200 candidates withdraw in French election: Will it block the far-right's path to power?

In an attempt at thwarting the far-right National Rally (RN) from gaining power, scores of candidates have withdrawn from the upcoming second round of France’s parliamentary elections.

This move, dubbed the “republican front,” aims to consolidate the anti-RN vote and prevent Marine Le Pen’s party from securing an absolute majority in the National Assembly.

More than 200 candidates, primarily from French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp and the broad left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) alliance, have stepped aside to bolster the chances of defeating RN candidates in the second round of elections.

French newspaper Le Monde reported that 221 candidates withdrew, including 130 from the left and 82 from Macron’s centrist alliance, Ensemble. This strategic move has led to around 108 three-way races instead of the initial 300-plus three-way contests. Other than two constituencies where four candidates qualified, the remaining seats will reportedly see two-way races.

The political parties had till 6pm (local time) on July 2 to register their candidates.

Macron and French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal have previously stated the importance of blocking RN from power. Attal expressed the urgency of the situation, stating, “I need to prevent the National Rally from achieving an absolute majority in the National Assembly because it would be — and I say it from the bottom of my gut — it would be terrible for the country and the French.”

Has this political maneuver been used before?

The “republican front” tactic has been used before, most notably in 2002 when voters rallied behind Jacques Chirac to defeat Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s father, in a presidential contest.

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However, it remains uncertain whether voters will heed the guidance of political leaders in the current climate, especially given Marine Le Pen’s efforts to soften her party’s image.

What happened in the first round?

In the first round of voting, the RN emerged as the frontrunner with approximately 33 per cent of the vote. The NPF secured 28 per cent, while Macron’s centrist bloc garnered just over 20 per cent. Pollsters initially estimated that the RN could win between 250-300 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, but the recent tactical withdrawals could significantly alter this projection.

Marine Le Pen acknowledged the challenges ahead, stating, “We cannot agree to form a government if we cannot act. That would be the worst of betrayals of our voters.”

However, she hinted at the possibility of forming alliances, saying, “If we have, say, 270 lawmakers, we need 19 more, we will go to others and ask them if they are ready to participate with us in a new majority.”

What could be the outcome?

If no party secures a clear majority, France could face a period of political uncertainty. Attal suggested that mainstream right, left, and centre parties could form ad hoc alliances to pass legislation.

Meanwhile, Xavier Bertrand, a senior member of the centre-right Republicans (LR) party, proposed forming a “provisional government” until the next presidential election, reported Reuters.

Also Read: Why a far-right government in France is unlikely soon

In a foretaste of potential tensions, Le Pen accused Macron of preparing key public sector appointments to hinder the RN’s ability to implement its policies. “When you want to counter the results of an election by nominating your people to jobs, and when that stops [the government] from being able to carry out policies which the French people have asked for… I call that an administrative coup d’état,” she said.

What could RN in power mean for France?

The RN’s rise has sparked concerns among various groups. The party is known for its anti-immigrant, eurosceptic stance and its plans to cut funding to the EU. Human rights organisations worry about the potential impact on ethnic minorities, while economists question the feasibility of the RN’s spending plans.

In response to these concerns, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged pro-EU parties to address voter concerns and counter rising nationalism. Financial markets reacted cautiously, with some relief that the far-right had not performed better, but also apprehension about the risk of policy paralysis.

Public sentiment remains divided. A survey by pollster Ifop showed that a small majority of mainstream conservative voters would back the left-wing candidate best positioned to defeat an RN rival, except when the candidate was from Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical left-wing France Unbowed (LFI) party.

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The RN’s potential ban on the Muslim headscarf and plans to restrict the rights of dual-nationality French citizens in defence, security, and nuclear industry jobs have further polarised opinions. Le Pen highlighted her commitment to these policies, stating, “There are a number of issues regarding Islamist ideologies and the headscarf is only one of them.”

The upcoming second round of parliamentary elections in France, just days away on July 7, is set to be a pivotal moment in the country’s political history.

With inputs from agencies