Explained: Why Taiwan president’s visit to US will only worsen tensions

Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen is heading to the United States. Tsai, who left Taiwan on Wednesday afternoon, is scheduled to stop over in New York before visiting Guatemala and Belize – among just the 13 countries that recognise Taipei. Tsai will then head to Los Angeles on 5 April where she is scheduled to meet House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The trip comes just days after Honduras, a former ally of Taipei, officially opened diplomatic relations with Beijing and amid heightened friction between Beijing and Washington over US support for Taiwan and trade and human rights issues. Beijing claims self-governing Taiwan is part of its territory and threatens to bring the island under its control by force if necessary. Let’s take a closer look at why the move will worsen tensions: Chinese threaten retaliation Already the Chinese are already threatening some form of retaliation. The spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, Zhu Fenglian, denounced Tsai’s stopovers and demanded that no US officials meet with her. “We firmly oppose this and will take resolute countermeasures,” Zhu said at a news conference. The US should “refrain from arranging Tsai Ing-wen’s transit visits and even contact with American officials and take concrete actions to fulfill its solemn commitment not to support Taiwan independence,” she said. Speaking later Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said China will “closely follow the development of the situation and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Mao said the United States was “conducting dangerous activities that undermine the political foundation of bilateral ties.”

Beijing sees official American contact with Taiwan as encouragement to make the island’s decades-old de facto independence permanent, a step US leaders say they don’t support. Experts say the situation must be handled carefully. “There is a possibility that the transit, if not carefully handled, could blow up in everybody’s face,”  Bonnie Glaser, who heads the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the US, told the Wall Street Journal. “It could end up with a major display of military force by the Chinese, which will introduce even more friction into the U.S.-China relationship,” she said. Kwei-Bo Huang, an associate professor of diplomacy at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, told Al Jazeera  that there is an unwritten rule that Taiwan’s presidents never make official trips to the US. “In the past, the president couldn’t make a public speech and engage publicly with US political figures in the US,” Huang said. But so-called transit stops have recently become more and more extravagant, Huang added. [caption id=“attachment_12259142” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Kevin McCarthy is scheduled to meet Tsai Ing-wen in Los Angeles. AFP.[/caption] “Now, the president can do that, but the US executive branch still does not allow officials to meet with or participate in the ROC president’s events in the US.” “Beijing’s attempts to poach Taiwan’s diplomatic partners will lead to Taiwan developing closer ties with the United States,” said James Lee, a researcher on US-Taiwan relations at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica. While the visit had been on the cards before Honduras announced its switch, Lee said the timing of the trip does have “symbolism”. Lee said the strength of Taiwan’s unofficial allegiances was as important as any official ties. “The loss of official relations with third countries will be offset by a deepening of Taiwan’s unofficial relations,” he said. US officials downplay trip But US administration officials in a call with reporters ahead of Tsai’s arrival insisted that her transit is in line with what she and her predecessors have done in the past. Tsai has made six transits through the US — stopovers that have included meetings with members of Congress and members of the Taiwanese diaspora – during her presidency. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive visit, said Tsai is also expected to meet with American Institute in Taiwan chair Laura Rosenberger. AIT is the US government-run non-profit that carries out unofficial relations with Taiwan.

One official added that “there is absolutely no reason” for Beijing to use Tsai’s stopover “as an excuse or a pretext to carry out aggressive or coercive activities aimed at Taiwan.” Nancy Pelosi, who visited Taiwan in 2022, was the highest-ranking elected American official to visit the island since then-speaker Newt Gingrich in 1997. US officials are increasingly worried about China attempting to make good on its long-stated goal of bringing Taiwan under its control. The sides split at the end of a civil war in 1949 and Beijing sees U.S. politicians’ visits as conspiring with Tsai’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party to make the separation permanent and stymy China’s rise as a global power. Under its “one China” policy, the US acknowledges Beijing’s view that it has sovereignty over Taiwan, but considers Taiwan’s status as unsettled. Others say the visit show Washington’s faith in Taiwan, which is an important partner in the Indo-Pacific. “Such visits are a reaffirmation of US support for Taiwan at a time when critics of the Tsai administration — and the CCP — strive to sow doubt about the reliability and commitment of the US as a partner to Taiwan,” J Michael Cole, a Taipei-based adviser with the International Republican Institute (IRI), told Al Jazeera. ‘Won’t bow to external pressure’ Tsai told reporters before boarding her plane that “I want to tell the whole world democratic Taiwan will resolutely safeguard the values of freedom and democracy and will continue to be a force for good in the world, continuing a cycle of goodness, strengthening the resilience of democracy in the world.”

“External pressure will not obstruct our resolution to engage with the world,” she said.

Beijing has recently ramped up diplomatic pressure against Taiwan by poaching its dwindling number of diplomatic allies while also sending military fighter jets flying toward the island on a near-daily basis. Tsai’s state visits coincide with a 12-day trip to China by her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, of the pro-unification Nationalist Party, in an appeal to voters whose descendants arrived with Chiang Kai-shek’s defeated forces in 1949. Ma has been visiting sites in the former Nationalist capital of Nanjing and emphasizing historical and cultural links between the sides, while avoiding the politically sensitive topics of China’s determination to eliminate Taiwan’s international presence and refusal to recognize its government. Tsai is barred from seeking a third term, and her party is widely expected to nominate Vice President Lai Ching-te to run for the presidency. With inputs from agencies Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.