 "Israel-Hamas seal ceasefire deal. But when will the war really end?")
Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire deal.
On Sunday, the two sides will begin by implementing a ceasefire. Then, hostages will be exchanged.
Both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have tried to take credit for the ceasefire.
Biden said from the White House that “my diplomacy never ceased in their efforts to get this done.”
“It is the result not only of the extreme pressure that Hamas has been under and the changed regional equation after a ceasefire in Lebanon and weakening of Iran — but also of dogged and painstaking American diplomacy,” Biden said.
Trump, meanwhile, wrote on social media, “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies.”
“I am thrilled American and Israeli hostages will be returning home to be reunited with their families and loved ones.”
But when will the war end? What do experts say?
Let’s take a closer look:
When will the war end?
First, let’s briefly examine the negotiations – which comes after months of on-off negotiations brokered by Egyptian and Qatari mediators, with the backing of the United States, and came just ahead of the January 20 inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump .
Things had intensified over the past four days.
As his inauguration approached, Trump had repeatedly called for a deal to be done swiftly, warning that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages were not released.
His West Asia envoy Steve Witkoff worked with President Joe Biden’s team to push the deal over the line.
The US, Qatari and Egyptian negotiators, along with Israel’s team worked until the wee hours of Wednesday morning, just a floor above where the Hamas negotiators were holed up.
Later Wednesday, Hamas made several last-second demands, but negotiators “held very firm,” and the group eventually agreed to the terms of the deal.
As per BBC, the war will continue until the ceasefire goes into effect on Sunday.
A senior Palestinian official told the outlet that Hamas would release three female soldiers on day one of the ceasefire.
Mediators are trying to get the ceasefire to begin on Thursday evening.
Umm Muhammad, an elderly Palestinian woman, told the outlet, “The pain has disappeared a bit, though it’s still there. Hopefully it will be overcome by joy. Let our prisoners get freed and the injured get treated. People are exhausted.”
But the Israelis haven’t stopped their airstrikes.
According to Gaza health officials, the bombardment from Israel continued on throughout the night and early on Thursday – leaving at least 46 Palestinians dead.
Israel’s acceptance of the deal will not be official until it is approved by the country’s security cabinet and government, with votes slated for Thursday, an Israeli official said.
The accord was expected to win approval despite opposition from some hardliners in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government.
What do experts say?
Not to celebrate too soon.
A piece in CFR.org noted that the ceasefire and hostage deal does not necessarily mean the war has ended permanently. It stated that even if the war in Gaza ended, other actors like Iran could find a way to keep the conflict going by other means.
It also noted that the way in which the ceasefire agreement in structured, in three phases, leaves the deal open to being attacked from both sides. “This extended time frame provides opportunities for the agreement’s Israeli and Palestinian opponents to undermine it at critical moments,” the piece argued.
It also drew attention to the fact that this is what happened in the 1990s with the Oslo Accords.
“During the Oslo process, whenever there was perceived progress toward peace, opponents of compromise sowed discord through politics and violence, damaging the legitimacy of the talks to the point that they collapsed,” the piece stated.
It singled out Israeli settlers and Palestinian extremists as possibly being the main culprits in such a situation.
The piece noted the possibility that either side could eventually just pull out of the deal.
An article in The Conversation noted that this sort of deal is typically seen as a strangle contract. It said that Israel has been able to impose this agreement on Hamas because of its relative position of strength.
It noted that Hamas has agreed to a number of ceasefires over the past year only for Israel to change the terms.
The piece said that on the 16th day after the ceasefire begins, the two sides will then begin talking about the next phase.
Here, more hostages and prisoners are supposed to be released.
“However, there are currently no written assurances the ceasefire will continue beyond the first phase if there is no agreement reached for the second phase,” the piece noted.
The article stated that though ceasefires are not legally binding, they are essentially a type of contract between warring parties.
“The war between Hamas and Israel is of course not over. This ceasefire simply marks the start of a new phase. It’s a welcome relief and the least-worst option humans have so far devised to stop the violence of war for a period of time,” the piece concluded.
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a resident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs, said the biggest risk is that conflict now remains frozen in which Gaza remains utterly destroyed.
“The incoming US administration’s regional priorities, coupled with the possibility of a rejuvenated push for a peace process, may be the only hope for Gaza’s recovery, reconstruction, renaissance, and evolution,” Alkhatib contended.
Alex Plitsas is a nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, the head of the Atlantic Council’s Counterterrorism Project, and a former chief of sensitive activities for special operations and combating terrorism in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, added that the ceasefire is actually the easy part.
“The difficult part is the long-term solution to the conflict and release of the remaining hostages. There is still no clear picture of the long-term governance and security in Gaza that would be required to facilitate reconstruction at the end of the conflict,” Plitsas argued.
Experts also say that a ceasefire does nothing to address the underlying conflict that spawned the war.
The occupied West Bank has seen a surge of violence and a major expansion of Israeli settlements in recent years. In east Jerusalem, a tense arrangement governing a holy site sacred to Jews and Muslims — for which Hamas named the October 7 attack — has steadily eroded.
The latest war in Gaza was by far the worst, and it may not be the last.
With inputs from agencies
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