Cost-of-living crisis, Ukraine, uniting Tories: Challenges facing UK PM-elect Liz Truss

Liz Truss, who will be Britain’s third woman prime minister after Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May, faces enormous and pressing challenges. Her slimmer than expected victory over Rishi Sunak shows she could be in for a tough time

The UK prime minister’s race is in the books with Liz Truss defeating Rishi Sunak to emerge as Conservative Party leader and the successor to Boris Johnson.

Truss handily defeated the Indian-origin former chancellor, nabbing 81,326 votes compared to Sunak’s 60,399 votes.

The result was formally announced by the returning officer of the leadership contest and chair of the Conservative Party’s powerful 1922 Committee of backbench MPs, Sir Graham Brady, at the Queen Elizabeth II Centre near Downing Street.

He said Truss won 81,326 votes compared to Sunak’s share of 60,399 votes.

Truss, who will be Britain’s third woman prime minister after Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May, faces enormous challenges ranging from a managing cost of living crisis to uniting the Conservative Party and the war in Ukraine.

Let’s take a closer look:

Cost-of-living crisis

Perhaps at the very top of Truss’ exhaustive to-do list would be managing the cost-of-living crisis.

Inflation in the United Kingdom in July driven by rising food and fuel prices hit a new 40-year peak of 10.1 per cent.

That itself beat analysts’ forecast of 9.8 per cent and a jump from the annual rate of 9.4 per cent in June, as per The Office for National Statistics. The new figure is the highest since 1982, when inflation peaked at 11 per cent.

As per Al Jazeera, Truss has vowed to come out swinging, vowing to come up within a week with a plan to tackle rising energy bills and secure future fuel supplies.

Truss, in a TV interview Sunday, did not provide details of her plans and did not offer comment on a report that her energy plan could exceed 100 billion British pounds.

Business minister Kwasi Kwarteng, the man expected to serve as her finance minister, perhaps signalling Truss’ intent wrote on Monday that the government could afford to borrow more to fund support for households and businesses, as per the report.

Uniting Tories

Truss also faces the challenge of uniting the Conservative Party, a task that may be more difficult than she expects.

While she defeated Sunak thoroughly, her margin was not overwhelming – she secured 57 per cent to Sunak’s 42 per cent.

Truss is the only leader that received fewer than 60 per cent votes since the Conservative Party changed its internal election rules to give members a final say ahead of the 2001 leadership contest.

By contrast, Boris Johnson received 66.4 per cent of the vote in 2019, David Cameron 67.6 per cent in 2005 and Iain Duncan Smith 60.7 per cent in 2001.

Truss’ performance, coming in a race she was expected to dominate, and where she has the most appeal, should at least be taken note of.

Truss now has to appeal and corral the Conservative Party MPs, many of whom are less right-wing than the base, as The Guardian notes.

The remnants of the high-octane campaign against Sunak might also come back to haunt Truss.

While Sunak has taken to Twitter to call for party unity, the former chancellor has ruled out serving in Truss’ government.

As per The Guardian, disaffected MPs eager to seize on Truss’ mishaps and mistakes could easily rally around Sunak.

While Truss is also working with a huge commons majority in principle (71), a combination of unsupportive MPS and bigwigs on the backbenchers could leave her with an effective majority of 10, as per the report.

As per BBC, an early test for Truss could be the investigation into whether Johnson misled MPs over the Downing Street gatherings.

“If the committee of MPs recommends a punishment for Mr Johnson, MPs will need to vote on it. The prime minister will have to decide whether to let Tories vote how they want, or whether to instruct them to vote a certain way. Whipping them to vote for a sanction could anger those who support Boris Johnson, but the opposite approach risks accusations of trying to cover up wrongdoing,” political correspondent Ione Wells told the outlet.

Governments with divided parties can struggle to pass policies, Wells noted, adding that Truss mind find, like her predecessor, that staying on message could be more difficult if ministers are playing defence behaviour rather than promoting policies.

War in Ukraine

Truss, who pitched herself as the continuity candidate, has few options on Ukraine and little room to manoeuvre away from Johnson’s embrace of Volodymyr Zelenskky.

As per The Guardian, Truss has one thing in common with other leaders – she is bound to face hurdles as the war continues, especially if the energy crisis continues to worsen.

WION quoted Goldman economists as saying, “In a scenario where gas prices remain elevated at current levels, we would expect the price cap to increase by over 80 per cent in January (vs 19 per cent assumed in our baseline). (This) would imply headline inflation peaking at 22.4 per cent, well above our baseline forecast of 14.8 per cent.”

“Truss will doubtless stay committed to Ukraine. But as its repercussions are felt, it seems likely she will face more voices, within the Conservative party and more widely, seeking an alternative plan,” The Guardian noted.

Brexit and Northern Ireland deadlock

To quote John Kerry, Truss was for the EU before she was against it.

Truss initially was in favour or remaining in the EU in 2016, but changed sides after the leave campaign prevailed.

In a move reminiscent of Johnson, as per BBC, Truss has vowed to remove from the UK books all EU laws and claimed it will ‘turbocharge’ growth. Meanwhile, she is yet to address chronic post-Brexit labour shortages in the UK, particularly of seasonal workers.

She has also proposed overriding the Northern Ireland Protocol the UK signed with the EU.

As per BBC, talks with EU have stalled entirely after the government introduced a bill to give UK ministers powers to override parts of the post-Brexit trading arrangements.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Unionist Party declared it won’t form a power-sharing government at Stormont until the protocol is changed, arguing it damages Northern Ireland’s position within the UK.

The deadline for restoring government at Stormont is 28 October.

Once that deadline passes, the government has few options – call a fresh election, draw up legislation for a new deadline, or begin taking more decisions for Northern Ireland from Westminster.

Truss will also need to be mindful of the fact that most Northern Irish politicians want the protocol to remain and would be eager to blame Downing Street.

Truss’ victory holds little surprise

For pollsters, political analysts and media outlets it came as little surprise as Truss was widely expected to beat 42-year-old Sunak in pre-poll surveys and bookmaker odds on the race.

A combination of the Tory membership base’s lingering loyalty towards outgoing Prime Minister Johnson, whom they see as being betrayed by former close ally Sunak, and Truss’ pledge to cut taxes are among the key factors behind the British Indian MP failing to clinch the race.

While the over 1.5-million-strong Indian diaspora stood firmly behind the UK-born MP for Richmond in Yorkshire, other sections of the Conservative Party including those who trace their roots to other parts of the sub-continent were expected to be more divided.

Truss’ campaign pledge to reverse Sunak’s tax hike plans while he was Chancellor to tackle the cost-of-living crisis facing the country seems to have worked in favour. While Sunak’s approach of wanting to focus on fighting soaring inflation and using targeted measures to offer support to those most in need did connect with audiences at the nearly dozen party hustings, that clearly wasn’t enough to turn the tide in his favour.

Now elected party leader, it won’t be until Tuesday afternoon that Truss can formally lay claim to her new office at 10 Downing Street – after predecessor Boris Johnson hands in his formal resignation to the Queen at Balmoral Castle in Scotland.

It will be followed soon after by Truss’ first audience as PM-elect with the 96-year-old monarch, after which she will be flown back to London to begin announcing her new Cabinet top team.

On Wednesday, she will address her very first Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) in the House of Commons and face off with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.

“After 12 years of the Tories all we have to show for it is low wages, high prices, and a Tory cost-of-living crisis. Only Labour can deliver the fresh start our country needs,” said Starmer, even as he congratulated the new Prime Minister elect.

Other Opposition leaders were similarly critical, with Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey calling for a general election.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, said she “will seek to build a good working relationship” with the new Tory leader and urged Truss to “freeze energy bills for people and businesses, deliver more cash support, and increase funding for public services.”

With inputs from agencies

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