Internet Will Be Four Times As Large In Four Years

Cisco issued results of the annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2011-2016), the company’s ongoing initiative to forecast and analyse Internet Protocol (IP) networking growth and trends worldwide. The VNI Forecast update covers 2011-2016, and quantitatively projects the significant amount of IP traffic expected to travel public and private networks, including Internet, managed IP, and mobile data traffic generated by consumers and business users. This year, Cisco has also developed a new complementary study ―the Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, which includes global and regional residential, consumer mobile, and business services growth rates.

By 2016, annual global IP traffic is forecast to be 1.3 zettabytes – (a zettabyte is equal to a sextillion bytes, or a trillion gigabytes). The projected increase of global IP traffic between 2015 and 2016 alone is more than 330 exabytes, which is almost equal to the the total amount of global IP traffic generated in 2011 (369 exabytes). This significant level of traffic growth and service penetration is driven by a number of factors, including:

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An increasing number of devices: The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, and other smart devices as well as machine-to-machine (M2M) connections are driving up the demand for connectivity. By 2016, the forecast projects there will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections―almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth, ― compared with 10.3 billion in 2011

India will have two billion networked devices by 2016- double from devices in 2011 which stood at 1 billion.

The APAC region alone will have almost 46% of the global network connections, i.e. 8.7 billion network connections.

More Internet users: By 2016, there are expected to be 3.4 billion Internet users ― about 45 percent of the world’s projected population according to United Nations estimates.

India internet traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 64% between 2011 to 2016

In Asia Pacific, there will be 1.7 billion total Internet users in 2016, up from 935 million in 2011.

Faster broadband speeds: The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase nearly fourfold, from 9 megabits per second (Mbps) in 2011 to 34 Mbps in 2016.

In India average fixed broadband speed is expected to grow 4.2 fold, during this period, from 1.5Mbps to 6Mbps.

More video: By 2016, 1.2 million video minutes―the equivalent of 833 days (or over two years) ―would travel the Internet every second.

In India Internet video will be 70% of all internet traffic in 2016, up from 30% in 2011.

Wi-Fi growth: By 2016, over half of the world’s Internet traffic is expected to come from Wi-Fi connections.

Global IP Traffic and Device Highlights:

Total Global IP Traffic in “Bytes”

Global IP traffic is expected to reach 1.3 zettabyes per year or 110 exabytes per month by 2016, nearly a fourfold increase from approximately 31 exabytes per month in 2011.

Average global IP traffic in 2016 is expected to reach 150 petabytes per hour, the equivalent of 278 million people streaming an HD movie (at an average streaming speed of 1.2 Mbps) simultaneously.

Regional IP Traffic Trends

For fastest-growing IP traffic at the country level, India is expected to have the highest IP traffic growth rate with a 62 percent CAGR from 2011 to 2016. In a second-place tie, Brazil and South Africa both have 53 percent CAGRs over the forecast period.

By 2016, the Asia Pacific region is forecast to generate the most IP traffic (40.5 exabytes per month), maintaining the top spot over North America (27.5 exabytes per month), which generated the second most amount of traffic.

The fastest-growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period (2011–2016) are the Middle East and Africa (58 percent compound annual growth rate, for 10-fold growth), and Latin America (49 percent CAGR, sevenfold growth).

By 2016, the highest traffic-generating countries will be the United States (22 exabytes per month) and China (12 exabytes per month).

IPv6 Capable Devices and Connections

Globally, the index suggests there will be 8 billion IPv6-capable fixed and mobile devices in 2016, up from 1 billion in 2011; and

Globally, 40 percent of all fixed and mobile networked devices will be IPv6-capable in 2016, up from 10 percent in 2011.

3DTV and HD (Advanced Video)

Global advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3-D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase five times between 2011 and 2016.

Mobile Broadband

In India, mobile Internet data traffic will grow 58-fold between 2011 to 2016, at a CAGR of 126%.

Global mobile Internet data traffic is forecast to increase 18 times from 2011 to 2016, to 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes annually).

Global File Sharing

By 2016, global peer-to-peer traffic is projected to account for 54 percent of global consumer Internet file sharing traffic, down from 77 percent in 2011. On a quantity basis, however, the amount of peer-to-peer traffic is expected to increase from a rate of 4.6 exabytes per month in 2011 to 10 exabytes per month by 2016.

Global Business IP Traffic

In India, Business IP traffic will reach 161Petabytes per month in 2016, equivalent to 40 million DVDs per month or 55084 DVDs per hour.

Business IP video conferencing is projected to grow sixfold over the forecast period, growing more than two times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 42 percent from 2011 to 2016.
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Global Addressable Market and Service Adoption Highlights_

Globally, business Internet users are projected to grow from 1.6 billion in 2011 to 2.3 billion by 2016.

In India, business mobile data traffic will grow 49-fold from 2011 to2016 at a CAGR of 117%.

Globally, desktop videoconferencing is projected to be the fastest-growing service, with 36.4 million users in 2011, increasing to 218.9 million users in 2016.

In India, mobile data traffic in 2016 will be equivalent to 21x the volume of the entire Indian Internet in 2005.

Globally, business mobile location-based services (LBS) are forecast to be the fastest-growing business mobile service, with 27 million users in 2011, increasing to 158 million users by 2016.

“The Internet plays a pivotal role, for emerging countries like India, to address its ambitions. The findings from the Cisco Visual Networking Index report, project a staggering growth for Internet traffic in India. Increasing video consumption, fuelled by adoption of new technologies like 3G and 4G and the government’s efforts towards the last mile connectivity will be the key drivers. Eventually, all these would help India transition to a fully networked economy,” said Sanjay Rohatgi, Senior Vice President, Service Provider, Cisco India & SAARC.