 "Has Xi Jinping delayed China’s plans to invade Taiwan?")
Has Xi Jinping delayed China’s plans to invade Taiwan?
A new report has cast fresh doubts on the Chinese president’s plan to invade Taiwan.
Xi has previously said reunification with Taiwan ‘is inevitable’ and vowed to have it at all costs.
Taiwan split from the mainland in 1949 during a civil war when the defeated nationalist government fled to the island.
China claims Taiwan as its own territory, to be annexed by force if necessary.
But what does the report say? And what do experts think?
Let’s take a closer look
US worried about Taiwan
US officials have for years been worried about China invading Taiwan .
US officials claim Xi has ordered his military to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027 – and that Washington is wasting no time in preparing for the possibility.
In November, the head of the US Indo Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo, announced that his team had successfully defended Taiwan in a series of classified wargames that included secret unmanned systems.
The Biden administration also approved a $2 billion arms package to the island itself last week including air defence missiles.
“I believe Taiwan can be defended from air, land and sea, including undersea,” Paparo said. “I have got a number of plans which have been tested in classified environments that have proven success in doing so … There has been no change in U.S. policy on Taiwan.”
Aquilino, the previous commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, in April told Nikkei Asia that Beijing is looking to ready itself to be able to invade Taiwan by 2027
Aquilino pointed to Xi’s remarks asking “his military to be prepared if tasked to execute in 2027.”
Xi has repeatedly voiced his desire to do so.
Xi, speaking on the eve of Communist China’s 75th birthday in October at a state banquet, yet again vowed “complete reunification of the motherland.”
“It’s an irreversible trend, a cause of righteousness and the common aspiration of the people. No one can stop the march of history,” Xi was quoted as saying by Xinhua.
“Taiwan is China’s sacred territory. Blood is thicker than water, and people on both sides of the strait are connected by blood,” Xi said
He added that there must be “spiritual harmony of compatriots on both sides” and that China must “resolutely oppose ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist activities.”
Xi in his New Year’s address had said China’s “reunification” with Taiwan is inevitable.
“The reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability,” Xi said, though the official English translation of his remarks published by the Xinhua news agency used a more simple phrase: “China will surely be reunified”.
“Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” he added. The official English translation wrote “all Chinese” rather than “compatriots”.
Last year, Xi said only that people on either side of the strait are “members of one and the same family” and that he hoped people on both sides will work together to “jointly foster lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation”.
‘Xi does not yet have confidence’
However, a piece in The Economist quoted US officials as saying that Xi’s recent actions lead them to believe that China will not invade Taiwan anytime soon.
They pointed to Xi’s most recent purge of top military leaders in China as proof that he “does not yet have confidence in its ability to take Taiwan quickly and at acceptable cost.”
Xi has waged a sweeping campaign against deep-seated official corruption since coming to power over a decade ago. Proponents say the policy promotes clean governance, while critics say it helps Xi purge political rivals.
The crackdown has come as China has increased military pressure on Taiwan and repeatedly pushed up against its neighbours over disputed territory in the South China Sea.
Admiral Miao Hua in November became the latest top official to fall prey to Xi’s sweep of the military and top officials.
Miao, thought to be an ally of Xi, is a member of the Central Military Commission (CMC) – China’s top military body.
Beijing has removed Miao from office pending a probe into “serious violations of discipline” – a common euphemism for corruption.
Miao isn’t alone.
His suspension came after a British newspaper the Financial Times reported that Defence Minister Dong Jun – thought to be a protégé of Miao – is under investigation for corruption.
China has dismissed the report as ‘pure fabrications.’
“Those rumour mongers harbour evil motives. China expresses strong dissatisfaction over such smears,” the defence ministry said as per CNN.
Since 2023, nearly two dozen military officials including Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu – both former defence ministers – have been purged in a sweeping crackdown.
Wei and Li have been expelled from the ruling Communist Party and are under corruption investigations, according to state media.
Al Jazeera quoted a Communist Party statement at the time as saying they “betrayed the trust of the party and the Central Military Commission, seriously polluted the political environment of the military, and caused great damage to … the image of its senior leaders”.
As per CNN, Li was removed just months into his term as defence minister without any reason being given.
Analysts linked the purge to a wider investigation into the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Rocket Force, which oversees China’s nuclear and conventional missiles and would likely be Beijing’s first line of attack in the event of a major conflict.
Both former defence ministers had links to the force – Wei previously headed the unit and Li Shangfu led a department that developed weapons including missiles.
The unit’s chief, Li Yuchao, and chief of staff, Sun Jinming, were expelled from the party and investigated for corruption in July.
Three senior officials were also removed from their posts at state-owned missile defence organisations in December 2023.
According to Al Jazeera, at least nine People’s Liberation Army (PLA) generals and several defence industry executives have been purged from the national legislative body.
But Miao and Dong’s removal, if confirmed, could suggest the graft purge is widening.
“It’s certainly a blow … because one would imagine they will be super careful to have someone very clean in this role,” Dylan Loh, an assistant professor at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, told the AFP news agency.
“Graft probes are very commonly targeted at the military because of the long historical ties between the business world and the PLA,” he said.
Miao had no clear ties to the rocket force, climbing the ranks in the army and then being promoted to admiral in the navy in 2015.
Similarly, the defence minister – appointed in December – forged his career in the navy and eventually became its commander.
But officials in the US aren’t convinced of these denials.
Andrew Erickson of the US Naval War College told The Economist that corruption “is not a bug, it’s an enduring feature of a system in which the Communist Party is inherently above the law.”
What do experts say?
Some say that Taiwan is safe – for now.
“The period of greatest danger has probably been pushed out for several years as Xi Jinping addresses the loyalty in his military and the corruption problems,” says Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund, a think-tank in Washington.
But others say this is no given.
David Finkelstein, who studies the Chinese military at the Center for Naval Analyses, told Defense News that China “will not renounce the use of force as a possibility” around Taiwan.
“So the military option hangs over the Taiwan Strait like Damocles’ sword,” he added.
“President Xi has instructed the PLA [People’s Liberation Army], the Chinese military leadership to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan. But that doesn’t mean that he’s decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well,” CIA director Bill Burns said during a TV interview in February 2023.
But will Xi give the go ahead? Or delay the invasion?
Only time will tell.
With inputs from agencies
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