Explained: How early monsoon may bring down India’s inflation heat

The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala three days earlier than normal on Saturday, according to The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). That’s good news for India in more ways than one. The early arrival of rains will provide relief from the intense heatwave that the country experienced this summer. And more importantly, it has raised expectations of a bumper crop. What are the IMD predictions for monsoon? The monsoon arrives in Kerala on 1 June and advances to the rest of the country by mid-July. “Southwest monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, most parts of Kerala, some parts of south Tamil Nadu, some parts of Gulf of Mannar and some more parts of southwest Bay of Bengal today (29 May),” IMD said. It is likely to move into the rest of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, as well as parts of Karnataka and the northeastern states, in the next three to four days, the department said.

Updates on Monsoon today , 31 May

SW Monsoon has further advanced into some parts of South Interior Karnataka and some more parts of TN

Conditions are fav for some more parts KA, TN and some parts of Konkan Goa, SHWB and Sikkim during next 2, 3 days pic.twitter.com/PKiLrihJpe

— K S Hosalikar (@Hosalikar_KS) May 31, 2022

According to the IMD, the country will receive normal and well-distributed rainfall this season. How the monsoon affects the harvest? More than 50 per cent of India’s agriculture depends on the monsoon. The farm sector is the main source of income for 60 per cent of the country’s population and accounts for 18 per cent of the economy, reports Bloomberg. A good monsoon means that the output of crops is likely to go up. Once monsoon arrives, the cultivation of kharif crops, which are heavily dependent on rains begins. Farmers can now start sowing rice, soya bean, cotton, and pulses. With early and improved planting, the crop yield is likely to get a boost. How will this affect inflation? The southwest monsoon contributes 74.9 per cent to India’s annual rainfall. The monsoon is critical to India’s farm output and economic growth at a time when man-made systems like canals and tube wells irrigate only a part of the land and the country is battling soaring food prices. The war in Ukraine has pushed up world food costs to a record high, reports Bloomberg. India’s retail inflation hit an eight-year of 7.79 per cent in April, pushed by rising fuel and food prices. The monsoon will provide a boost to the farm sector and lead to a rise in rural incomes in the country. As a result, there will be an increase in demand for consumer goods, vehicles and tractors, farm equipment and pesticides, fertilisers and seeds, according to a report in The Federal. A good kharif crop, easing of vegetable prices, and a fall in edible oil prices will bring down overall food inflation. The monsoon will also brighten the prospects for winter crops planted in October and November, according to News18. The intense heatwave affected India’s crop output. Wheat production in the 2021-22 crop season ending June is officially projected to be around 106.41 million tonnes. The amount is 3.8 million tonnes less than last year’s output and 4.41 per cent lower than the previous estimate of 111.32 million tonnes, as heatwave hit production. With less output and high prices, the government imposed a ban on wheat exports and restricted the overseas sale of sugar . However, with the prediction of a normal monsoon, India can look forward. Are there any reasons to worry? The monsoon does not put to rest the worry about the shortage of fertilisers in the country. India is largely dependent on Russia for imports, which have been hit by the war. However, the government has finalised a critical supply of fertilisers from Russia, according to a report in The Hindustan Times. An official told the newspaper had “legitimate national interests” and to fulfil them it had initiated talks for multi-year import of fertilisers for the first time in decades. The Narendra Modi government on May 21 said that it would provide additional fertiliser subsidy of ₹1.10 lakh crore to protect farmers from prices. The additional allocation has doubled the government’s total fertiliser subsidy bill to a record ₹2.15 lakh crore in the current fiscal (2022-23). “Despite rising fertiliser prices globally, we have protected our farmers from such price hikes. In addition to the fertiliser subsidy of ₹1.05 lakh crore in the budget, an additional amount of ₹1.10 lakh crore is being provided to further cushion our farmers,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had tweeted. With inputs from agencies Read all the Latest News , Trending News ,  Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.