 "Smoke and fire rise from the site of an Israeli strike on the southern Lebanese border village of Mahmoudiyeh. - The Israeli military announced new strikes in Lebanon in which it said it had hit some 30 Hezbollah rocket launchers along with other \"infrastructure\". AFP")
They say a small spark can start a great fire. In the West Asian region, it seems exploding pagers and walkie-talkies can ignite a war.
Hopes of a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza have dimmed after a series of pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon blew up, killing over 30 people and injuring nearly 3,000 others, which prompted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to respond by saying that the attacks had crossed “all red lines” and the group would retaliate and remain undeterred in its fight against Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza.
Experts and analysts believe that the exploding devices and the subsequent strikes by the Jewish nation are a prelude to an all-out Israeli offensive against Hezbollah.
We try to navigate all the latest in the ongoing conflict and try to decipher what it means for the West Asia region.
Wave of exploding devices
The new escalation in the enmity between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based militant group, began on Tuesday when pagers utilised by hundreds of Hezbollah members detonated in various locations in Lebanon and Syria. The attack resulted in the deaths of at least 12 people, including two young children, and left thousands more injured.
Social media was quickly flooded with videos showing a bloody aftermath, with one video showing a man picking out fruit in a supermarket when an explosion detonated – leaving him groaning in pain on the ground.
The Lebanese government and Hezbollah quickly attributed the deadly explosions to Israel, saying the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and Mossad had carried out the attack.
Questions swirled as to how Israel had managed to pull out this audacious attack , with some reports saying that Israel had been able to infiltrate the supply chain of the pagers and inserted explosive material into the devices, with a remote trigger.
Almost exactly 24 hours later, Lebanon was rocked by a second attack on Wednesday, when walkie-talkies detonated in the suburbs of Beirut and in the south of the country. This incident killed at least 20 people and injured another 450.
Many pundits and analysts wrote pages upon pages about what the exploding devices attack meant for Hezbollah, with some deeming it an embarrassment for the Lebanese group. The Washington Post had written in the aftermath of the explosions, “The attacks dealt Hezbollah a severe blow, represented an embarrassing breach of its supply chains and illustrated Israel’s ability to strike deep within the militant group.”
Hezbollah vows ‘reckoning’
On the backfoot, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah made a public address on Thursday in which he said that the exploding pagers and walkie-talkies had “crossed all red lines”.
In what came as a shock, he also acknowledged that Hezbollah had suffered an “unprecedented blow”, but he vowed it would continue fighting and inflict a “just punishment”.
“Without a doubt, we have suffered a major blow,” said Nasrallah in his speech. “(It is) unprecedented in the history of the resistance in Lebanon at least, unprecedented in the history of Lebanon, and it may be unprecedented in the history of the conflict with the Israeli enemy across the entire region.”
He further vowed that a “reckoning” would come, but provided little details on it. “The reckoning will come. Its nature, scope, when and where … that’s something we will definitely keep to ourselves,” he added. “Within the tightest circle, even within ourselves, because we are in the most precise, sensitive and deeply significant part of the battle.”
The Hezbollah leader’s address, a first since the start of Lebanon’s last all-out war with Israel in 2006, came while residents of Lebanon reel from the attacks and fear that their everyday devices such as phones could be turned into killers.
Israel looks to the north
But even as Hezbollah’s Nasrallah spoke of a reckoning, Israel it seems was unperturbed. Even amidst his address, came reports of Israeli warplanes breaking the sound barrier over Beirut.
Israel later announced that it was continuing its airstrikes, with the military saying that it had hit “approximately 100 launchers and additional terrorist infrastructure sites, consisting of approximately 1,000 barrels”.
On the other hand, Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported that the Jewish nation had struck the south of Lebanon at least 52 times.
These strikes also come while Israel has announced a “new phase” in its conflict with Hezbollah. Israel Defence Minister Yoav Gallant spoke of it in a video posted to X, noting that it will bring both risks and benefits. He warned that Hezbollah will pay an “increasing price” as time goes on.
“Hezbollah feels that it is being persecuted, and the sequence of military actions will continue,” Gallant said. “Our goal is to ensure the safe return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes.”
Moreover, Israel’s 98th Division, with approximately 10,000 to 20,000 troops, has been deployed northern Israel. For the unaware, this division played a significant role in spearheading the army’s operations in Khan Younis in the south.
An offensive in the making
Those who have been watching this conflict play out since October 7 last year when Hamas launched its audacious attack, say that Israel’s actions are a sign of bigger things to come. Israeli Brigadier General Amir Avivi (retired), who leads Israel Defense and Security Forum, explained it best. “You don’t do something like that, hit thousands of people, and think war is not coming. Why didn’t we do it for 11 months? Because we were not willing to go to war yet. What’s happening now? Israel is ready for war,” he was quoted as telling the Associated Press.
However, what Israel or Hezbollah’s next moves would look like remains unclear. Some believe that the Benjamin Netanyahu-led country would Lebanon with ground forces, and slowly root out Hezbollah from its hiding places. However, as the Times of Israel reports, the IDF hasn’t finished the job against the much smaller Hamas enemy.
A longer, more deadly war in Lebanon with a tired reserve force and home front will only add to growing frustrations over the management of the conflict since October 7. It will also bring months of rocket attacks on a weary society with tens of thousands of internal refugees, a stagnant economy, and family members at war for almost a year, said the newspaper.
Many also note that Hezbollah won’t let the exploding pagers and walkie-talkies go unanswered. Nicholas Blanford, an expert on Hezbollah with the Atlantic Council said that the Lebanese group would retaliate. “I think there’s going to be a lot of grassroots pressure from the support base, from the Hezbollah fighters,” even those not affected directly, to retaliate,” said Blanford to _Al Jazeer_a.
But such an escalation only spells catastrophe for Israel, Lebanon and the region. When Israel went to war with Hezbollah in 1996 and 2006, the bloodshed was unprecedented — more than 1,200 Lebanese and over 200 Israeli soldiers were killed.
Put that in perspective to today’s situation. Hezbollah has a more advanced arsenal comprising rockets and missiles, which makes it a more formidable foe. A wider war would also draw in each side’s allies, making this a larger battle.
We don’t know what the future holds, as it is a wait-and-watch game, with many hoping that cooler minds will prevail.
With inputs from agencies