GDP growth seen at 1.2% for Q4 FY20; economic activity came to standstill due to nationwide lockdown: SBI report

The country's GDP is estimated to have grown at 1.2 percent in the last quarter of the previous fiscal as economic activity came to a standstill in the last week of March due to the nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19, a report said

Press Trust of India May 26, 2020 16:15:31 IST
GDP growth seen at 1.2% for Q4 FY20; economic activity came to standstill due to nationwide lockdown: SBI report

Mumbai: The country's GDP is estimated to have grown at 1.2 percent in the last quarter of the previous fiscal as economic activity came to a standstill in the last week of March due to the nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19, a report said.

According to the SBI's research report – Ecowrap - the gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 4.2 percent for FY20 and (-) 6.8 percent for FY21.

The fourth-quarter GDP growth number for FY20 will be announced by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on May 29.

In the third quarter of FY20, GDP growth slipped to a nearly seven-year low of 4.7 percent. In Q1 and Q2 of FY20, GDP growth was 5.1 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively.

“We believe that Q4 (FY20) GDP growth would be around 1.2 percent as the economic activity in the last seven days of March month was completely suspended due to the nationwide lockdown,” the research report said.

The report sees a loss of at least Rs 1.4 lakh crore during those seven days of lockdown.

Click here to follow LIVE updates on coronavirus outbreak

“Subsequently, the annual FY20 GDP growth would be around 4.2 percent as compared to 5 percent as it was projected earlier,” the report said.

It estimates FY21 GDP growth to be around (-) 6.8 percent and gross value added (GVA) growth would be nearly (-) 3.1 percent.

The loss is maximum (around 50 percent) in red zones and where almost all the big districts of the country are located. The combined loss of orange and red zones is around 90 percent of a total loss.

State-wise analysis indicates that the top 10 states accounted for 75 percent of total GDP loss with Maharashtra contributing 15.6 percent of total loss followed by Tamil Nadu (9.4 percent) and Gujarat (8.6 percent).

These three states also have the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country.

The report further said COVID-19 cases in the country could peak anytime in the last week of June.

“Based on the current 7-day moving average of new cases witnessed in the country, we believe that new cases are likely to peak somewhere in the last week of June, beginning June 20,” the report said.

Following that, the new cases are expected to witness a steep fall till the beginning of August after which it is expected to gradually reduce to flatten by mid-September.

The report, however, said the estimates are purely based on an assessment of current trends that can quickly change given the cyclonic disaster in West Bengal and the continued return of migrant labourers.

The number of COVID-19 cases in the country stood at 1,45,380, as per health ministry data.

Updated Date:

also read

Are the young dying of heart attack due to COVID-19?
World

Are the young dying of heart attack due to COVID-19?

"During our study, we couldn't detect viral particles in the cardiac tissues of COVID-19 patients, but what we found was tissue changes associated with DNA damage and repair,"

Dengue cases climb in West Bengal, 840 new infections in run-up to festival
India

Dengue cases climb in West Bengal, 840 new infections in run-up to festival

Most of the cases have been reported from North 24 Parganas, Howrah, Kolkata, Hooghly, Murshidabad, South 24 Parganas, Jalpaiguri and Darjeeling districts

COVID-19: Active Covid cases in India rise to 46,342
Health

COVID-19: Active Covid cases in India rise to 46,342

The active cases comprise 0.10 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate increased to 98.71 per cent.