adjust its mode of operations”.

Experts have said Hezbollah likely has an extensive network of underground tunnels in south Lebanon, as well as in the eastern Bekaa valley, near the border with Syria.

But it has evacuated positions in south and east Lebanon after Israeli threats of reprisals, a source close to the group told AFP.

Israel’s military capabilities

Israel is one of the best-armed nations in the wider Middle East. Its air force includes the advanced American F-35 fighter jet, missile defence batteries including the American-made Patriot, the Iron Dome rocket-defence system and a pair of missile-defence systems developed with the U.S., the Arrow and David’s Sling.

Its military has long been supported by the United States, with $3.3 billion in annual funding, plus $500 million toward missile defence technology.

Israel has armoured personnel carriers and tanks, and a fleet of drones and other technology available to support any street-to-street battles.

A pioneer in drone technology, Israel has Heron pilotless planes capable of flying for more than 30 hours, enough for far-flung operations. Its Delilah loitering munition has an estimated range of 250 kilometres.

Israel has some 170,000 troops typically on active duty and has called up some 360,000 reservists for the war — three-fourths of its estimated capacity, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British think tank. With the war now in its fifth month, many of those reservists have returned home.

Israel has also long maintained an undeclared nuclear weapons programme.

Though Israel clearly has the firepower advantage, Hezbollah could inflict a lot of pain in case out of an all-out war.

What do experts say?

That it’s not just as simple as the two militaries matching up.

Hezbollah has other cards to play as well.

First, it’s part of what is known in Israel as the ‘Ring of Fire’ – comprising a number of militant groups led by Iran_._

CNN noted that Israel is surrounded by Gaza, Yemen, Syria and Iraq – all of whom are hostile to it and have worked in tandem to isolate Israel after the October 7 attack.

The piece also noted how Hezbollah has, for years, been careful to engage in asymmetric warfare against a more powerful enemy.

It has also sought to compromise Israel’s Iron Dome by firing a barrage of rockets at it.

The piece noted that the question is whether Hezbollah can outthink and outfight Israel’s high-tech weapons systems – which remains an open question.

A piece in Sky News noted that Hezbollah’s capability and the resolve at utilising its large stock of missiles could set the stage for a massive war that could set West Asia alight.

“War is not an exact science. Hezbollah is a disciplined organisation, but is now in disarray. It has been provoked like never before by Israel in recent days,” the piece noted. “Could it still be goaded into much more devastating action? If it retains some ability to unleash its firepower in earnest, its leaders may still be tempted to do so. This remains a very dangerous moment for the region and further afield.”

A piece in the Times of Israel noted that the, flaw in Israel’s deterrence strategy, which it employed for decades, was proved by dint of Hamas’ 7 October attack.

“Now Israel is trying to use what military theorists call compellence — forcing an adversary to stop actions they have already begun. It requires a deep understanding of the other side’s calculations, a ‘nuanced understanding of the needs, fears, capabilities, interests, and will of the target state’ in the words of US Army War College scholar Tami Davis Biddle.

“And the coercer must be able to articulate the demand in ways the target state can comprehend and comply with.”

“The purpose of any damage done to an enemy is to signal that there will be much more on the way if it doesn’t change its behaviour in a specific way.

The problem it contended, is that Nasrallah might decide war with Israel is inevitable and unavoidable.

Others noted that the IDF, after fighting for nearly a year in Gaza, is depleted of its strength.

“A full-scale ground war between a tired, divided Israeli military and an experienced, angry Hezbollah inside southern Lebanon would likely be disastrous for Israel. It is exactly what the militant group is good at and waiting for,” a CNN piece argued.

With inputs from agencies