 "US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talk outside the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, US, January 27, 2020. File Image/Reuters")
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet US President Donald Trump on Tuesday in Washington, becoming the first foreign leader to be hosted at the White House since Trump’s return to office.
The meeting comes at a critical moment for West Asia, as a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas remains in place, regional tensions persist, and efforts to counter Iran continue.
Netanyahu, facing political challenges at home and growing international scrutiny over the Gaza war, hopes to leverage his strong relationship with Trump to secure continued US backing.
Meanwhile, Trump, eager to cement his influence in Middle East diplomacy, is pushing for expanded regional agreements, particularly the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
However, with Netanyahu’s hardline stance on Palestinian statehood and the ongoing instability in Gaza, the question remains: how far will Trump go to help Netanyahu “redraw the map” of the Middle East?
The ceasefire & Netanyahu’s political survival
At the heart of Netanyahu’s visit is the six-week Gaza ceasefire, a deal that Trump has taken credit for brokering even before assuming office. The truce, secured through indirect negotiations involving Qatar and Egypt, has so far led to the release of 18 hostages — 13 Israelis and five Thais — in exchange for 583 Palestinian prisoners.
The deal has also facilitated a significant increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza and the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces.
However, Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that the ceasefire is only temporary and that Israel reserves the right to resume its military operations against Hamas.
His far-right coalition partners are pressuring him to do just that, with one ally already quitting the government over what he called a “reckless” ceasefire agreement. Another minister has warned he will withdraw support if the fighting does not resume, potentially causing Netanyahu to lose his parliamentary majority.
The next phase of the ceasefire, set to be discussed in Washington, is supposed to lead to a more permanent end to hostilities and the release of additional hostages.
Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who played a key role in securing the first phase of the deal, is expected to be central in these negotiations. Witkoff has said he is “hopeful” the truce will hold, though Trump himself has acknowledged that there are “no assurances.”
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump is expected to include requests for continued arms shipments, following Trump’s decision to approve the transfer of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel — munitions that had been blocked under the Biden administration.
Saudi Arabia, the Abraham Accords & Palestinian statehood
One of Trump’s key foreign policy priorities is expanding the Abraham Accords, the agreements brokered during his first term that normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states. The administration’s primary focus is securing a historic agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia , which would mark a significant shift in regional geopolitics.
However, Saudi Arabia has hardened its stance since the start of the Gaza war, making it clear that normalisation is “off the table” unless there is a concrete path toward Palestinian statehood.
Netanyahu, who has long opposed the establishment of a Palestinian state, faces a dilemma: to maintain his far-right coalition at home, he must reject any concessions to the Palestinians, but to align with Trump’s vision, he may need to show flexibility.
In Israel, opposition to Palestinian statehood has grown since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, which killed approximately 1,200 Israelis and saw 251 people taken hostage. Netanyahu and his allies argue that a Palestinian state would become a “terror state,” making normalisation with Saudi Arabia even more complicated.
Iran & regional security challenges
Iran remains a key topic on the agenda, particularly given its direct attacks on Israel last year, which led to Israeli retaliatory strikes that reportedly crippled Tehran’s air defences.
Trump and Netanyahu have both vowed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and concerns have grown in Tehran that the Israeli leader might seek US approval for a military strike on its nuclear facilities.
Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018, aligning with Netanyahu’s long-standing position that the agreement was too weak to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear ambitions.
Both leaders have insisted they will do whatever it takes to stop Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, though Iran denies pursuing them.
Trump’s new administration has already made significant policy shifts favouring Israel, including lifting sanctions on Israeli settlers accused of violence against Palestinians and greenlighting previously blocked arms shipments.
Many of Trump’s key advisors on the Middle East are strong supporters of Israel, which is expected to influence the administration’s approach to issues like settlement expansion in the West Bank.
Netanyahu’s diplomatic and domestic challenges
For Netanyahu, the Washington visit is a high-stakes opportunity to restore his international standing, particularly following the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) issuance of an arrest warrant against him for alleged war crimes.
The US does not recognise the ICC and has strongly condemned its move, ensuring that Netanyahu faces no legal risks during his visit.
Beyond his meeting with Trump, Netanyahu is also expected to hold discussions with senior Trump aides, congressional leaders, and pro-Israel groups to reinforce support for continued US military and diplomatic backing.
However, his balancing act between appeasing Trump’s regional ambitions and satisfying his domestic political base will not be easy.
The ceasefire deal has divided Israeli politicians, with hardliners like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich denouncing it as a security risk that prevents Israel from fully defeating Hamas.
At the same time, Israeli Opposition leader Yair Lapid has offered Netanyahu a political “safety net” to continue negotiations. “There is no political reason preventing Netanyahu from going to the next phase,” Lapid said, hinting at broader Israeli public support for extending the truce to secure the release of more hostages.
Before departing for Washington, Netanyahu told reporters that his government’s military decisions had already “redrawn the map” of the Middle East and that he believed working with Trump could “redraw it even further and for the better.”
While Trump and Netanyahu have shared a close alliance, their personal relationship has had its ups and downs. Trump has previously expressed frustration over Netanyahu’s actions, particularly after the 2020 US election when Netanyahu congratulated Joe Biden on his victory.
The upcoming meeting will test how well the two leaders can align their strategic goals moving forward.
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With inputs from agencies