Why does Trump 2.0 pose challenges for India?

On Monday, Donald Trump was sworn into office as the 47th President of the United States.

He vowed to launch a ‘golden age’ for America and claimed that he would “give the people back their faith, their wealth, their democracy and indeed their freedom.”

“From this moment on America’s decline is over,” Trump added.

While this may be music to the ears of the Maga faithful followers, others may feel a tad nervous.

New Delhi, for example, will be watching Trump’s moves closely.

But why does Trump 2.0 pose challenges for India?

Let’s take a closer look:

Immigration, deportation

Trump signed a slew of executive orders including declaring illegal immigration at the US-Mexico border a national emergency and suspending the US refugee resettlement program for four months

Trump had vowed to launch ‘the biggest deportation programme in the history of America.’

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In his inaugural address, Trump said, “All illegal entry will immediately be halted, and we will begin the process of returning millions and millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places from which they came.”

Undocumented Indians in the US have reason to be nervous.

According to The Times of India, there are 7.25 lakh undocumented Indians in the United States.

Indians are the third-largest undocumented group after Mexicans (40 lakh) and those from El Salvador (7.5 lakh).

Trump has claimed that America has around 20 to 25 million illegal immigrants. He has vowed to go after the criminals first.

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NDTV quoted US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) that Indians comprise 17,940 of the 1.4 million that face final removal orders.

ICE has claimed it catches around 90,000 Indian nationals trying to come to the US illegally every year.

Most of these come from Punjab, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh.

ICE has India 13th on the list of countries when it comes to undocumented immigrants.

Even worse for New Delhi is the fact that India has been designated “uncooperative” by ICE.

This is because of delays in confirming citizenship and issuing travel documents for deportation.

Pakistan, China, Iran, and Venezuela are the other countries that have been classified as “uncooperative.”

Citizenship

Trump has also signed an executive order to end birthright citizenship.

According to India Today, the executive orders states that for a child born in the US to become a citizen, at least one parent must be a citizen, a green card holder or in the US military.

“Among the categories of individuals born in the United States and not subject to the jurisdiction thereof, the privilege of United States citizenship does not automatically extend to persons born in the United States: (1) when that person’s mother was unlawfully present in the United States and the father was not a United States citizen or lawful permanent resident at the time of said person’s birth, or (2) when that person’s mother’s presence in the United States at the time of said person’s birth was lawful but temporary (such as, but not limited to, visiting the United States under the auspices of the Visa Waiver Program or visiting on a student, work, or tourist visa) and the father was not a United States citizen or lawful permanent resident at the time of said person’s birth,” the order states.

A Trump administration official in a briefing, referring to the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, said, “The federal government will not recognize automatic birthright citizenship for children of illegal aliens born in the United States. We are also going to enhance vetting and screening of illegal aliens.”

This executive order, if upheld by the court, would greatly impact the Indian-American community.

According to the outlet, there are 5.4 Indian-Americans in the US – comprising 1.47 per cent of the population.

While two-thirds are immigrants, the rest are born in the US.

Trump ’s order basically means the children of Indian citizens in America on work visas or in line for green cards would no longer become US citizens automatically.

This could potentially affect hundreds of thousands of children every year.

Immigrant and civil rights advocates, including the American Civil Liberties Union, have already filed a lawsuit challenging Trump ’s executive order.

“Immigrants’ rights advocates today sued the Trump administration over its executive order that seeks to strip certain babies born in the United States of their US citizenship,” the advocates said in a statement that called the order unconstitutional.

Trump previously said he “absolutely” planned to halt birthright citizenship once in office.

“We’re going to end that because it’s ridiculous,” he added.

Tariffs

Trump in his inaugural address vowed to ‘impose tariffs and tax foreign countries to enrich America’s citizens.’

As per CNN, Trump announced that his administration would impose 25 per cent tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1.

Though Trump made no mention of tariffs on India, he previously vowed to impose 100 per cent and 200 per cent tariff on goods from India.

“The word reciprocal is important because if somebody charges us — India, we don’t have to talk about our own — if India charges us 100 per cent, do we charge them nothing for the same? You know, they send in a bicycle and we send them a bicycle. They charge us 100 and 200. India charges a lot. Brazil charges a lot. If they want to charge us, that’s fine, but we’re going to charge them the same thing,” Trump previously

According to India Today, this could damage India’s export sector, particularly industries that cater to the US market.

Indian exporters might find less of a demand for their products in America.

This in turn could bring down sales and income for Indian businesses – thereby having a cascading effect on employment and economic growth.

If India responds in kind, it may also increase the prices Indian consumers have to pay for US goods – thus making things more expensive.

As per The Times of India, Trump, speaking about India and tariffs at a rally before his election, said, “India is a very big charger. We have a great relationship with India. I did. And especially the leader, Modi. He’s a great leader. Great man. Really is a great man. He brought it together. He’s done a great job. But they probably charge as much.”

Trump previously called India an ‘abuser of tariffs’ and a ‘tariff king.’

Trade wars

According to Economic Times, Trump’s threatened tariffs on China risk sparking a trade war.

India has also taken flak for its high import duties on certain products like US motorcycles.

While Trump did not mention a trade war against India in his inaugural speech or issue an executive action regarding the same, that could change in an instant.

As per the newspaper, the trade war between US and China could actually lead to a chance for India to get foreign investments instead of China.

Trump famously said trade wars are good and easy to win.

We shall see if that is indeed the case.

What do experts say?

Huma Siddique, writing in the Financial Express, said that the fear within the Indian community when it comes to Trumps’s immigration policies is palpable.

“The fear within the Indian community in the US is palpable. Many have lived in the US for years, sometimes for decades, and have become part of the fabric of American society. For those without proper documentation, however, the risk of deportation has now become a real and looming threat,” Siddique wrote.

“As Trump’s second term progresses, the fate of millions of undocumented immigrants remains uncertain. With deportations set to intensify, including a significant number of Indian nationals, the situation is expected to strain both US immigration systems and India-US relations.”

Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor at ET Now, said India ought to take a cautious approach to a potential trade war.

“Aggressive retaliation may lead to escalation, as Trump is likely to respond with even harsher measures. Instead, India should aim for limited escalation, maintain strategic patience, and prepare for policy shifts post-Trump’s tenure,” Swaminathan wrote.

With inputs from agencies