Economic Survey of India 2021-22: GDP growth forecast at 8 to 8.5% in FY23; key points

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday presented the Economic Survey ahead of the government’s Union Budget for the fiscal beginning 1 April, 2022, that will be presented on Tuesday.

The Economic Survey analyses the country’s economic development over the previous fiscal by offering comprehensive statistical data on all sectors including manufacturing, agricultural and industrial. It also suggests reforms that could be undertaken to accelerate growth.

Here are some of the key highlights of The Economic Survey of India 2021-22 

• Advance estimates suggest that the Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting in 2020-21.
• The Indian economy is in a good position to witness GDP growth of 8.0-8.5 per cent in 2022-23.
• All indicators show that the economic impact of the ‘second wave’ in Q1 was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe.
• Agriculture and allied sectors have been the least impacted by the pandemic. The sector is expected to grow by 3.9 per cent in 2021-22 after growing 3.6 per cent in the previous year
• Advance estimates suggest that the GVA (gross value added) of industry (including mining and construction) will rise by 11.8 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting by 7 per cent in 2020-21.
• The services sector has been the hardest hit by the pandemic, especially segments that involve human contact.
• This sector is estimated to grow by 8.2 per cent this financial year following last year’s 8.4 per cent contraction.
• Total consumption is estimated to have grown by 7.0 per cent in 2021-22 with significant contributions from government spending.
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation exceeded pre-pandemic levels on the back of ramped up public expenditure on infrastructure.
• Exports of both goods and services have been exceptionally strong so far in 2021-22, but imports also recovered strongly with recovery in domestic demand as well as higher international commodity prices.
• India’s balance of payments remained in surplus throughout the last two years.
• India’s Consumer Price Index inflation stood at 5.6 per cent YoY in December 2021 which is within the targeted tolerance band. Wholesale price inflation, however, has been running in double-digits.

The survey reads, “Overall, macro-economic stability indicators suggest that the Indian economy is well placed to take on the challenges of 2022-23. One of the reasons that the Indian economy is in a good position is its unique response strategy. Rather than pre-commit to a rigid response, Government of India opted to use safety-nets for vulnerable sections on one hand while responding iteratively based on Bayesian-updating of information."

With inputs from the Economic Survey of India 2021-22 

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