“My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier,” said Donald Trump on January 20 when he took the oath of office for a second time.
Now, two months later, it seems that his January statement may hold true, as Ukraine and Russia agreed in principle to a limited ceasefire after Trump spoke with the countries’ leaders this week.
The question that everyone is now asking is: Are we closer to seeing the Russia-Ukraine war end? We try to answer this.
Ukraine agrees to partial ceasefire
After holding an hour-long phone call with Donald Trump , Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to a partial ceasefire with Russia focused on “energy and other civilian infrastructure.” He added that it is the first step in what could be “lasting peace” more than three years after the small country was invaded by Moscow.
“We believe that together with America, with President Trump, and under American leadership, lasting peace can be achieved this year,” Zelenskyy wrote in a post on X. “One of the first steps toward fully ending the war could be ending strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure. I supported this step, and Ukraine confirmed that we are ready to implement it.”
Later, in a Zoom call, Zelenskyy said he had felt no pressure” from Trump, adding: “It was a fruitful conversation, perhaps the most fruitful we have had, the mood was positive.
“We have received signals from the United States that we are talking about the ceasefire on energy facilities, so as not to attack energy infrastructure, and we are also talking about the civilian infrastructure facilities.”
Trump, too, described the phone call with Zelenskyy — his first interaction with the Ukrainian leader since their showdown at the Oval Office — as “very good”.
“Much of the discussion was based on the call made yesterday with President Putin in order to align both Russia and Ukraine in terms of their requests and needs,” he wrote on Truth Social.
Later Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a more detailed statement, saying that Trump had agreed to help Ukraine source additional air defence systems, particularly in Europe. The two leaders “agreed to share information closely between their defence staffs as the battlefield situation evolved,” he said.
During the phone call, Trump also raised the possibility of the US taking ownership of Ukraine’s power plants, adding that it would be the “best protection” for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Ukraine’s agreement to the partial ceasefire came after Russia’s Vladimir Putin in a phone call with Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on energy infrastructure in Ukraine. The Russian strongman, however, declined to commit to the 30-day full ceasefire plan pitched by Trump last week and agreed to by Ukraine.
The devil’s in the details
While Ukraine and Russia agreed in principle to a limited ceasefire, the specifics of the deal remain murky and its implementation even more questionable.
Firstly, there are discrepancies in the language used by the White House and the Kremlin and how Kyiv interprets all of it. Zelenskyy said that the proposed pause in attacks on Ukrainian and Russian targets would “most likely” apply to “energy facilities” — but that “civilian infrastructure” was also being talked about.
However, readouts from the Trump-Putin call on Tuesday used different language. While Washington said “energy and infrastructure” in its readout, Moscow said, “energy infrastructure.” As CNN noted in one analysis, the small difference in language could be significant, as a pause on infrastructure attacks would have a far broader scope.
There are also differences in commitments to Ukraine. In its readout, the Kremlin said that a key condition for lasting peace would have to include “complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.”
However, the White House made no mention of this commitment. In fact, Trump, speaking on Fox News, denied this had ever come up: “No, we didn’t talk about aid, actually, we didn’t talk about aid at all. We talked about a lot of things but aid was never discussed,” he said.
However, Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, directly contradicted Trump, saying: “The need to halt arms supplies to Kyiv was discussed during Putin and Trump’s conversation,” he said. Ceasing military aid would be “high on the agenda in negotiations between Russia and the US, but the topic will not be discussed publicly”, Peskov added.
Scepticism abounds
There’s also hesitation from Kyiv about Putin’s intentions. This comes as Russia carried out a series of attacks in Ukraine that included hitting energy targets, just hours after the phone call between Trump and Putin.
Other analysts as well as world leaders also question whether this pause between Russia and Ukraine would convert to peace. Germany’s Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius in an interview with the German broadcaster ZDF, said, “Attacks on civilian infrastructure in the first night after this supposedly pivotal and great phone call have not abated. Putin is playing a game here and I’m sure that the American president won’t be able to sit and watch for much longer.”
He added that Putin’s commitment to stop attacks on energy targets was “basically nothing” because such infrastructure in Ukraine was already the “best protected”.
Other European leaders also downplayed any hope of an actual end to the war, saying that Putin’s condition of stopping aid to Ukraine is unrealistic. As Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said, “Ukraine has an undeniable right to defend itself on its own and supported by its partners. This right cannot be restricted in any way, not now, and not in the future.”
Jennifer Kavanaugh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, also told AFP that there was reason for optimism from Trump’s Ukraine diplomacy, but that Putin has the upper hand on the ground and is not going to compromise easily. “To me, this was a positive step forward that set the ground for some confidence building, both between Ukraine and Russia and between Trump and European allies who are very concerned about his negotiating style,” she said.
Now, all eyes turn to Saudi Arabia where technical discussions on a possible deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war will begin Monday in Saudi Arabia. As US envoy Steve Witkoff said, “I believe on Monday we actually have the technical teams going. They agreed on a pathway to some ceasefire conditions… and to a full-on ceasefire that will be negotiated over the coming days. I actually think in a couple of weeks we’re going to get to it.”
With inputs from agencies