Explained: Will EU's deal to send 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine resolve its ammunition shortage?

The European Union has agreed to send Ukraine a million artillery shells. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell took to Twitter to hail what he described as “a historic decision”. “We are taking a key step towards delivering on our promises to provide Ukraine with more artillery ammunition,” Borell said. He added that 18 countries had signed up for a European Defence Agency, or EDA, project to place joint orders for ammunition with the defence industry. The deal comes as Kyiv grapples with an ammunition shortage as the war with Moscow has turned into a battle of attrition. Let’s take a closer look: Kyiv complains about rationing firepower Ukraine is expected to receive 1 million 155-millimeter artillery shells within 12 months. But Kyiv has told the EU it requires 350,000 shells per month to help its troops hold back Moscow’s onslaught and allow for fresh counter-offensives later in the year. Ukraine became the world’s No. 3 importer of arms in 2022 after Russia’s invasion triggered a big flow of military aid to Kyiv from the United States and Europe, according to Swedish think tank SIPRI.

Still, it has complained that its forces are having to ration firepower.

According to The Guardian, Ukraine’s army has restricted its output to around 4,000 to 7,000 rounds per day in recent months. Russian forces, meanwhile, have fired between 20,000 and 50,000 rounds per day in the same period. Ukraine’s ammunition consumption far outstrips the amount its Western backers are manufacturing. [caption id=“attachment_12326442” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A Ukrainian police officer takes cover in front of a burning building that was hit in a Russian airstrike in Avdiivka.[/caption] “The [Ukrainian armed forces] are utilising artillery rounds faster than Ukraine’s partners can produce and supply them. The proposed assistance measure will therefore make an important contribution to allow the UAF to counterbalance the combat power of Russian forces,” an internal document on the plans was quoted as saying by The Guardian. _DW’_s Nick Connolly said Ukraine’s commanders told him they face extremely tough decisions. “I’ve met commanders of howitzers, of artillery pieces, who’ve told me that they don’t know how long they can keep doing their job, if they will be forced to withdraw and move away from positions and wait for more artillery,” Connolly said. “This is a very real problem.” Frank Sauer, a security expert at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich agreed. Sauer in February told DW that he also thought the shortage of ammunition was the “fundamental problem” at the moment. A fact NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg also acknowledged. CNN quoted Stoltenberg said the “current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production,” and that it is putting “our defense industries under strain.” ‘Not set in stone’ However, there’s no guarantee that the EU will send Kyiv 1 million artillery shells in the next year. Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warned that the target to supply one million rounds over the next year was not set in stone. “It is possible that we might not be able to reach it,” he admitted.

Experts say this could be disastrous for Kyiv.

“War is about stocks,” Rob Bauer, NATO’s top military officer, told Bloomberg. “About your ability to continue the fight as long as it takes.” As Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel who’s now an adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington told Bloomberg, “At some point, that becomes a problem.” If it becomes too constrained, you can’t shoot at really good targets.” Nico Lange of Munich Security Conference told DW, “From my point of view, [the ammunition shortage] is more important than any symbolic discussion.” Lange, an ex-chief of staff at the German Defence Ministry, added Russia’s tactic could only find favour if Ukraine ran out of ammunition – something that needed to be avoided at all costs. After 12 months of eating into their stockpiles, there are also questions over how much EU countries can share immediately without leaving themselves vulnerable. The bloc has already committed a wide range of military support worth 12 billion euros to Ukraine, with 3.6 billion euros from a joint fund used to help cover the costs. Officials say that, since the Russian invasion last February, 450 million euros from the fund have gone on supplying 350,000 shells to Ukraine. Key to getting countries to deplete their stocks is convincing them that European industry can step up to produce more. [caption id=“attachment_12204192” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A picture taken on February 24, 2023 shows European Union’s and Ukrainian flags fluttering outside the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, to mark the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. AFP/Representational image[/caption] Germany’s defence industry says it stands ready to ramp up its output, including the kinds of arms and ammunition needed by Ukraine, but that it needs clarity about what governments want before investing in further production capacity. “What’s important for us as an industry is to get predictability,” Hans Christoph Atzpodien, the head of Germany’s arms manufacturing association, told The Associated Press last week. “That means we have to be clearly told which products are needed within which time.” According to Bloomberg, Germany’s Rheinmetall AG is spending $10.7 million on a new production line near Hamburg to produce ammunition for the Gepard antiaircraft guns it has given to Kyiv. Meanwhile, ZVS Holding in Slovakia has vowed to quintuple its annual production of 155mm shells to 100,000 by 2024. Russia, meanwhile, has a production capacity that outstrips Europe’s by far. Bloomberg quoted Estonia’s Ministry of Defence as saying Moscow could produce 1.7 million 152mm artillery shells per year prior to the war. The outlet quoted defence minister Sergei Shoigu as saying the military roughly doubled ammunition purchases in 2022 and that spending on weapons systems will increase another 50 per cent in 2023 “We have no funding restrictions,” Putin told Ministry of Defence staff in December. “The country, the government will provide whatever the army asks for. Anything.” ‘War economy mode’ Brussels said EU firms need to switch to “war economy mode” after scaling back in the years following the end of the Cold War. The industry complains that governments haven’t yet signed the long-term contracts they need to invest in more production lines. The EU is hoping that placing a mammoth joint order for 155-mm shells will incentivise companies to ramp up their output.

But there are concerns about the supplies of key components such as explosives.

“We are used to production that is for the peacetime and this time we are in war in Europe,” Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said. “This will take time of course, there is also some lack of the materials and so forth.” EU internal market commissioner Thierry Breton visited French firm Nexter Monday as part of a tour of 15 ammunition firms in 11 EU countries aimed at urging them to push ahead. He said Brussels was ready to intervene, including with central funds, to help companies up production. “Increasing industrial capacity is essential,” he said. The State Department also announced Monday that the US will send Ukraine $350 million in weapons and equipment, including various types of ammunition, such as rockets, and an undisclosed number of fuel tanker trucks and riverine boats. With inputs from agencies Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .