 "Why China has surrounded Taiwan with fighter jets and warships")
Twenty-three million people in Taiwan were on “heightened alert” on Monday morning (October 14) after China’s armed forces held a new round of military drills, including fighter jets and warships in the Taiwan Strait, as well as north, south and east of the self-governed island.
The military activity has drawn condemnation from Taiwan as well as the United States, with Taiwan’s Ministry of Defence condemning China’s “irrational and provocative actions”, adding it had “dispatched appropriate forces to respond accordingly to protect freedom and democracy and defend the sovereignty” of Taiwan.
On the other hand, the US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller was quoted as saying, “We call on the PRC (People’s Republic of China) to act with restraint and to avoid any further actions that may undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the broader region, which is essential to regional peace and prosperity and a matter of international concern.”
What do we know of the war games? What’s behind the timing of these drills? What does this mean for China-Taiwan ties?
China launches military drills
Early Monday morning (October 14), China deployed fighter jets and warships around Taiwan, with the Chinese military’s Eastern Theatre Command saying the exercises were aimed at testing People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) joint operation capabilities.
The exercise focused on sea- and air-combat readiness patrols, and the ability to blockade key ports and other areas, said Naval Senior Captain Li Xi, spokesman for the PLA Eastern Theatre Command.
The military drills, dubbed Joint Sword-2024B, are being held in areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan Island with no end date being provided.
According to AFP journalists near the Hsinchu air force base, in the north of Taiwan, six fighter jets took off from China towards Taiwan. Chinese state broadcaster, CCTV, also released a video of PLA soldiers being mobilised. It also reported PLA fighter jets and bombers departing from multiple airports in the southern mainland, crossing the Taiwan Strait to approach the island for joint training.
As of 8 am (local time), some 25 PLA aircraft and a total of 11 ships, including seven from the navy, were found operating around Taiwan.
In addition, China also deployed its Coast Guard to conduct “inspections” around Taiwan, with a diagram showing four fleets encircling Taiwan and moving in an anticlockwise direction around the island.
The military drills, soon became a trending topic in Taiwan and China; while some in China praised the actions, it prompted anger in Taiwan.
Timing of the new military drills
In a statement on the new military drills, China said that it “serves as a stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces. It is a legitimate and necessary operation for safeguarding state sovereignty and national unity”.
These drills come after Taiwan President William Lai Ching-te ’s speech last Thursday on Double Tenth. Ching-te then said the two sides “are not subordinate to each other” and Beijing had no authority to represent the island.
He was quoted as saying, “I will also uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty.”
Following his speech, China issued a strong condemnation, saying Lai’s “provocations” would only result in “disaster for the people of Taiwan”. Chen Binhua, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said: “(Lai’s) provocations in seeking ‘independence’ are the root cause of trouble for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and will bring disaster to the people of Taiwan.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning also said that Lai’s speech “exposed his intention to escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait for political self-interest”.
China-Taiwan escalating tensions
Monday’s war games by China is the fourth such incident in the past two years, an indicator of rising tensions between the two. Beijing had held similar drills after William Lai Ching-te was sworn in as president in May. At the time, Beijing denounced him as a “dangerous separatist.”
In July 2022, then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi travelled to Taipei — a first by a sitting House Speaker since 1996. Furious at the move, China held two days of exercises and even flew ballistic missiles over the island.
All of this stems from the fact that China views Taiwan as a part of it and vows to eventually “unify” Taiwan with the mainland — even by force, if necessary.
The China-Taiwan ties have only worsened since the election of former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016.
Many China watchers, in fact, note that Monday’s war games were not unexpected. As Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific programme, told Al Jazeera, “It was widely anticipated that the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] would conduct military exercises following Lai’s National Day speech. The drills have the effect of demonstrating to the domestic audience that the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] has the resolve to defend Chinese territory. They are also intended to warn Taipei and Washington not to cross Beijing’s red lines.”
Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, also held a similar view. In a Washington Post report, he said, “It didn’t matter how restrained the speech was. “Beijing has used Lai’s speech as an excuse because they are eager to make it appear that they are not the aggressors or seeking to change the status quo unilaterally.”
Invasion not likely
While China’s actions do raise the spectre of an invasion, experts note that an invasion is unlikely. It’s more about intimidation, they note. Lev Nachman, a professor of political science at the National Taiwan University in Taipei, is of the belief that the drills were about posturing.
“While military threats are no small matter, we all knew the PRC [People’s Republic of China] would respond to Lai’s Double Ten Day speech with military threats of some sort,” Nachman wrote on X. “There is no need to panic or overreact. We all saw this coming. It will pass quickly.”
Kuang-shun Yang, the co-founder of the Taipei-based think tank US-Taiwan Watch, said the drills were more of China testing the waters. “We can see that the world has a lot of regional flashpoints that are ongoing and maybe Beijing sees this as … an opportunity to test their will and see if the world’s support for Taiwan is strong enough,” he told Al Jazeera.
Even the people of Taiwan believe that China won’t invade in the coming five years. A poll conducted in September by the Institute for National Defence and Security Research showed that 61 per cent of people think it was “unlikely or very unlikely” that China would attack Taiwan in the coming five years.
With inputs from agencies
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