 "People celebrate the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka, Bangladesh, August 5, 2024. Reuters")
The ‘Iron Lady’ of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, has been ousted.
As she fled her own country on Monday, her presidential residence was stormed and looted, her father and state founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s statue was vandalised, and an interim government is about to be formed.
The flight into exile ended a 15-year second stint in power for Hasina, who has ruled for 20 of the last 30 years as leader of the political movement inherited from her father, assassinated with most of his family in a 1975 coup.
However, this political turmoil is not just affecting the country, but also its neighbour India.
From travel to border security, here’s how Hasina’s resignation is affecting New Delhi.
Cancelled flights
Air India and IndiGo cancelled their flights to Bangladesh after its embattled PM Hasina tendered her resignation and fled the country amid weeks of massive protests.
Air India said in a post on X, “In view of the emerging situation in Bangladesh, we have cancelled the scheduled operation of our flights to and from Dhaka with immediate effect. We are continuously monitoring the situation and are extending support to our passengers with confirmed bookings for travel to and from Dhaka with a one-time waiver on rescheduling and cancellation charges. Safety of our guests and crew remains our foremost priority.”
The airline currently operates 14 weekly flights between India and Dhaka.
India’s largest carrier, IndiGo, which operates 35 weekly flights between the two countries, also issued a statement on X.
Impact Shorts
More Shorts“In view of the ongoing situation in Dhaka, all fights scheduled for tomorrow have unfortunately been cancelled. We understand that this may cause significant inconvenience and disruption of your travel plans and we sincerely regret this development.”
“Our customer experience team is available round the clock to assist all affected customers. Alternatively, rebook and full refund options are available on our website. We appreciate your continued trust and patience, and will keep you updated on further developments,” it added.
Vistara, which operates 10 weekly flights between India and Dhaka, did not issue any statement about flight cancellations till Monday evening.
Notably, India on Sunday night strongly advised all its nationals presently residing in Bangladesh to exercise “extreme caution.”
It also asked them to restrict their movements in the wake of fresh violence in the neighbouring country.
Also read: How political instability in neighbourhood affects India
Train operations
The Indian Railways on Monday suspended all train operations to Bangladesh amid the unrest in the neighbouring country.
The affected trains include the Kolkata-Dhaka-Kolkata Maitree Express (13109/13110), Dhaka-Kolkata-Dhaka Maitree Express (13107/13108), Kolkata-Khulna-Kolkata Bandhan Express, and the Dhaka-New Jalpaiguri-Dhaka Mitali Express (13131/13132) that has been suspended since July 21.
Indian railway officials said they have been in touch with counterparts since July 18 and trains between the two countries were being cancelled on a daily basis.
The officials, according to The Hindu, said train services will not resume unless there is a favourable response from Bangladesh officials that trains can operate across the border.
The officials say Mitali Express’s rake is in Bangladesh and hasn’t been back since July 21. Bandhan Express’s last run ended on July 18, and Maitree Express’s last run ended on July 19.
As per the report, India and Bangladesh’s goods trade has also suffered.
The newspaper quoted officials as saying that there are currently 168 loaded and 187 empty waggons in Bangladesh.
The neighbour receives food grains from India, particularly maize.
The majority of waggons are currently stranded in Bangladesh and return empty to India. Eight rakes for Bangladesh that are loaded are parked in India, according to officials.
Border security
As the situation escalated, the Border Security Force (BSF) said “it has received strict instruction from the government to not allow anyone into the country without valid documents.”
According to a senior BSF official, they were in communication with their counterparts, Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB), and the situation along the Bangladeshi border was normal at the moment.
“In view of the changed situation in Bangladesh, the BSF has issued alert along the Indo-Bangladesh border and the number of troops deployed along the border has been increased,” the border-guarding force said in a statement on August 5.
A 4,096-kilometre border separating Bangladesh and India runs through the states of West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura.
According to a BSF official, there was no movement of vehicles or goods to or from the Integrated Check Posts (ICPs) after the curfew that was enforced by the authorities in Bangladesh on August 4.
Pradyot Kishore Debbarma, the founder of the Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (TIPRA), said on X that he has assured Union Home Minister Amit Shah that Tripura’s Indian borders are effectively guarded and that no unauthorised immigration will be permitted.
As per another report by The Hindu, to assess the operational preparedness, BSF Director-General Daljit Singh Chawdhary and Additional D-G Ravi Gandhi travelled to the Sunderbans in the North 24 Parganas region of West Bengal.
Along with the particular challenges of the rainforest and water-rich terrain, the BSF D-G was also told about the floating border outposts along the Indo-Bangladesh water-border. The briefing covered the effective methods put in place to combat border crimes, such as smuggling and illegal crossings.
“Tripura has already tightened security since the turmoil in Bangladesh. Today, patrolling and security in the bordering areas have been tightened,” a senior state police official said, according to Hindustan Times.
On August 2, SK Misra, the Inspector General of the BSF’s Mizoram and Cachar Frontier, inspected the state of the unfenced gaps along the Kushiyara River and other areas of Assam.
“We keep a 24/7 vigil on the border areas, but it has been strengthened multiple times now. We won’t allow a spillover of violence from Bangladesh to India through this border,” an official said.
Kangkanjyoti Saikia, the Deputy Inspector General (DIG) of the Assam Police’s southern area, told Hindustan Times on Monday that the security troops stationed on the borders are receiving sufficient support.
Catch all the live updates on the Bangladesh crisis HERE .
Night curfew in Meghalaya
In light of the recent instability in the neighbourhood, Meghalaya has enforced a night curfew along its international border with that country, according to state Deputy Chief Minister Prestone Tynsong.
“In view of the volatile situation, the state government has decided to impose a night curfew along the international border with Bangladesh,” Tynsong said, as per NDTV.
The curfew is imposed from 6 pm to 6 am every day till further notice. The curfew has been enforced within 200 metres of the international border and the Indian territory.
According to Tynsong, the border between Bangladesh and India is patrolled by nine battalions of the BSF in Meghalaya.
He said that BSF’s Deputy Inspector General has been instructed to inform the authorities and that the government will send additional security personnel at the border if necessary.
Moreover, the Meghalaya Police have been instructed to support the BSF in times of necessity.
A opportunity for India’s textile biz
The textile industry, which accounts for the majority of Bangladesh’s exports, is expected to suffer as a result of the worsening crisis.
This is because foreign buyers might turn their attention to other markets like India.
According to Business Standard, industry experts estimate that if 10–11 per cent of the bordering country’s exports are redirected to Indian centres like Tiruppur, India will benefit from an additional $300–400 million in monthly trade.
“We expect orders may start coming to Tiruppur, and this financial year, they are expected to be at least 10 per cent more than last year’s,” said KM Subramanian, president of the Tiruppur Exporters’ Association, was quoted as saying by the outlet.
With a high double-digit share in the European Union and the United Kingdom and a 10 per cent market share in the US, Bangladesh exports $3.5–3.8 billion worth of clothing per month. India exports goods worth between $1.3 and $1.5 billion every month.
“This is unfortunate and if the current disruption lasts long, it will affect buyer sentiment. Initially, buyers will likely shift some orders to India and other countries. We have the capacity to handle an additional $300-400 million in orders immediately,” said Business Standard quoted Prabhu Damodaran, secretary to the Indian Texpreneurs Federation, an industry body.
The crisis has come at a time when Bangladesh was expected to cross $50 billion in annual export in 2024, compared to around $47 billion in 2023.
In addition to this, manufacturing units owned by Indians in Bangladesh are also likely to shift their base to India. According to trade-policy analyst S Chandrasekaran, around 25 per cent of the units in Bangladesh are owned by Indians. They include companies like Shahi Exports, House of Pearl Fashions, Jay Jay Mills, TCNS, Gokaldas Images, and Ambattur Clothing.
“The movement of consignments is stuck, and there is a breakdown in the supply chain for the upcoming Christmas season. India has an advantage here because orders will be diverted,” Chandrasekaran added. “The sudden drop in global volumes may be compensated by a rise in Indian exports.”
With inputs from agencies