In Brazil, it’s Jair Bolsonaro vs Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: Who is likely to win the election?

Brazil is voting today with far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a fight for his political life against former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. While there are ostensibly 11 candidates in the race to become president, only Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva, the two tallest leaders in Brazil by far, stand any realistic chance. According to pollster Datafolha, eight of ten Brazilians will cast their ballots for either man. While the opinion polls uniformly favour Lula Da Silva, Bolsonaro won’t admit defeat so easily. Both men have their staunch supporters and the electorate made up its mind long ago. Nara Pavão, who teaches political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco, told AP both candidates are well known and that the vote is ‘crystallised’. Meaning the mythical ‘undecided’ voters aren’t really a thing in these polls. At stake is the return of the world’s fourth-largest democracy to a leftist government after four years of far-right politics led by a president criticized for challenging democratic institutions, his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic that killed nearly 7,00,000 people and an economic recovery that has yet to be felt by the poor. Let’s take a look at Bolsonaro, Lula and who is likely to emerge the victor in this clash of Brazil’s titans: Bolsonaro, the self-styled outsider Nicknamed the ‘Trump of the Tropics,’ Bolsonaro rose to power in 2018 by praising the United States-backed military government that ran Brazil for two decades before a return to democracy in 1985. Prior to becoming president, Bolsonaro was known as a fringe conservative congressman, popular among police and soldiers in his Rio de Janeiro base.

A former army captain, the seven-term career congressman styled himself as an outsider.

He appealed to voters fed up with political graft and violent crime and campaigned on an anti-corruption platform while defending a show-no-mercy approach to crimefighting, traditional family values and national pride. He ran an unorthodox campaign, relying on social media and grassroots rallies that won him legions of fans delighted at his sharp words and Twitter putdowns. [caption id=“attachment_11333311” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Jair Bolsonaro and First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro. Wikimedia Commons[/caption] His 2018 slogan — “Brazil above all, God above everyone” — is back this year. Bolsonaro prevailed at the polls by fashioning a new conservative coalition out of agribusiness interests, free-marketeers, evangelical Christians and rank-and-file security forces. But after winning power, Bolsonaro’s big tent soon began to fray, leaving him ill-equipped to handle his biggest test: the COVID-19 outbreak. Like his political idol, former US president Donald Trump, Bolsonaro underestimated the severity of the virus he referred to as a “little cold.” He emphasized unproven cures like hydroxychloroquine over vaccines and showed little empathy for the nearly 700,000 Brazilians killed by the outbreak. Many Brazilians have been unable to forgive him for that record. In particular, female voters who flocked to him in 2018 have ditched him in droves, with some experts citing his widely criticized handling of the outbreak as a key factor. Bolsonaro has also struggled to appeal to young voters raised on stories of economic boom years under Lula, who have little memory of the corruption scandals that hurt him and his leftist successor, Dilma Rousseff. Bolsonaro has a long history of making comments seen as sexist, homophobic and racist, as well as attacking the indigenous. Lula da Silva, the popular ex-president For Lula da Silva, Sunday’s poll is yet another chapter in his improbable life story. The 76-year-old leftist is a former metalworker rose who rose from poverty to the president’s office. Few would think that the man with the gravelly voice and grandfatherly charm was the same hard-nosed individual who dared take on the might of the military dictatorship in the 1970s by leading strikes. Lula led Brazil from 2003 to 2010 during a commodities boom driving robust economic growth, which helped him reduce the country’s deep social inequalities, lift millions from extreme poverty and expand access to education and healthcare.

He left office with an unprecedented 87 per cent approval rating.

But his legacy was tarnished by a deep recession overseen by his hand-picked successor and former chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, who was impeached for breaking budget rules. In 2018, Brazilian politics was upended when Lula da Silva was jailed as part of a massive corruption investigation that targeted his Workers’ Party. Ironically, it was Lula da Silva’s conviction for corruption and money laundering that knocked him out of the 2018 race in which he was a favourite that let Bolsonaro — at the time a fringe, far-right lawmaker — to cruise to victory. [caption id=“attachment_11350081” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Students of a samba school with a cut-out of Lula Da Silva.[/caption] Lula da Silva spent 580 days in jail until his November 2019 release. Then, the Supreme Court annulled da Silva’s convictions amid accusations the judge and prosecutors manipulated the case against him. Now a free man, Lula da Silva, who has vowed to restore political calm in a country polarised by Bolsonaro’s right-wing populism, has the chance to script what might be his final chapter. After losing his first wife to a stroke while he was in jail, Lula remarried last year, to sociologist Rosangela da Silva, known as Janja. There is no sign of anger or desire for revenge after his incarceration. “I have lived a full life. I have no time for hatred or revenge. I only have time to believe that tomorrow will be a better day,” he said in a campaign ad. Who will win? All signs point to Lula da Silva prevailing. As per Bloomberg, a new poll from DataFolha, Brazil’s most influential pollster, showed Lula da Silva on the verge of winning the race outright. A survey published Thursday evening showed Lula da Silva receiving a projected 50 per cent of votes in the first round excluding null and blank ballots. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, was in a distant second place with 36 per cent of the projected vote. The candidate receiving more than 50 per cent of the votes will be declared the winner. Anything less will lead to run-off.

But the bad news for Bolsonaro doesn’t end there.

Even if things go to the run-off, the firm has forecast a heavy defeat for Bolsonaro at the hands of Lula da Silva. In short, Bolsonaro faces the unfortunate outcome of being Brazil’s first-ever president to lose a re-election campaign. 6 Jan repeat in the offing? But Bolsonaro isn’t expected to go quietly. Bolsonaro has been making unfounded allegations against Brazil’s electronic voting system. He has long insisted that the machines, used for a quarter-century, are prone to fraud, though he acknowledged last year that hasn’t been proved. When Bolsonaro launched his campaign this year, he called on supporters to flood the streets for 7 September independence day celebrations. On that date last year, he declared before tens of thousands who rallied at his behest that only God can remove him from power. He also vowed he would no longer heed rulings from a Supreme Court justice, threatening to plunge the country into an institutional crisis. He later backtracked, saying his comment was made in the heat of the moment. [caption id=“attachment_11184641” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Jair Bolsonaro, elected Brazil’s president in 2018, has been dubbed the ‘Trump of the Tropics’. AFP[/caption] Earlier this month, Bolsonaro said in an interview that if he doesn’t win Sunday’s first round, “something abnormal has happened within the electoral court.” His attacks on the voting system have prompted widespread concern among his opponents that he may reject election results. Indeed, in a rally leading up to the polls, a defiant Bolsonaro declared that he had only three options before him: jail, death or the presidency.

Bolsonaro then vowed not to go to jail.

The incumbents’ attacks on the voting system have prompted widespread concern among his opponents that he may reject election results. Some experts fear Bolsonaro’s die-hard supporters will enact a repeat of the 6 January capitol insurrection in the United States. “This flirting of Bolsonaro with a coup isn’t a new thing. It’s an old thing. The people who support him are willing to do anything. Just like supporters of Trump when the capitol was invaded. I have no doubt… I have even written about it. That here in Brazil, we could have a tragic, dramatic repetition of what occurred there,” professor Paulo Jose Cunha told DW. “Bolsonaro is seen as a threat beyond political divergencies, but also to democracy and institutions,” said Mário Braga, a political analyst at Control Risks, adding that it helps explain why da Silva has garnered a bevvy of endorsements. Bolsonaro has declared himself an unabashed admirer of the former US president and the American way of life. [caption id=“attachment_11202241” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] File image of Donald Trump. AP[/caption] Worse, unlike Trump, who did not have the support of the US military brass – the top US general in the lead-up to the polls publicly stated that the forces would play no role in the matter and that they swore an oath to the US constitution and not any individual – Bolsonaro has carefully cultivated the military by filled his government with its members. As per DW, Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo on Monday called on Brazilians “who have legally purchased guns” to enlist as “volunteers for Bolsonaro.” Earlier this year, accompanied by top adviser General Augusto Heleno, Bolsonaro said the armed forces “will not perform the role of just rubber stamping the electoral process, or taking part as spectators.” He suggested the military could conduct a parallel count of the results. Some of the military have even echoed Bolsonaro’s baseless claims with the defence ministry sending dozens of questions and suggestions to the electoral authority for potential improvements. Regardless of who wins at the polls, events in Brazil bear paying close attention. With inputs from agencies Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News ,  India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .