Fact-check: No, India's GDP has not crossed $4 trillion. But are we close?

India is the world’s fifth-largest economy, behind the United States of America, China, Germany and Japan. And, on Sunday (20 November), news went viral that the country had achieved the historic milestone when its GDP crossed the $4 trillion-mark for the first time. Several BJP ministers and industrialists hailed the achievement, praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi for this unbelievable feat. With this, it seemed that the country was one step closer to realising PM Modi’s dream of reaching a $5 trillion economy by 2025. However, one would have thought that such news would have made the front pages of newspapers and evoked several reactions from the government and the public alike. But there was silence from the government. Even the National Statistical Office remained mum. Does this mean the news was a hoax? Has India not joined the elite club? We try to uncover the facts. The $4 trillion ‘news’ breaks On Sunday, an unverified screengrab from the live tracking GDP feed for all countries based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data went viral on social media. This image showed India’s GDP surpassing the $4-trillion mark for the first time. This news broke after India officially announced that it had recorded a GDP growth of 7.8 per cent during the April-June period of 2023-24, the highest in the past four quarters. The 7.8 per cent GDP growth in the June quarter is higher than the 6.3 per cent recorded by China during the same period. **Also read: Six great things about Indian economy right now everyone should know** Shortly after the tweet went viral, several BJP leaders reacted to it, praising the Centre and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Jal Shakti Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat took to social media platform X, writing, “India’s moment of global glory as our GDP crosses $4 Trillion. The rise of #NewIndia under PM @narendramodi ji’s leadership is truly unparalleled.” Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis also reacted to the post, writing, “This is what dynamic, visionary leadership looks like ! That’s what our #NewIndia progressing beautifully looks like! Congratulations to my fellow Indians as our Nation crosses the $ 4 trillion GDP milestone! More power to you, more respect to you Hon PM @narendramodi ji!”

This is what dynamic, visionary leadership looks like !
That’s what our #NewIndia progressing beautifully looks like !
Congratulations to my fellow Indians as our Nation crosses the $ 4 trillion GDP milestone!
More power to you, more respect to you Hon PM @narendramodi ji !… pic.twitter.com/wMgv3xTJXa

— Devendra Fadnavis (@Dev_Fadnavis) November 19, 2023

Other BJP minister, including G Kishan Reddy, who is the Union Minister for Culture, Tourism and Development of Northeast Region as well as Telangana BJP president, also hailed the achievement. He wrote on X: “Congratulations As The GDP Touches $4 Trillion For The First Time and Marches Ahead. On the course towards $5 Trillion Economy – Modi Ki Guarantee.” News agency PTI also reported that billionaire Gautam Adani also hailed the achievement, saying, “Congratulations, India. Another two years to go before India becomes the 3rd largest nation in terms of global GDP by overtaking Japan at $4.4 trillion and Germany at $4.3 trillion. The Tricolour surge continues! Jai Hind.” Other BJP party members and supporters also applauded and praised the feat and soon this became one of the most trending topics on social media. Economists and analysts also welcomed the reports, saying that India, having achieved a monumental GDP milestone of over $4 trillion, stands tall as a beacon of economic prowess and global influence. The government’s silence and more… But even hours after the ‘news’ broke of India’s GDP crossing the $4 trillion mark, the government remained mum, causing people to question the claim. The Finance Ministry and the National Statistical Office didn’t comment on the claim. Highly-placed sources, according to a PTI report, then stated that the news was incorrect and the country was still shy of the landmark. Other economists also opined that this was a hoax, and that there was no official confirmation to it. Congress’ Jairam Ramesh also refuted the news, saying it was “bogus and fake”. He also trained his guns at the Modi government, saying it was an attempt by them to “generate more euphoria”.

Between 2:45pm and 6:45pm yesterday, when the nation was glued to watching the cricket match, various drumbeaters of the Modi Govt including senior Union ministers from Rajasthan and Telangana, the Deputy CM of Maharashtra, as well as the PM's most favoured businessman, tweeted…

— Jairam Ramesh (@Jairam_Ramesh) November 20, 2023

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Deepak Shenoy – the CEO at Capitalmind, a SEBI registered portfolio manager – also refuted the viral news, writing on X, “India’s GDP isn’t yet $4 trillion, unfortunately. We are about $3.38 trillion as of June, and possibly $3.45 trillion now, at best.”

India's GDP isn't yet $4 trillion, unfortunately. We are about $3.38 trillion as of June, and possibly $3.45 trillion now, at best. pic.twitter.com/Eh8zwwUECq

— Deepak Shenoy (@deepakshenoy) November 19, 2023

This is in line with the IMF data released on 16 October. The data had then revealed that India’s GDP stood at $3,730 billion ($3.7 trillion). [caption id=“attachment_13407402” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] India is the fifth-largest economy in the world, behind the US, China, Germany and Japan. Image used for representational purposes/PTI[/caption] The hype around it and how close are we to it? If India had indeed achieved crossed the $4 trillion mark on Sunday, it would have been one step closer to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dream of the country becoming a $5-trillion economy. Earlier at the BRICS Summit, Modi had said: “Soon, India will become a $5 trillion economy. There is no doubt that India will be the growth engine of the world in the years to come.” This was a reiteration of his 2019 statement where he had envisioned that India would become a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25. But how far is India from its goal? Last August, former RBI governor D Subbarao said that India may become a $five trillion economy by 2028-29 only if the GDP grows at nine per cent per annum consistently for the next five years. He had also listed the eight challenges that the nation needed to overcome to achieve this dream. According to him, the challenges are increasing investment, improving productivity and education and health outcomes, creating jobs, raising agriculture productivity, maintaining macroeconomic stability, managing global mega trends and improving governance. With inputs from agencies