France’s leftists beat far-right but no one has majority: What happens next?

France’s election has thrown up a big surprise. Marine Le Pen’s far-right won the first round – winning 33 per cent of the popular vote. In the second round, the unexpected happened. The left emerged victorious with Emmanuel Macron’s centrists making an unpredicted comeback. With this, the National Rally was pushed to the third spot.

However, none of the three blocs have a majority by themselves of at least 289 seats out of 577. France then faces a hung parliament.

So what happens next? Is a coalition on the cards? What does the future hold for French President Macron? We explain.

What happened in the first round?

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The first round of snap two-round general election saw the far-right win. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) won 33 per cent of the popular vote. The leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance got 28 per cent and Macron’s centrist Together bloc secured 21 per cent.

To win one of the 577 seats in the national assembly in the first round, a candidate must get more than 50 per cent of ballots cast, representing at least 25 per cent of registered voters, according to a report in The Guardian.

What are the results after the second round?

After the second round held on Sunday (July 7), the New Popular Front (NFP) emerged as the surprise winner of the elections. The left-green alliance dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical left bagged 182 seats in the 577-seat assembly.

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Macron’s centrist Together coalition will have 163 MPs and the National Rally and its allies, who were looking at a majority after the first round, have 143.

While three major political blocs emerged from the elections none of them is close to the majority of at least 289 seats.

Where does a hung parliament leave France?

The National Assembly is the most important of France’s two houses of parliament. It has the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives, reports The Associated Press (AP).

While not uncommon in other European countries, modern France has never experienced a parliament with no dominant party.

Such a situation requires lawmakers to build consensus across parties to agree on government positions and legislation. France’s fractious politics and deep divisions over taxes, immigration and Mideast policy make that especially challenging.

This means Macron’s centrist allies won’t be able to implement their pro-business policies, including a promise to overhaul unemployment benefits. It could also make passing a budget more difficult.

Can NFP form a government?

The NFP is an alliance comprising the Unbowed France (LFI), the Socialist Party (PS), the Greens and the Communists. But they do not have an absolute majority.

Mélenchon ruled out a broad coalition of parties of different stripes. He said Macron had a duty to call on the leftist alliance to rule. On Sunday, he demanded that the French president appoint a prime minister from the NFP and implement its programme in its entirety. However, others, including those in the coalition, said that the leftist bloc would be forced to negotiate as it had no majority.

According to France’s constitution, the president can pick the prime minister. Since the parliament can force the resignation of the government, the head of the state picks someone acceptable to the assembly, reports The Guardian.

The PM would be someone from the largest bloc in parliament. But appointing a leader from the radical left comes with challenges of its own, risking no-confidence votes by the centre-right, far-right and possibly the president’s camp, the report says.

However, there is no firm timeline for when Macron must name a prime minister and no firm rule that he has to name a prime minister from the largest party in parliament.

Can Macron forge a deal with the left?

France is not accustomed to post-election coalition building, which is common in northern European parliamentary democracies like Germany and the Netherlands. Its Fifth Republic was designed in 1958 by war hero Charles de Gaulle to give large, stable parliamentary majorities to presidents and that has created a confrontational political culture with no tradition of consensus and compromises, according to a report in Reuters.

However, a hung parliament leaves President Macron with little choice but to reach out to the left. He may seek a deal with the moderate left to create a joint government. The deal could take the form of a loose, informal alliance that would likely be fragile.

Macron has said he would not work with the hard-left France Unbowed party, but he could stretch out a hand to the Socialists and the Greens. They may refuse to take it, however.

Macron’s government last week suspended a decree that would have diminished worker’s rights to unemployment benefits, which has been interpreted as a gesture toward the left.

On Sunday, Raphaël Glucksmann, who led the Socialist in the European elections, said, “We are in a divided assembly; we have to behave like adults… Parliament must be the heart of power in France.”

Macron will likely be hoping to peel off Socialists and Greens from the leftist alliance, isolating France Unbowed, to form a centre-left coalition with his bloc. However, there is no sign of an imminent break-up of the New Popular Front at this stage.

According to the constitution, the president decides who to ask to form a government. But whoever Macron picks faces a confidence vote in the National Assembly, which will convene for 15 days on 18 July. This means he needs to name someone acceptable to a majority of lawmakers.

What if no agreement is reached?

This would put France in unchartered territory. The French constitution says Macron cannot call new parliamentary elections for another 12 months.

If Macron can’t make a political deal, he could name a government of experts unaffiliated with political parties. Such a government would likely deal mostly with the day-to-day affairs of keeping France running. Complicating matters: Any of those options would require parliamentary approval.

What about an interim government?

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he would tender his resignation to Macron on Monday morning, but that he was available to act in a caretaker capacity. He said he is ready to remain in the post during the upcoming Paris Olympics and for as long as needed. An interim government would handle current affairs pending further political negotiations.
Macron’s office says he will “wait for the new National Assembly to organise itself” before making any decisions on the new government.

What about Macron’s future?

The president’s term runs until 2027, and he has said he will not step down before its end. With no majority and no possibility to implement his plans, Macron comes out weakened from the elections.

In line with France’s constitution, he still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defence and is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and holds the nuclear codes.

There’s a possibility the new prime minister would be unable or unwilling to seriously challenge Macron’s defence and foreign policy powers and would focus instead on domestic politics. The prime minister is accountable to parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.

As of now, France has plunged into political uncertainty. It remains to be seen what the future holds.

With inputs from agencies