 "Will Joe Biden go the Jimmy Carter way and become a one-term US president?")
Is Joe Biden heading for defeat in 2024 ala Jimmy Carter in 1980? Things seem to be going wrong for the US president as the next general election draws closer and closer. Former president Donald Trump, his likely 2024 opponent, has taken a sizeable lead over Biden in some swing state polls. This, even as Biden’s popularity has dipped in the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas war, and his administration seems to have pulled back from touting Bidenomics as the public feels the pinch of rising inflation. So will Biden go the Jimmy Carter way of being a one-term Commander-in-Chief? Let’s take a closer look: Biden’s popularity dips A poll earlier in December showed the president’s popularity was near its lowest level of his presidency. The three-day Reuters-Ipsos opinion poll, which closed on Sunday, showed 40 per cent of respondents approved of Biden’s performance as president. That was a marginal increase from 39 per cent in November.
The poll had a margin of error of about three percentage points.
The poll showed that Americans see the economy, crime and immigration as the biggest problems facing the country – all issues on which Trump and other Republicans have criticised Biden. Nineteen percent of poll respondents rated the economy as the top issue, while 11 per cent pointed to immigration and 10 per cent singled out crime. Biden;s public approval rating has held below 50 per cent since August 2021, and this month’s rating remained close to the lowest levels of his presidency – 36 per cent – in mid-2022. The Reuters/Ipsos poll gathered responses online from 1,017 adults, using a nationally representative sample. Another recent Reuters-Ipsos poll showed Trump leading Biden – if only just barely – in a head-to-head matchup. The former president and Republican front-runner leads the incumbent 38 per cent to 36 per cent across the nation. Meanwhile, 26 per cent of respondents saying they weren’t sure or might vote for someone else. The poll, conducted online from 5 to 11 December surveyed 4,411 US adults nationwide. It had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of about two percentage points.
However, what really ought to make Biden supporters sweat is a slew of swing state polls that give Trump the edge.
While Biden got millions upon millions more votes than Trump in the previous election, what put him over was running up the tap in the so-called swing states or purple states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Remember, US presidents are chosen not by popular vote totals but by the Electoral College – meaning that voters in just a few states will essentially pick the next Commander-in-Chief. Swing state polls favour Trump While this recent poll had some good news for Biden – giving him a four-point lead on of Trump in seven swing states – most swing state polls have consistently favoured the former president. As per Forbes, Trump beat or tied with Biden in 11 of the last 13 polls that RealClearPolitics tracked. A recent CNN poll, for example, gave Trump the edge over Biden in the two critical battleground states of Michigan and Georgia. The SSRS poll found that vast majorities in both states held negative assessments of Biden’s job performance, policy positions and sharpness.
“The country has soured on Joe Biden; there’s just not another way to put it,” CNN political director David Chalian said.
Biden’s support in the poll is significantly weaker now among several groups that he previously won by wide margins and were critical to his election in 2020,” noted CNN’s polling director Jennifer Agiesta. In Georgia — a state Biden carried by a very narrow margin in 2020 — registered voters say they prefer Trump (49 per cent) over Biden (44 per cent) for the presidency in a straight, two-way battle. In Michigan — which Biden won by a wider margin — Trump has 50 per cent support to Biden’s 40 per cent, while 10 per cent said they wouldn’t support either candidate even after being asked which way they lean. [caption id=“attachment_13441962” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Former US president Donald Trump is beating Joe Biden in a number of polls. Reuters File[/caption] In both Michigan and Georgia, the share of voters who say they wouldn’t support either candidate is at least as large as the margin between Biden and Trump. Trump’s margin over Biden in the hypothetical matchup is significantly boosted by support from voters who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020, with these voters breaking in Trump’s favour by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan. Among the 2020 voters, they say choosing Biden over Trump in that election, but as of now, they tilt in Trump’s favour for 2024 in both states, with Biden holding on to fewer of his 2020 backers than Trump. The surveys have also found that overall, just 35 per cent in Michigan and 39 per cent in Georgia approve of Biden’s job performance, and majorities in both states say his policies have worsened economic conditions in the country (54 per cent in Georgia, 56 per cent in Michigan). A previous CNN/SSRS poll of registered voters also showed Trump in the lead. As per Forbes, a November New York Times/Sienna College poll showed Biden trailing Trump in five of six swing states and only prevailing in Wisconsin. That poll – with a margin of error between 4.4 and 4.8 per cent – gave the former president a four-point lead in the seven states. Biden was behind Trump by four points in his home state of Pennsylvania (his home state,) five points in Arizona, five points in Michigan, six points in Georgia and 10 in Nevada. Biden only had the edge on Trump in Wisconsin. A November Morning Consult poll similarly found Biden falling behind Trump in six of seven swing states. Biden was tied with Trump in Michigan. The Kennedy factor And even this so-called ‘good’ poll for Biden came with bad news. The poll laid bare the depths of the deep apathy among many voters at a potential Biden-Trump rematch. Around six in 10 respondents said they were not satisfied with America’s two-party system and want a third choice.
Enter RFK Jr.
The anti-vaccine activist Robert F Kennedy Jr and scion of the famed Kennedy family, who launched an Independent bid could end up playing a spoiler in 2024. [caption id=“attachment_13225422” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Robert F Kennedy Jr’s candidacy potentially could swing the election towards Biden.[/caption] Trump’s lead widened to a five-point advantage nationally when respondents were given an option to vote for Kennedy. Some 16 per cent of respondents picked Kennedy when given the option, while Trump had 36 per cent support, compared to 31 per cent for Biden. Trump also led Biden by five points in the seven swing states when Kennedy was as option. Bidenomics and inflation The CNN poll’s grim numbers partially reflect softness among Biden’s base: About one-quarter of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters in each state disapprove of Biden, and a little more than 4 in 10 say his policies have not helped the country’s economy. Biden’s campaign is working to sell voters on the success of his economic agenda, with a recently launched ad in Michigan focused on small businesses and the middle class. An October Morning Consult poll found that swing state voters haven’t been buying the Biden administration’s message. The poll quoted three out of four swing-state voters as saying the country was on the wrong track when it comes to the economy.
The voters also said they were personally faring better under Trump.
Impact Shorts
View AllAnother 45 per cent of respondents said Trump was the better candidate for handling the economy, compared to 33 per cent who picked Biden. But there is a wild card – Trump’s increasing legal jeopardy and possible convictions. Some 31 per cent of Republican respondents in the recent poll said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony crime by a jury. He has denied any criminal wrongdoing. Biden, however, had a similar advantage on the issue of abortion, with 44 per cent of respondents saying he was the better candidate for abortion access, compared to 29 per cent who picked Trump. Some of Trump’s strength also appeared tied to concerns by some voters about crime and immigration. Asked which candidate was better on the issues, 42 per cent picked Trump on crime compared to 32 per cent who selected Biden. Fifty-four percent of respondents agreed with a statement that “immigration is making life harder for native-born Americans,” with a similar share saying Trump was the better candidate for the issue. Israel-Hamas war taking toll The poll also finds little consensus among voters in both states on America’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war — an issue that has caused a rift within the Democratic Party — with more progressive and younger Democrats pressing Biden to call for a ceasefire. Overall, about 4 in 10 in each state say the US is doing the right amount to help Israel, with about a third saying the US is doing too much and roughly a quarter too little. About half of voters younger than 35 in both states, though, say the US is doing too much (49 per cent in Michigan, 46 per cent in Georgia), more than 20 points higher than the share of those age 50 or older (23 per cent in both states).
However, here too there is some good news for Biden.
A recent poll from the The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that Democratic views on how President Joe Biden is handling the decades-old conflict between Israelis and Palestinians have rebounded slightly. The shift occurred during a time in which Biden and top US officials expressed increased concern about civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip, emphasised the need for a future independent Palestinian state and helped secure the release of hostages held by Hamas during a temporary truce. Fifty-nine percent of Democrats approve of Biden’s approach to the conflict, a tick up from 50 per cent in November. His latest standing is roughly equivalent to Democrats’ 57 per cent approval rating for him on the issue in an August poll, conducted well before the latest war began on 7 October when Hamas attacked Israel. What do experts say? Does the Carter comparison bear out? CNN quoted Gallup as saying that Carter was at this point of the political cycle even more unpopular than Biden. But some say the difference will be made by the man challenging Biden for the highest office in the US. A piece in Unherd noted that while Carter matched up with Ronald Reagan, Biden will have to take on Trump. “Some polls show Trump slightly ahead of Biden, but polls are not votes, and it is hard to imagine significant numbers of voters who went for Biden in 2020 switching to Trump,” the piece argued. [caption id=“attachment_13501232” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Jimmy Carter, like Joe Biden, faced trouble in West Asia, rising inflation and the economy during his reelection bid. AP[/caption] Others say it’s too early to write Biden’s political obituary. A piece in Gulf News rightly noted that the elections were nearly a year away – an eternity in politics. The piece pointed out that poll numbers fluctuate and also that Obama had a similar experience against Romney while running for re-election – only to defeat his challenger handily. “In the end, Americans have to decide whether they want to bring back a leader who was deeply divisive, controversial, and even dangerous. They may have survived Trump once, but it’s hard to predict the havoc he might wreak in a second term,” the piece concluded.
Time, it seems, is Biden’s best ally.
“The best thing in this poll for Joe Biden is the date on it, November 7th, 2023, and not 2024,” CNN political commentator Kate Bedingfield said in the aftermath of the SSRS poll. “No question that he has his work laid out for him, no question the campaign knows about it,” she added. The piece in CNN also noted some similarities between the challenges that Biden and Carter faced – on West Asia, the economy and inflation – and some key differences. While Biden is facing RFK Jr as a spoiler, Carter faced a full-on challenger from the Left in the form of Ted Kennedy, the CNN piece noted. The piece also noted that Trump is no Reagan incarnate. “Rather than choosing a smiling former actor promising morning in America, Republicans seem set on Trump, who is using his 2024 campaign as an effort to beat back his legal problems and framing the contest in terms of a revenge tour. Trump stands a decent chance of being a convicted felon by the time Election Day rolls around a year from now,” the piece noted. With inputs from agencies
 "SpaceX scrubs 10th test flight of Starship megarocket after ground systems trouble")
 "Ukraine drone-attacks Kursk nuclear plant, power output hit at one reactor: Russia")
 "Zelenskyy calls for talks with Putin as peace efforts stall and tensions escalate")
 "Trump threatens to pause Baltimore bridge reconstruction funding after falsely claiming he 'gave the money'")
 "SpaceX scrubs 10th test flight of Starship megarocket after ground systems trouble")
 "Ukraine drone-attacks Kursk nuclear plant, power output hit at one reactor: Russia")
 "Zelenskyy calls for talks with Putin as peace efforts stall and tensions escalate")
 "Trump threatens to pause Baltimore bridge reconstruction funding after falsely claiming he 'gave the money'")
