 "From elections to war, here's what 2024 will look like")
The year 2024 is poised to be one for the history books. India, the US and the UK are set to go the polls in general elections that could define the rest of the decade. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is set to continue its quest to explore outer space. The Israel-Hamas war, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to fight until victory, is likely to reach its violent conclusion. The grinding stalemate of the Ukraine-Russia conflict may be set to enter a violent new phase. The battle between workers and management will continue. Let’s take a look at what we can expect from 2024 Elections, elections, elections Above all, 2024 seems to be one of general elections. The Indian general election which pits the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) against the Opposition INDIA bloc is arguably the big daddy of them all. On the one hand you have Prime Minister Narendra Modi – arguably the tallest leader on the national scene since his ascent in 2014 – seeking his third consecutive term in office. And on the other, you have a conglomeration of outfits including the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party, the Trinamool Congress – each trying to push forward their own party leaders and yet somehow come together to counter the BJP. The recent state Assemblies in which the BJP prevailed in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh could well be a harbinger of things to come . However, the Indian public in its wisdom could also throw up a surprise. Meanwhile, in the United States, the most consequential election in history tagline – which is inevitably thrown up every four years – could for once prove apt.
A mouth-watering rematch of the 2020 election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is on the cards.
This time with the former president as the challenger and the current president as the incumbent. While t he polls have been almost consistently favouring Trump , Biden’s team seems to be as calm as still waters on a lake. Their refrain? Ignore what people say and focus on how they vote – and have been since Trump took the White House in 2016. History shows every election that has been a referendum on Trump has seen the Democrats overperform and Republicans underperform. Will Biden – the man who had been running for the presidency for three decades before he finally prevailed – pull off one final win? Don’t bet against him. In the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak’s political future could be at stake. Sunak, who succeeded Liz Truss as Prime Minister of Britain, is facing trouble with the rank and file of the Conservative Party. The reason? Illegal immigration – or to be more specific, the Sunak government’s unsuccessful attempts at stymieing it despite much tough talk. While Sunak prevailed in a parliamentary vote to revive his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, the British prime minister isn’t out of the woods yet. The Conservative Party, which has been power for nearly a decade and a half, is trailing the Labour Party by double digits in polling. This, even as Sunak is required by law to call the polls before 25 January, 2025 – and is more likely to do so in 2024. Meanwhile, the party itself is fractured as the moderate Conservatives have vowed to withhold support from the draft law if it means Britain breaching its human rights obligations, while right-wing politicians complain the bill doesn’t go nearly far enough. Keir Starmer, the Opposition Labour leader, has promised his party would revoke the policy if he gets into power. Britain has already paid $300 million to Rwanda even though no one has yet been sent there. Even if the programme gets off the ground, Rwanda would have the capacity to settle only hundreds of migrants from Britain at a time. Expect Labour to storm back to victory. India continues to explore space The ISRO had a fantastic 2023. From launching the SSLV-D2 in February to pulling off the Chandrayaan-3 moon mission in July, the space agency had a truly stellar year. Now, with the ISRO having set a goal of having a space station by 203 5, the year 2024 is poised to be an extremely eventful one. The agency has lined up six missions of PSLV, three GSLV launches and one commercial mission of Launch Vehicle Mark-3 in 2024. The space agency also has plans to undertake two unmanned missions under the Gaganyaan programme to validate the human-rated launch vehicle and the orbital module in actual flight. Additionally, multiple sub-orbital missions using a test vehicle are also planned to validate the Gaganyaan Crew Escape System under various abort conditions. The space agency has also lined up two autonomous runway landing experiments of winged body Reusable Launch Vehicle and put in orbit the GSAT 20 communication satellite through a procured launch under a commercial contract by NewSpace India Limited (NSIL). The six PSLV missions will launch a space science satellite, an Earth observation satellite, two technology demonstration missions and two commercial missions by NSIL. The three GSLV missions are to launch a meteorology satellite, a Navigation satellite and a joint NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite, while the LVM3 launch is a commercial mission by the NSIL.
Even better, ISRO and NASA are teaming up to launch a joint space mission to map the Earth every 12 days.
The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) is set to be launched in the first quarter of 2024. The mission, which will take place over three years, aims to survey all of Earth’s land and ice-covered surfaces every 12 days. This will start after a 90-day satellite commissioning period. NISAR will map the entire globe in 12 days and provide spatially and temporally consistent data for understanding changes in the Earth’s ecosystems, ice mass, vegetation biomass, sea level rise, ground water and natural hazards, including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes and landslides. New chapter in Ukraine-Russia war All eyes were on Russia and Ukraine in 2023. This was supposed to be the make-or-break year when it comes to the war for both nations.
Ukraine was supposed to be the plucky underdog that drove big, bad Russia out of its land.
Instead, Kyiv found its counter-offensive stymied and very little has changed on the front lines since June. Instead, both armies settled in for a war of attrition on the front lines. BBC quoted the UK Ministry of Defence as saying, “A major Russian breakthrough is unlikely and overall, the front is characterised by stasis.” “War is an uncertain endeavour,” retired Army Lieutenant General Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of the US European Command, told CNBC. “Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you’re seeing things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Very little has been achieved by Russia, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians,” he said. “We’re in this situation now where if there’s not a clear winner, there’s going to be a stalemate, and there’s going to be, perhaps, a future frozen conflict. What can tilt the balance, in my view, is if the Ukrainians are not resupplied and they’re not re-funded and they don’t get the equipment and people that they need. Then this war could tilt to the Russians,” Twitty noted.
Instead, all eyes now turn to the United States.
The White House is warning that funds for Ukraine are fast running out, while the extremist Republicans in Congress remain opposed to sending any more money to Kyiv. And waiting in the wings is Donald Trump – a man many pollsters tip to win the presidential race in November – and someone who has been rather fulsome in his praise of Vladimir Putin. “I think it’s important to understand the extent to which Ukraine is reliant on the US right now, because it’s quite significantly more reliant on the US than it is on the EU,” Sam Cranny-Evans, defence analyst at the Royal United Services Institute defence think-tank, told CNBC. “If the US election goes in a way that is not in Ukraine’s favour, coupled with the fact that the EU is not really stepping up to the plate — it’s ammunition production is so far off what it should have been by now to give Ukraine a hope of surviving and a hope of victory — it’s not a very cheery prediction for 2024.” Putin will surely be watching events closely – with a smile. Israel-Hamas war wraps up Israel’s Chief of Staff recently warned that the battle for Gaza will go on for ‘many months.’ “There are no magic solutions, there are no shortcuts in dismantling a terrorist organisation, only determined and persistent fighting,” Herzi Halevi said. “We will reach Hamas’ leadership too, whether it takes a week or if it takes months.” Halevi made his remarks after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue the battle against Hamas ‘to the finish.’ However, it is almost a certainty that 2024 will be the year that the Israel-Hamas war will reach its denouement.
So, how does it end?
Impact Shorts
More ShortsWell, Israel has already shown its hand when Netanyahu said his country plans to take up the ‘overall security responsibility’ for the strip once Hamas is defeated. Experts have said Israel’s goal of completely dismantling Hamas would only work through occupying the strip – essentially a redux of what America attempted in Afghanistan post 9/11. And what of the Palestinian people? There again the world has had a peek into Netanyahu’s plans – a leaked document calls for the displacement of the population of Gaza to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Gazans would initially be housed in tent cities before more permanent structures are conducted and a humanitarian corridor opened. And with the US in no mood to call upon a belligerent Israel to back off, this could well become reality. Workers of the world unite! The year 2023 saw the constant battle between workers and management continue. While workers stepped up to the plate and voiced their opinions on social media, managers also struck back.
Expect more of the same in 2024.
“When you mistreat your employees (assets), they will revolt and call you out. And when they call you out socially, there is a rally backing this voice”, Ranaq Sen, Head of People, WorkIndia told Moneycontrol. Sen warned that employees would continue to give voice to their frustrations “unless companies fundamentally change how managers are behaving with their teams”. The debate on work from home – which millions of people were forced into during the COVID-19 pandemic and who found their lives much improved – will likely continue. “The economics of living in top cities just doesn’t make sense”, Karthik Sridharan, co-founder and CEO of tech talent company Flexiple told the website. “In our interactions with developers, we encounter resistance from many who cite a similar reason (increased cost of living) to refrain from moving into larger cities. I personally know people who chose quality of life over a fatter paycheck. Given a tough funding climate, availability of remote positions is low. Even then, the number of people who took up remote work last year has increased which shows where worker preferences lie”. Satya Sinha, CEO at Mancer Consulting, added, “Not only the rent but employees also save on the hassle of travelling to and from the workplace. A chunk of money is saved on food, electricity and other utilities, including the overall cost of relocation which more than compensates for the pay cut.” With inputs from agencies
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