Donald Trump hasn't been as bad for China as expected. Here's why

Donald Trump has been in office for just a few days.

But some are already looking at the positive signs.

For example, Trump hasn’t been as bad for China as expected.

Though he had threatened heavy tariffs on China as soon as he took office, that hasn’t happened.

But what happened? And why has Trump gone easy on China thus far?

Let’s take a closer look:

What happened?

Trump said earlier this week he plans to impose duties on imports from Mexico and Canada from February 1 and that he will apply tariffs on imports from the European Union.

But Trump has not, as he vowed to do, imposed tariffs as heavy as 60 per cent on China as soon as he took office.

As per Al Jazeera, Trump had invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration.

Xi’s deputy Han Zheng attended in his stead – becoming the most senior Chinese official to ever attend such an event.

Though Trump has mused about imposing a 10 per cent tariff on China over the flow of fentanyl to America, on Thursday he said he had a friendly conversation with China’s Xi Jinping last week.

As per CNN, Trump has said he would be interested in visiting Beijing in a few months.

Trump has also halted the ban on TikTok until April.

He has expressed confidence about reaching a trade deal with Beijing.

“It went fine. It was a good, friendly conversation,” Trump said of his call with Xi in an interview with Fox News aired on Thursday evening.

“I can do that,” Trump said in the interview when asked if he could make a deal with China over fair trade practices.

Trump said he would rather not use tariffs against China but called tariffs a “tremendous power.”

“But we have one very big power over China, and that’s tariffs, and they don’t want them, and I’d rather not have to use it, but it’s a tremendous power over China,” Trump added.

BBC quoted Trump as saying that “China gets a lot of its money from America and they use that money to build up their military.”

As per CNN, Xi pushed for a “new starting point” in US-China ties during the call with Trump .

“The important thing is to respect each other’s core interests,” Xi, referring to Taiwan, said.

He added that while the US needs to be prudent about Taiwan, a “broad space of cooperation” can be availed on other issues.

Trump had previously threatened a 10 per cent duty on Chinese imports because of the trade, but realigned that with the February 1 deadline.

China said it was willing to maintain communication with the US to “properly handle differences and expand mutually beneficial cooperation”. It sought to promote stable and sustainable ties with the US, the foreign ministry said.

Trump on Monday signed a broad trade memorandum, opens new tab ordering federal agencies to complete comprehensive reviews of a range of trade issues by April 1.

These include analyses of persistent US trade deficits, unfair trade practices and currency manipulation among partner countries, including China. Trump’s memo asked for recommendations on remedies, including a “global supplemental tariff,” and changes to the $800 de minimis duty-free exemption for low-value shipments often blamed for illicit imports of fentanyl precursor chemicals.

The reviews ordered create some breathing room to resolve reported disagreements among Trump’s cabinet nominees over how to approach his promises of universal tariffs and duties on Chinese goods of up to 60% per cent.

What do experts say?

They say the signs, for now, are positive.

“China realises that’s there an opportunity to negotiate with Trump,” political scholar Liu Dongshu of the City University of Hong Kong told CNN. “And a better US-China relationship is more important to China than to United States … so China is eager” to engage.

Trump likely “decided to go a little slower and also to make sure he has as firm a legal foundation as he can get for these kinds of actions,” said William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “He’s figuring out how to best use his leverage to get what he wants.”

Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Research Programme and a China studies fellow at Indian public policy centre Takshashila Institution, told Al Jazeera, “The Biden administration levy has tabled restrictions on trade and tech with China, which will be difficult for Trump to walk back on.”

“I do anticipate an increase in tariffs, but maybe not as big as 60 per cent.”

He warned of a “significant cost explosion for American consumers”.

“Trump sees tariffs as important, not just from an economic point of view, but also from a negotiating point of view,” Kewalramani added.

They said China is treading cautiously.

“China has realised Trump can be negotiated with, but he is a different, new Trump – what we committed to last time may not satisfy his new desires,” Shanghai-based foreign affairs analyst Shen Dingli told CNN. This time, instead of being “coerced” into a tit-for-tat trade war by Trump, Beijing may do better to “smile, stay calm, and start talking with him,” Shen said.

A piece in Bloomberg noted that it’s difficult to figure out what Trump was playing at with his latest remarks.

“That said, it’s difficult to see Trump backing down from his tariff threats. And analysis by Bloomberg Economics shows there’s a lot at stake for China and the world,” the piece noted.

A piece in NDTV said recent developments show China is prepared for what is to come.

“Trump can threaten tariffs, but China isn’t going to stand still. It has positioned itself well to play the long game. What’s more, even as analysts obsess over the confrontational aspects of US-China relations, signs of mutual recognition and goodwill persist,” the piece stated.

It said the main issue is if America is prepared for a trade war with a far stronger China..

“Trump’s stance on China is no longer a one-dimensional tale of bluster and bravado. His outreach to Xi—whether strategic, self-serving, or both—suggests he’s playing a more complex game. If anything, the post-inauguration optics reveal that while Trump talks tough, he might just leave a door ajar for negotiations,” the piece concluded.

BBC quoted foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning as saying that economic and trade co-operation between Washington and Beijing are “mutually beneficial and win-win”.

“There are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars, which are not in the interests of either side and are not in the interest of the world,” Mao added.

With inputs from agencies