After pagers, walkie-talkies: What could be Israel's motive behind these attacks?

On Tuesday (September 17), hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah simultaneously exploded in different parts of Lebanon, killing 12 people, including two children, and injuring about 2,800. While no group claimed responsibility for the chilling and audacious attack, Hezbollah placed the blame at Israel’s feet and vowed revenge.

While people across the world kept discussing the pager explosions — asking questions about it the attack was carried out to the repercussions of the act — on Wednesday (September 18), Lebanon was rocked once again when thousands of two-way radios used by the group blew up in Beirut, killing at least 20 people and injuring more than 450 others.

The attacks, which many believe imperils the region, has led to many unanswered questions. But none as interesting as — why. Why have the pager and walkie-talkie explosions occurred now? Is there a significance to the timing of the attacks?

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We take a closer look and try to solve this mystery.

First pagers, then walkie-talkies

Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based militant group, was stunned on Tuesday after a simultaneous detonation of pagers took place, killing 12 people and wounding nearly 3,000 more. The group took no time to point fingers at Israel for the attack, saying it would “get justice” for it.

As Lebanon was reeling from the pager explosions, the country was struck by a second deadly wave of explosions. This time, it was walkie-talkies used by its members, which detonated in Beirut, killing 20 people and injuring more than 450 others.

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Visuals surfacing on social media showed people running for cover when an explosion went off during a funeral for Hezbollah members in south Beirut in the afternoon.

In the case of the pagers, most suspect that an infiltration in the supply chain was the way the attack was carried out. Reports said that small amounts of explosive had been inserted into the low-tech devices, which detonated when it was activated via a radio signal, as simple as the paging system itself.

When it comes to the walkie-talkies, few details have emerged, but a security source told Reuters that Hezbollah had bought them five months ago, about the same time that the pagers were bought.

‘Use it or lose it’

Following the attacks, the biggest question that people have been asking is why now. There are a number of theories to the timing of the attack and the first one that emerged little after the pager explosions is that Israel went ahead with the plan over worries that the terror group might have uncovered their plot.

Reports by multiple outlets stated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his top officials reportedly greenlit the coordinated attack sooner rather than later when intelligence briefings in recent days suggested Hezbollah might have detected the explosives allegedly placed inside their pagers.

Moreover, the walkie-talkie explosions was also sped up over concerns that the terrorists would ditch the devices following the previous day’s surprise attack.
A US official speaking to Axios on the attack — Washington has denied having any involvement in the explosions — said that “it was a use it or lose it moment” for Israel.

What this means is that Israel wanted to go ahead with its plan before it was uncovered by Hezbollah, which would result in their previous planning going to waste.

Domestic morale boost

Another possible reason for the double wave of attacks against Hezbollah would be to serve as a morale booster.

A day before the pagers started exploding in Lebanon, the discussion on the ongoing war — which began last October — was over whether Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu would remove his Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant. However, the focus has now shifted back to the actual war and not the politics surrounding it.

Moreover, some experts note that it may serve as a morale booster for Netanyahu, who has been struggling with lower approval ratings; until July, the Israeli PM only had 32 per cent of approval from his countrymen. Some believe that the detonations may bolster his image and reinstate his image of being a strongman.

The pager and walkie-talkie explosions also serve as a much-needed image-burnishing for the country’s security establishment. Mossad and other intelligence agencies in Israel lost fact after Hamas terrorists carried out an audacious attack on October 7 last year, killing hundreds and taking several people hostage.

The pager explosions have caught the imagination of people, with some likening it to a spy novel or movie. Others note that such an operation is highly complicated and requires meticulous planning and with Mossad having been able to pull it off, it seems the agency has found favour.

French defence and strategy consultant Pierre Servent had another theory. He noted that as the war’s first anniversary — October 7 — draws nearer, the attacks have been able to deliver the message that Israel is here. He told AFP that the explosions allow Israel’s security officials to send “a message: ‘We messed up, but we’re not dead’.”

A further escalation

Some others believe that the attacks serve as an explicit message that Israel has the technology and the willingness to go against the group.

It also could be a message that Israel is escalating the war. After all, the Israel war Cabinet added a new goal to its war on Wednesday. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told troops yesterday, “We are at the start of a new phase in the war. The centre of gravity is moving northward.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu also said on Wednesday that he vowed return tens of thousands of residents evacuated from northern border areas to their homes. “I have said it before, we will return to the citizens of the north to their homes in security and that’s exactly what we are going to do,” he said in a brief video statement, giving no further details.

But others argued that the detonations were an act of deterrence. This is because country’s security service just revealed that it had foiled an attempt by Hezbollah to assassinate a former senior Israeli security official using a remotely detonated explosive device.

And retired Israeli Navy commander Eyal Pinko agreed with this theory. Speaking at a briefing of Jerusalem Press Club he was quoted by CNN as saying, “I think this kind of operation is setting some kind of alert or deterrence. The intention is to say, ‘We have penetrated you, you have already been penetrated, we know where you are, what you do, and look what we can do in one single shot’.”

We don’t know what happens next — the future seems uncertain, Israel’s motives remain a mystery. All we can do is sit back and wait until the next move is made in what is appearing to be a game of very interesting chess.

With inputs from agencies