How long will Sheikh Hasina remain in India? What happens if the UK says no to her asylum request?

Forty-five minutes. That’s all the time now ousted Bangladesh prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, got to pack up and flee the country after resigning. Soon after she fled, a sea of protesters stormed her official residence — the Ganabhaban — and ransacked the premises.

As per reports by Prothom Alo, a Bangladeshi daily, she had wanted to address the nation about her decision, but given the sea of protesters coming her way, authorities told her she had no time, resulting in her and her sister, Rehana, fleeing with a few of their bags.

On board a C-130 J transport aircraft, accompanied by seven military personnel, Hasina then made her way to India, landing at Ghaziabad’s Hindon air base on the evening of Monday (August 5). She met with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, accompanied by senior officials at the air base and has now moved to a ‘safe house’. It is reported that New Delhi carried out a massive exercise —deploying Rafale jets — to ensure that Hasina was granted safe passage to the country as part of her plan to travel to London where she will seek asylum.

Now, hours after Hasina landed in India, she has yet to make any movement, with reports saying that she still remains in the ‘safe house’ designated for her. The question then remains: How long will she stay in India? And what are the challenges of her staying here?

How long will Hasina stay in India?

After Hasina resigned as the prime minister of Bangladesh, she was offered a military helicopter by the Bangladesh army. She flew out of her official residence in Dhaka, ‘ Ganabhaban ’, which was stormed by protesters soon after she left.

The Bangladesh leader headed to an army air base from where she reportedly boarded the C-130J military transport aircraft of the Bangladesh air force. Soon, her flight, ‘AJAX1431’, became the most-tracked flight on Flightradar24.

Amid all the speculation on where she would land — initial reports said that she would arrive in Kolkata or Agartala — her flight made its way to Hindon Airbase around 5.45 pm on Monday (5 August) where she was greeted by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. The Hindon Airbase, according to many, was the eventual choice because of its proximity to Delhi; it is 30 km from the national capital. It would provide foolproof security to Hasina.

Following an hour-long meeting with NSA Doval, she was then taken to a “safe house” in Delhi.

However, India is only a temporary stop for Hasina. She is reportedly seeking asylum in the UK.

It remains unclear how much longer she will remain in India, but External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar dropped indicators on Tuesday that the former Bangladeshi PM’s stay will continue for a while.

Speaking to an all-party meeting in Parliament House, where Rahul Gandhi and others were present, S Jaishankar said that the government had spoken to Hasina about her plans for her future. “The government wants to give Hasina some time to decide her future plan,” sources quoted Jaishankar as saying.

He added that it had not even been 24 hours since the former Bangladeshi PM had arrived in India and that she was in a state of shock. Moreover, the government was giving her time to recover before it spoke to her over various issues, including her future plans.

Meanwhile, the plane that ferried her to India has left Hindon Airbase, as per a Hindustan Times report. The aircraft took off around 9:00 am with seven military personnel and was flying towards its base in Bangladesh.

What about her UK asylum?

Early on, when Hasina was en route to India, all reports stated that her stay in India would be temporary, as she is seeking political asylum in London, UK. According to a previous report, London seems to be the best option for Hasina, as the English capital has deep familial connections to her family. Her sister, Rehana, is a British citizen. Moreover, Hasina’s niece, Tulip Siddiq, is an MP in the UK House of Commons and Junior Minister in the Keir Starmer government.

However, there seems to be a delay in granting her stay. The UK Home Office told CNBCTV18 that British immigration rules do not allow individuals to travel to that country to seek asylum or temporary refuge — a sign that she may not get to travel to the UK.

Moreover, the UK government also said individuals seeking asylum must do so “in the first safe country they reach”. “The UK has a proud record of providing protection for people who need it. However, there is no provision for someone to be allowed to travel to the UK to seek asylum or temporary refuge, said the Home Office.

“Those who need international protection should claim asylum in the first safe country they reach — that is the fastest route to safety,” a UK Home Office spokesperson also told NDTV.

In the past, the UK has given political asylum to leaders, political agents and even spies from many countries. The UK has given asylum to former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif, pro-democracy lawmakers from Hong Kong, Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko and more people. However, there is a sizeable group of Bangladeshis in the UK who don’t support her.

Why Hasina’s stay in India could be a problem?

In case, the UK doesn’t grant Hasina asylum, India faces the diplomatic dilemma of either allowing Hasina’s stay in the nation or making her move.

But it’s not an easy choice. If New Delhi permits the former Bangladesh PM to remain in the country, it gives the appearance that the nation is backing an ousted leader. Moreover, it may complicate relationships with the new government in Bangladesh. India can’t afford to alienate or anger Bangladesh — where an anti-India sentiment already exists — if it wants to secure its position in the neighbourhood.

However, India has long historical ties with Sheikh Hasina and her family. Before she became prime minister, the Indira Gandhi government had given her refuge when her family had been assassinated during the 1975 unrest in Bangladesh. Moreover, in her 15 years of power, she has been a staunch ally of the country, protecting India’s security interests. So abandoning her at this point will also not be an easy decision, considering her equations with Delhi.

What are Hasina’s other options?

If not India, or the UK, where else could Hasina go next? While there is no official confirmation, CNN-News18 has learned that she is exploring the option of going to Scandinavian countries as well.

Another option that Hasina has, though very unlikely, is that she makes a return to Bangladesh. Her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy had indicated the same when he told CNN-News18 that she won’t return to Bangladesh.

With inputs from agencies