Earthquakes, Economy, United Opposition: Why Erdogan could lose Turkish election

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in the fight of his political life. Votes are already being cast in Turkey’s presidential election with Erdogan – who first came to power two decades ago – and his AKP party as the underdog against Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the 74-year-old leader of the center-left, pro-secular Republican People’s Party, or CHP, and the joint candidate of a united Opposition alliance. If neither candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the votes, the presidential race will be determined in a run-off on 28 May. Let’s take a closer look at why Erdogan could actually lose in Turkey: Earthquakes In February, Turkey was a series of devastating earthquakes that left over 50,000 dead. The government’s response to the quake – or lack of it – proved to be the last straw for many. A man in Hatay, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Guardian, “My district won’t support Erdoğan because we saw people die when the earthquake happened– people died but no rescue teams arrived on time. They left people to die, screaming and asking for help.”

“We need change, we’ve had enough,” said Mehmet Topaloglu.

Topaloglu was among the first to cast his ballot on Sunday in the southern Turkish city of Antakya, destroyed by this year’s devastating earthquake. “I voted Erdogan for his first two terms, but I won’t vote for him again, even if he were my father,” the farmer told AFP at an Antakya school used as a polling centre. Semra Karakas and her 23-year-old daughter Aylin endured a 14-hour bus ride to return to Antakya for the vote, after the quake forced them to leave and settle in the southern coastal city of Antalya. Speaking by containers acting as improvised polling stations, Aylin said the earthquake – and the state’s inadequate response to the emergency – reaffirmed her choice in the race between two presidential frontrunners, Erdogan and his secular rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu. [caption id=“attachment_12207332” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] More than 160,000 buildings containing 520,000 apartments collapsed or were severely damaged in the February 6 earthquakes that killed tens of thousands in Turkey and neighbouring Syria. Reuters[/caption] “The state didn’t come to our aid. They came three or four days afterwards,” added the architecture student, who thinks support for the conservative Erdogan in Antakya’s Hatay province will “fall a lot”. Semras recalled the images of dead babies lying in the rubble, some of whom perished due to the cold temperatures, and said the “catastrophe” would affect the polls. Medical worker Deryer Deniz, 35, has lived in cramped conditions in a tent since the tragedy, and thinks this year’s elections “are much more important”. She said she knew “many voters” who used to vote for Erdogan come what may have now changed their mind. Whether that would be enough to swing the poll in one way or another remained to be seen. “But if the government falls, Hatay will have played its role,” she concluded. A group of young people enter the school’s courtyard. Erdogan should “get lost”, said one of them, Sercan, who refused to reveal his surname after calling the Turkish leader all names under the sun. “All elections are important, but this one is even more so due to the earthquake,” added Cemil Kanatci, a man in his 70s, who coyly said it was “possible” he would vote differently. Economy The elections come as the country is wracked by economic turmoil that critics blame on the government’s mishandling of the economy and a steep cost-of-living crisis. Turkey’s consumer price index surged in the wake of a currency crisis sparked by an unorthodox easing cycle in late 2021. Interest rate cuts were part of Erdogan’s policy of prioritising growth, investment and low borrowing costs. The inflation surge, to above 85 per cent last year, hit Erdogan’s popularity

According to the BBC, inflation is officially at an eyewatering 46 per cent.

Burak Onder, speaking to the outlet at an Ankara optician, said, “People don’t even ask for discounts, they can’t afford it.” Another shopkeeper Rahime demonstrated how she constantly had to update price labels. Rahime’s 19-year-old daughter Sudenur told the outlet she is worried about her future. “We want our living standards to increase again. We have been through so much,” a man who travelled 18 hours to cast his vote told BBC. Opposition unity The Opposition under Kilicdaroglu is for the first time in many years united against Erdogan. According to PBS, Kilicdaroglu is heading a coalition of six parties including a nationalist party and a Kurdish outfit that are often at odds. Kurds, with 20 per cent, of the population, could be the all-important swing voters. Also, the contrast between the two leading men could not be starker. [caption id=“attachment_12568712” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main Opposition candidate, has promised to bring democracy and freedom to Turkey. Reuters File Photo[/caption] Erdogan is the man who rose from a hardscrabble part of Istanbul to become Turkey’s longest-serving leader – a devout 69-year-old who has created chronic headaches for the West and become a hero for Turkey’s working classes. “Erdogan is our chief and we are his soldiers,” 48-year-old Sennur Henek told AFP while attending one of the president’s packed campaign rallies. Kilicdaroglu is a bookish former civil servant from a historically repressed Kurdish group who has lost half a dozen national elections to Erdogan while leading his secular party. His frank kitchen chats with voters have turned him into a social media star at the age of 74. Kilicdaroglu also promises to retire after stripping the presidency of Erdogan’s powers and then “go spend time with my grandchildren”. Many say they are voting for Kilicdaroglu for the simple reason that he is not Erdogan. “We have a party here that has been ruling for 20 years and that alone is a scandal,” Ankara worker Mehmet Cankurnaz said on the eve of one of Turkey’s most consequential elections of its modern era. Kilicdaroglu hopes to swiftly undo what Erdogan spent more than two decades building. He would start by moving the presidency out of the 1,100-room marble palace that Erdogan erected in Ankara and back into the more humble abode used by Ataturk. “I will bring spring to this land. I will bring serenity,” he once said. It is a promise that has captivated the youth and a cross-section of Turks exhausted by Erdogan’s culture wars and polarising rhetoric. Kilicdaroglu also pledges to release many of the popular figures jailed by Erdogan’s government in the wake of a failed but bloody 2016 coup attempt. He vows to end Erdogan’s “one-man regime” and the stigmatisation of feminists and the LGBTQ community. But he is also trying to temper his secular stance by committing himself to prescribe Erdogan’s removal of headscarf restrictions into Turkish law. Kilicdaroglu’s defining campaign moment came when he tweeted a video in which he broke a Turkish cultural taboo by talking about being Alevi. The group has been targeted by violent repressions because it follows a more spiritual Islamic tradition that separates it from Sunni and Shiite Muslims. “God gave me my life,” Kilicdaroglu said in the video. “I am not sinful.” [caption id=“attachment_12568852” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Kemal Kilicdaroglu supporters making his  trademark heart-shape gesture with his hands Reuters[/caption] Some analysts are portraying the vote in terms as stark as the difference between the two candidates. “Either Erdogan will lose, giving Turkey a chance of restoring full democracy, or he will win and likely remain in power for the rest of his life,” Washington Institute senior fellow Soner Cagaptay said. “Policy differences over the economy are the reason why markets will be watching this election closely,” said Hamish Kinnear of the Verisk Maplecroft consultancy. But veteran Turkey watcher Timothy Ash posed a contrarian question. “Will voters opt for the ‘devil you know’ in Erdogan or an untested broad coalition which could easily splinter after elections?” Ash asked. “And with Erdogan, they know he will strut his stuff on the international stage, batting for what he, and many of them, will view as Turkish national interests.” Ash still predicted a narrow Kilicdaroglu win. Opinion surveys give Kilicdaroglu the edge over Erdogan. According to The Guardian, 600 Vekil, a poll of polls, gives Kilicdaroglu a 63 per cent chance of winning. The polls also say the AKP could see its parliament majority disappear. Will Erdogan concede? Erdogan has led a divisive election campaign, using state resources and his domineering position over media, as he has done previously. He has accused the Opposition among other things of being “drunkards” and of upholding LGBTQ rights which he says are a threat to traditional family values as well as colluding with “terrorists.”

Erdogan last week claimed that his opponent is being backed by Kurdish militia PKK.

“My people will not surrender this country to an individual who became president with the backing they received from Kandil,” Erdogan was quoted as saying last week by Daily Beast. Erdogan’s top adviser has claimed an Opposition win could threaten Turkey’s “territorial integrity”. A coalition partner, Devlet Bahceli, said Opposition officials could find “bullets in their bodies” or be jailed for life.

Now, many are asking if he will actually concede.

Time Magazine noted that Erdogan in 2019 actually ordered a rerun after his party candidate lost the mayor’s race for Istanbul. The only thing that might stop him this time it is his name on the ballot – and that the candidate actually lost by a far wider margin during the rerun. The piece still noted that underestimating Erdogan’s readiness to tell his supporters to take to the streets and prompting a response from the Opposition would be an error. “All the people I know want to get rid of Erdoğan,” a man in Hatay told The Guardian. “My fear is that the government will manipulate the results if they see that they’re losing, or that people who support them will fight in the streets. People think it’s not going to be a normal night.” Hasan Sinar, an associate professor of criminal law at Altinbas University in Istanbul, told The New York Times Turkey’s election board is neutral ‘on paper’. “But when the government stays in power so long, no one in that position can be neutral anymore.” Any doubt about the electoral board’s neutrality was detrimental to Turkey’s democracy, he added. “This is never supposed to be poisoned by doubt,” he said. But Erdogan said in an interview with more than a dozen Turkish broadcasters on Friday that he came to power through democracy and would act in line with the democratic process. Time Magazine also added that underestimating the chances that Erdogan could actually pull off a win would be a mistake. “His political talent and the loyalty of his supporters remain formidable,” the piece noted. With inputs from agencies Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .