Why UK PM Liz Truss' troubles are a good sign for Rishi Sunak

Barely over a month into the job, UK prime minister Liz Truss is already in big trouble – a good sign for former British-Indian chancellor and Tory leader Rishi Sunak.

With financial markets in turmoil and members of her own Conservative Party seemingly plotting her ouster, it seems that Truss’ days are numbered , and Sunak, her former rival, the betting favourite to make a comeback.

Let’s take a closer look:

Truss’ humiliating U-turn sparks resignation calls

It’s been a humiliating week for Truss, who had to appoint Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor after sacking her close friend and trusted aide Kwasi Kwarteng for doing nothing more than enforcing her boss’ will and in the process sparking chaos in the markets.

Already, senior figures within the party are calling for Truss to step down.

Veteran Tory MP Crispin Blunt was the first crack in the wall of Conservative MP support.

The Guardian quoted him as saying, “I think the game is up and it’s now a question as to how the succession is managed.”

Blunt told Channel 4: “If there is such a weight of opinion in the parliamentary party that we have to have a change, then it will be effected. Exactly how it is done and exactly under what mechanism … but it will happen.”

Tory MP Jamie Wallis told The Guardian he had submitted a no confidence letter.

“In recent weeks, I have watched as the government has undermined Britain’s economic credibility and fractured our party irreparably. Enough is enough. I have written to the prime minister to ask her to stand down as she no longer holds the confidence of this country,” Wallis said.

Tory MP Andrew Bridgen added to the Daily Telegraph: “We cannot carry on like this. Our country, its people and our party deserve better.”

Former chancellor George Osborne was quoted as saying by Sky News that Truss will most likely be gone “before Christmas”.

Opinion polls spook Tories, Sunak backers step up efforts.

Conservatives have also been spooked by an Opinium for the Trades Union Congress poll projecting a landslide for Labour, with the party winning 411 seats, in case of a general election.

As per Bloomberg, Sunak backers have increased their efforts to attempt to ‘coronate’ him.

Former chief whip Julian Smith has been in touch with several party MPs to gauge the level of support for bypassing another vote from the party’s grassroots supporters.

Mel Stride, a vocal critic of Truss and a Sunak supporter, is hosting a dinner for MPs on Monday evening, following a similar event last week, as per the report.

While Truss is protected in her position by a one-year immunity clause, party rules could be changed by a two-thirds majority.

Sunak, of course, is the one most likely to benefit.

Sunak takes silent approach, remains betting favourite

Already mutinous voices within the governing Conservatives continue to flag how Sunak had warned against much of the financial meltdown that would follow his rival’s unfunded tax-cutting policies.

Sunak had in August criticised Truss’ £30bn plan for unfunded tax cuts, claiming it would lead to “misery for millions”.

“The lights on the economy are flashing red, and the root cause is inflation. I’m worried that Liz Truss’s plans will make the situation worse,” Sunak said.

The former British-Indian chancellor adopted a silent approach as he hosted two pre-scheduled parties at a central London hotel this week to thank his Ready for Rishi leadership campaign team and officials at the UK Treasury.

“His approach is one part ‘I told you so’ but rather more a sense of sadness. He just says: ‘It didn’t have to be like this’,” a friend was quoted by The Sunday Times as saying.

As the Oddschecker bookies’ odds aggregator showed 42-year-old Sunak racing ahead as the favourite to replace 47-year-old Truss, his team is said to be eyeing what would be one of the most remarkable political comebacks in British politics.

According to insiders, the UK-born Indian-origin politician, who lost to Truss in the Tory membership vote after being the clear frontrunner among his parliamentary colleagues, is steering well clear of any accusations of plotting against Truss as he spends time in his constituency of Richmond in Yorkshire.

Among the possibilities being considered by Tory rebels is to avoid another full-blown leadership election by getting members of Parliament to unite behind one particular candidate.

Sunak is not seen as an all-out favourite for that because the fierce loyalists from former prime minister Boris Johnson’s camp, who still blame his resignation as Chancellor for their leader’s exit in the wake of the partygate scandal, are unlikely to rally behind him.

The proposal of a joint unity ticket involving Sunak and Penny Mordaunt, who came third in the shortlisting phase of the leadership contest and now serves as Leader of the House of Commons in the Truss Cabinet, has also been considered.

However, close aides on both sides indicate that neither would be willing to serve as the other’s junior. UK defence secretary Ben Wallace is considered a strong contender as the new unity candidate if Truss is convinced to step down. Meanwhile, the prospect of Johnson attempting his own possible comeback of sorts has not been ruled out.

Who is in charge?

Hunt is set to unveil tax and spending measures later Monday, bringing forward part of his fiscal plan to calm markets after a botched debt-fuelled budget.

“She’s listened, she’s changed, she’s been willing to do that most difficult thing in politics which is to change tack,” said Hunt, as he insisted Liz Truss is still the one in charge amid reports of him now the de facto leader overturning most of her tax-cutting plans.

“Taxes are not going to go down as quickly as people thought and some taxes are going to go up. So it’s going to be very, very difficult and I think we have to be honest with people about that,” he said.

Though Hunt – a former Tory leadership hopeful and a Sunak supporter, has ruled himself out of possibly replacing Truss – has urged his party to unite behind her, saying “the last thing that people really want” is yet another change of leader, actions speak louder than words.

Questions are being raised about if he is already the de facto prime minister.

As Laura Kuenssberg wrote for BBC, Hunt has “made a virtue out of being candid about how bad things are - dangling the implication the prime minister has not levelled with the public about what comes next. Whether it’s intentional or not, the message isn’t that subtle: after the craziness of the last few weeks here comes an experienced grown-up to take control. And it’s given the impression, as one former minister put it: He’s gone out and said he’s in charge.”

Hunt seemingly already being at the helm and Truss seen as taking a backseat is yet, at the very least, terrible optics for the current prime minister.

With inputs from agencies

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