Denmark warns US over Greenland. But can its armed forces really fend off invasion?

Denmark has issued a warning to the United States over Greenland.

As US President Donald Trump has continued to publicly discuss how to acquire Greenland, Danish leaders have warned that they will adopt a ‘shoot first and ask questions later’ approach in the event of an invasion.

Trump has repeatedly stressed that the US “needs” Greenland for strategic and national security reasons. His remarks have upset European leaders, including many in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) bloc.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said he will meet top Danish leaders next week. There are reports that France and Germany are working on a plan in case the US invades Greenland. Some have warned that such a move could signal the end of Nato.

More from Explainers

Power, law and empire: Seismic implications of American military operation in Venezuela Three Indians among crew of Russian oil tanker seized by the US in Atlantic

But what do we know? How strong are Denmark’s armed forces? Can they stand up to the United States?

What we know about Denmark’s forces

According to Denmark’s Defence Ministry, its soldiers are mandated to immediately respond to an invasion with force under a Cold War-era rule. They can do so without waiting for formal or political approval.

The Defence Ministry told Danish newspaper Berlingske that its soldiers are required to take up the fight immediately if attacked, and that the rule remains in force.

The 1952 rule states that, in the event of an invasion, troops must react “without waiting for or seeking orders, even if the commanders in question are not aware of the declaration of war or state of war”.

First, let’s take a look at the numbers.

Denmark has a population of around 6 million people. According to Global Firepower, whose rankings assess 145 countries on the basis of their conventional military strength, Denmark is ranked 45th.

Editor’s Picks

1

When the US tried to buy Greenland in the past and failed 2

Military use, purchase or... Inside Donald Trump’s plan to seize Greenland

Denmark has around 83,000 military personnel. Active personnel number just 20,000, reserves stand at 12,000, and paramilitary forces number 51,000. When it comes to aircraft, Denmark has a total of 117, including around three dozen fighter planes, four transport aircraft, and 34 helicopters.

Denmark also has 44 tanks, 3,856 armoured vehicles, and eight rocket systems. Its navy operates around 50 ships, including nine frigates, nine patrol vessels, and six mine warfare vessels. It has no aircraft carriers, destroyers, corvettes, or submarines listed under GFP criteria.

“The task of the Armed Forces is to ensure security throughout the Kingdom – and, if necessary, to defend Greenland, the Faroe Islands and Denmark within the framework of Nato in all domains,” Michael Hyldgaard, Greenland’s Chief of Defence, told Danish public broadcaster DR.

Denmark is also boosting its defence budget

According to the BBC, Denmark has announced it will spend an additional $4.2 billion (Rs 37,884 crore approx) on defence to increase security in the Arctic and North Atlantic regions, including Greenland.

The Nato member will also buy 16 more F-35 fighter jets from the US at a cost of $4.5 billion (Rs 40,590 crore approx), bringing its total fleet to 43 aircraft.

“With this… agreement we significantly strengthen the capabilities of the Danish Armed Forces in the region,” Denmark’s Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said in a statement on Friday.

How the US compares, what experts think

The US has around 2.13 million military personnel, including 1.33 million active-duty troops and 800,000 reservists.

It operates around 13,000 military aircraft, including approximately 1,790 fighter jets, nearly 5,850 helicopters, and more than 600 aerial refuelling tankers.

Its defence budget stands at a staggering $895 billion (Rs 80.73 lakh crore approx) — by far the largest in the world. This is more than the combined military spending of the next eight to ten nations, including China, Russia, India, the UK, France, Germany, Japan, and South Korea.

The United States also has something Denmark does not: nuclear weapons. Denmark is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Experts say Denmark realistically has little chance of fending off US troops if it comes down to an invasion.

Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, told Politico that “there is no defensive capacity in Greenland”. He said a US invasion of Greenland would result in “the shortest war in the world”.

Kristian Søby Kristensen, a military researcher at the University of Copenhagen, added, “There would be no military response to it because it is unthinkable that any Nato member would attack the US.”

A Danish politician, speaking off the record, said Greenland cannot rally to its own defence. “It could be like five helicopters… he wouldn’t need a lot of troops. There would be nothing they [Greenlanders] could do,” the politician said.

Europe backs up Greenland

Leaders from major European powers and Canada have rallied behind Greenland this week, saying it belongs to its people.

Britain said Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has said he stands with Denmark over Greenland, spoke with Trump on Wednesday and set out his position.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said, “We want to take action, but we want to do so together with our European partners.”

A German government source said Germany was “closely working together with other European countries and Denmark on the next steps”.

A senior European official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Denmark must lead efforts to coordinate a response, but added that “the Danes have yet to communicate to their European allies what kind of concrete support they wish to receive”.

Johannes Koskinen, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of Finland’s parliament, called for the issue to be raised at Nato, whose decision-making North Atlantic Council meets next on Thursday.

Koskinen said Nato allies should “address whether something needs to be done and whether the United States should be brought into line in the sense that it cannot disregard jointly agreed plans in order to pursue its own power ambitions”.

The world’s largest island, with a population of just 57,000, Greenland is not an independent member of Nato but is covered by Denmark’s membership.

EU Council President Antonio Costa said the European Union would support Greenland and Denmark when needed and would not accept violations of international law, no matter where they occur.

Andreas Østhagen, research director at the Oslo-based Fridtjof Nansen Institute, said statements from European political leaders showed real political will.

“It is about political solidarity, but also about self-preservation — all Western countries have a desire to retain the principle of state sovereignty,” he said.

France’s Barrot suggested Rubio had ruled out a military operation.

“I myself was on the phone with the Secretary of State yesterday… he discarded the idea that what just happened in Venezuela could happen in Greenland,” he said.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and his Greenlandic counterpart, Vivian Motzfeldt, requested an urgent meeting with Rubio to discuss the situation.

“We would like to add some nuance to the conversation,” Rasmussen wrote on social media. “The shouting match must be replaced by a more sensible dialogue. Now.”

Greenland continues to reject annexation by the US, said Aaja Chemnitz, a Greenlandic member of the Danish parliament. “Greenland has never been for sale and never will be for sale,” she said, adding that US officials not ruling out a military intervention was “completely appalling”.

With inputs from agencies