 "Relatives of hostages, held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, protest outside of Israel's Ministry of Defence in Tel Aviv, Israel, after the militant group announced it would delay hostage releases in the Gaza Strip after accusing Israel of violating a fragile ceasefire. AP")
There have been five hostage swaps since January 19 when the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Hamas was announced. The next hostage swap was scheduled for Saturday (February 15); but on Monday (February 10), the Palestinian-based militant group, Hamas, put the entire deal at risk by announcing that it was deferring the next swap scheduled to take place in Gaza on Saturday “until further notice”.
The move by Hamas has angered United States President Donald Trump, who said that the hostage release deal should be cancelled if all hostages are not released by 12 pm on Saturday. “Let all hell break loose,” he told reporters from the Oval Office, reiterating the threat he made several times before entering office.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz called the Hamas announcement a “complete violation of the ceasefire agreement”.
The actions imperil the six-week truce agreed to last month and the prospects for agreement on a lasting end to the war. But what led Hamas to pause the hostage swap? What will be the repercussions of such a move?
Hamas pauses hostage swap
On Monday (February 10), Hamas made an announcement declaring that it was delaying the release of more Israeli captives planned for Saturday “until further notice”.
In a message, Abu Obeida, the spokesperson of Hamas’s armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, said in a statement that the captives will “remain in place until the occupying entity complies with past obligations and compensates retroactively”.
He added: “We affirm our commitment to the terms of the agreement as long as the occupation commits to them.”
In a statement later, Hamas said there was still an opportunity for the release to go forward as planned. It said the move “serves as a warning” to Israel and was meant to pressure it into “fully honouring” the terms of the ceasefire deal.
“By issuing this statement five full days ahead of the scheduled prisoner handover, Hamas aims to grant mediators sufficient time to pressure the occupation to fulfill its obligations,” the statement read. “This also leaves the door open for the exchange to proceed as planned, provided the occupation complies.”
The announcement by Hamas prompted concern from the families of the hostages , who, in turn, asked mediating countries to help save the deal.
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement, “Recent evidence from those released, as well as the shocking conditions of the hostages released last Saturday, leaves no room for doubt. Time is of the essence, and all hostages must be urgently rescued from this horrific situation.”
Why Hamas is deferring hostage swap
But what exactly led to Hamas announcing a deferment in the swap? According to Hamas’ Obeida, Israel had not fulfilled many of its obligations as part of the Gaza truce.
The Palestinian group said that it had “closely monitored the enemy’s violations and failure to abide by the terms of the agreement over the past three weeks.”
“These include delaying the return of displaced people to northern Gaza, targeting them with shelling and gunfire across various areas of the Strip, and failing to allow the entry of humanitarian aid in all its forms as agreed upon,” he said, asserting Hamas had “fulfilled all its obligations.”
Hamas also accused Israel of not allowing tents, prefabricated houses, fuel, or rubble-removing mechanisms into the Gaza Strip. It alleged Israel was also delaying the entry of essential medicines and hospital supplies.
While Hamas made no mention of US President Donald Trump’s Gaza takeover , the timing can’t be ignored. In fact, the group’s statement on the hostage release came only hours after Trump told Fox News that Palestinians would not be allowed to return to Gaza under his plan, which he unveiled at the White House during Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit last week. In the same interview, the US president warned that he could cut aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refused his demand to permanently take in most Palestinians from Gaza.
However, Trump’s US takeover of Gaza was rejected by Hamas, saying they revealed “his real estate view of homelands.”
What Israel, the US have to say
Shortly after Hamas made the declaration, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said he had instructed the country’s military to “prepare at the highest level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza.”
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also said it was “raising its level of readiness in southern Israel and postponing leave for combat soldiers” and would reinforce the area to enhance its “readiness for various scenarios.”
The Israeli army has cancelled all leave for soldiers in the Gaza division, the Kan news outlet reported, an indicator that Israeli authorities are preparing for the resumption of war.
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a Times of Israel report, has also called for a security Cabinet meeting on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump, an ally of Israel, condemned the move. He called for all hostages to be released from Gaza, saying that otherwise “ all hell ” would break out and he would call for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire to be cancelled.
“As far as I’m concerned, if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday 12 o’clock — I think it’s an appropriate time — I would say cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out,” Trump said.
Trump was quoted by news agency AFP as saying that “all” the remaining hostages should be freed, “not in dribs and drabs, not two and one and three and four and two.” “We want them all back. I’m speaking for myself. Israel can override it, but for myself, Saturday at 12 o’clock — and if they’re not here, all hell is going to break out.”
When asked what he meant by “all hell”, Trump refused to elaborate, saying that “Hamas will find out what I mean”. Asked if he was ruling out the potential involvement of US forces, Trump replied: “We’ll see what happens.”
Implications of the move
Hamas’ move to pause the hostage swap could derail the already fragile ceasefire . As per the initially drawn-out plan, the first stage of the agreement expires on March 1. The second phase would see the release of all captives and a permanent ceasefire. But, this has not been finalised. The third part of the agreement is supposed an usher in a multiyear plan to reconstruct the territory.
Two Egyptian security sources told news agency Reuters that mediators feared a breakdown of the agreement.
Qatar had earlier warned that Trump and Netanyahu’s earlier remarks jeopardised the deal. Qatari diplomats sent angry messages to Israeli counterparts, reminding them that as hosts, key mediators and guarantors of the deal’s implementation, they too have a stake in its survival, an Israeli source said to The Guardian.
Adam Weinstein, the deputy director of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that Trump’s statement in response to Hamas’ decision to delay the hostage swap is “music to Netanyahu’s ears”. He expressed doubt on whether the Israeli prime minister would allow the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza to advance into the second phase, particularly now that Trump was seemingly offering support for Israel to break the deal.
Meanwhile, protests have broken out on the streets of Israel, with Israelis accusing Netanyahu of sabotaging the deal. Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is being held in Gaza, accused Netanyahu of sabotaging the captives’ release deal to prolong his rule. “The prime minister is doing everything to sacrifice my son Matan and all the hostages on the altar of his rule,” she told the gathered crowd.
Danny Elgarat, the brother of 69-year-old hostage Itzhak Elgarat, also told CNN, “The Israeli government just torpedoed the deal. The prime minister just torpedoed the deal, and the hostages are not expected to return on Shabbat. We cannot accept this.”
With inputs from agencies