Indian markets poised to be in top-three league despite macro hurdles, say experts

There are three factors that drive the stock markets - valuations, growth in earnings and liquidity. While valuations are attractive at the moment and expected earnings forecast is also positive to a large extent, liquidity drying up has been one major highlight of the summer of 2022. This has given rise to a value-conscious mindset among investors, said Kamal Manocha, Founder  & CEO, PMS AIF World as he began a panel discussion with top equity market thought leaders during its mid year event, named Summer of ‘22 : Equity is in the Air.

After almost two years of liquidity-driven market rally, we are again staring at macro-driven risks for the market.

But, as always, market experts hold the view that wealth-creation opportunity still lies in the hands of patient, long-term investors. “India, as an economy and a society, is slated for not just a step ahead, but a huge leap ahead, which is not of short term but for the long term," Bharat Shah, Executive Director of ASK Group, said. “It’s not minor, it is substantial. And exchange is not shallow, it is deep. Therefore, wealth creation opportunity is not something of a briefing variety, it is huge.” Shah sounded bullish about the India story at this panel discussion that was held at the recent PMS AIF World Third mid-year summit. PMS AIF World is a new age investment services platform focused in the space of alternates for those HNIs who are looking to do analytics & knowledge driven good investments. Human emotions and investment decisions are so closely linked, yet so different. Market movements depend wholly on investor sentiment, which is ruled by experiences of immediate past. Investing, on the other hand, is all about taking our mind away from the immediate reactions of the market, and focus on seeking opportunities for the long term. “I believe there have been deep changes brought about in the character of this country over the last 5-8 years. Some of the changes are combining together to build up a crescendo, while some are in the offing and some changes will take longer to make an impact,” Shah said. He believes that one market, which offers credibility on a long term is India and from a long term perspective, there are barely any choices available of size, substance, quality, character and magnitude as India. However, Raamdeo Agrawal, Co-Founder and Chairman, Motilal Oswal Group, said it is important to not repeat mistakes, rather learn from them and refrain from falling into the same trap with a myopic vision. In the current scenario of liquidity drying up and rising interest rates, the extreme valuations that some of the growth companies commanded have witnessed deep correction and there is all likelihood of more correction. “The investors did not know the true value of these digital companies but they kept on getting global valuations based on momentum,” Agrawal said. The earnings growth in most of these companies was minimal which resulted in the rerating of their PE multiples. The markets have become jittery and more cautious with the foreign institutional investors (FII) shying away from Indian equities for nearly 10 months now. Agrawal feels that the investors will have to make some more adjustments in their strategy and their holding period might increase some more. There’s always a flipside of anything adverse. And, that is what Prashant Khemka, the founder and managing director of Whiteoak Capital Management, looks out for. “It is always positive,” he said. The sustained selling by the FIIs have made Indian markets realise their strengths and not rue over their weaknesses. “If the foreigners have sold so much, then they have relatively less to sale going forward, and even after so much of selling, the Indian markets have fallen less than half of what the American markets have lost,” Khemka said. He said it is time to revisit the past when it was believed that the world market will behave depending upon what happens in the American markets. Khemka expects that in the coming decade, India will be among the top three countries in the world both in terms of the GDP as well as the size of the market, and the more FIIs turn into sellers, greater will be the spring back action and bigger will be the opportunity for the country. “When there is an opportunity, don’t look for gifts or doubts, concerns, scepticism and worries are a natural, a defensive and a protective mechanism, but when you unduly apply that simply because prices are volatile, then I think you’re not doing investing, you’re merely dancing to the tune of the markets,” said Shah. The experts see opportunity now and believe it is going to be there tomorrow and thereafter. But it is important to recognise this opportunity and remain engaged.

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