 "France’s far-right celebrates lead in first round of polls: What comes next?")
As France prepares for the decisive second round of its snap general election on July 7, the far-right National Rally (RN) is poised for an unprecedented breakthrough, as it outperformed expectations and is closer to power than ever before.
In a stunning turn of events, the RN secured 33 per cent of the vote in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections. This marks a significant achievement for Marine Le Pen’s party, which has long been a pariah in French politics due to its anti-immigrant and eurosceptic stance.
The New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing alliance, garnered 28 per cent, while French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Together bloc trailed with 21 per cent.
Marine Le Pen celebrated the victory, saying, “This is a historic moment for our party. The French people have shown their desire for change and for policies that put France first.”
This election is a critical setback for Macron, who had called the snap election following his party’s defeat in the European Parliament elections. Now, with the RN on the brink of forming a government, France faces a pivotal moment that could redefine its political landscape and its role in the European Union.
What is the two-round electoral system?
France’s two-round electoral system is designed to ensure broad support for elected representatives. To win a seat in the National Assembly in the first round, a candidate must secure more than 50 per cent of the votes cast and represent at least 25 per cent of registered voters.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThis is a rare occurrence, and the 2024 election saw only 80 candidates achieve this due to an exceptionally high turnout of 67 per cent.
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If no candidate meets these criteria, the top two candidates, along with any others who received at least 12.5 per cent of the registered vote, advance to the second round. The candidate with the most votes in the second round wins the seat.
Historically, this system favours larger parties and can lead to disproportionate representation.
What are ’triangular’ races that this election is seeing?
This election is notable for its high turnout, the highest since the 1980s, and a reduced number of candidates (4,011 compared to 6,290 in 2022). This has resulted in a record number of three-way contests, or “triangular” races, potentially affecting half of the assembly’s seats.
In these triangular races, the presence of three or more candidates can split the vote, often benefitting the party with the largest share from the first round, which in this case is the RN.
What kind of alliance-building are we looking at?
In previous elections, mainstream parties have often formed alliances to block the RN, a strategy known as the “Republican front.” This involves parties withdrawing their candidates in favor of the best-placed rival candidate to defeat the RN. However, this strategy has been weakening, with voters increasingly reluctant to support parties with differing policies.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical left France Unbowed (LFI) and part of the NFP alliance, pledged that in constituencies where the RN is in first place and an NFP candidate is in third, the NFP candidate would withdraw. “We must do everything to prevent the far-right from winning,” Mélenchon stated.
Macron’s coalition has been less definitive. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal emphasised, “Not one single vote must go to the National Rally,” but some candidates from Macron’s bloc may not withdraw if faced with an LFI candidate.
An Ipsos poll found that 87 per cent of NFP voters were willing to vote against the RN, compared to 62 per cent of Together voters.
Another poll by Odoxa indicated that fewer voters were willing to block the RN (41 per cent) compared to blocking the NFP (47 per cent) or Together (44 per cent). This fluid and complex voter behavior and party alliances will be crucial in the second round.
What is ‘cohabitation’?
“Cohabitation” refers to a situation in the French political system where the president and the prime minister come from different political parties, often resulting in a divided government. This occurs when the president’s party does not control the majority in the National Assembly, forcing the president to appoint a prime minister from the majority party.
France has experienced cohabitation three times in its modern history:
From 1986 to 1988 under President François Mitterrand (Socialist) and Prime Minister Jacques Chirac (Conservative).
From 1993 to 1995 under President Mitterrand and Prime Minister Édouard Balladur (Conservative).
From 1997 to 2002 under President Jacques Chirac (Conservative) and Prime Minister Lionel Jospin (Socialist).
During cohabitation, the prime minister leads the government and implements policies, while the president retains significant influence over foreign policy, European affairs, and defence. Jean Garrigues, a political historian, told AP, “In case of cohabitation, policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister, but the president can still influence foreign policy and defence.”
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If the RN or another political force wins a majority, Macron will be forced into cohabitation, appointing a prime minister from the majority party. Jordan Bardella, a potential RN prime minister, stated, “I intend to be a cohabitation prime minister who is respectful of the Constitution and of the President of the Republic’s role but uncompromising about the policies we will implement.”
Bardella indicated that an RN-led government would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine and delivering long-range missiles capable of striking Russia, diverging significantly from Macron’s policies.
What can we expect in the second round?
The second round on July 7 will be crucial in determining the future political landscape of France. If the RN secures a majority, France will experience its first far-right government since World War II. This would significantly impact France’s domestic policies and its role in the EU, given the RN’s resistance to further EU integration and its stringent stance on immigration.
If no party secures a majority, Macron could face cohabitation or attempt to build a broad coalition, an unlikely scenario given the political divergences.
Another option could be appointing a “government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties, which would need to be accepted by a majority in the National Assembly.
Attal expressed hope for building “a majority of projects and ideas” with other “Republican forces” from the centre-left and centre-right.
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Experts suggest that the Constitution of the 5th Republic is flexible enough to manage these complex circumstances, although the population’s acceptance of the situation remains uncertain.
The far-right RN is poised for a significant victory, but strategic withdrawals and voter alliances in the second round will be critical. The second round on July 7 will be a decisive moment for the country and its place in Europe.
With inputs from agencies
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