Expert Avantika Goswami dissects IPCC's latest report: 'Every new piece of hard science about climate change is crucial'

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC>, established in 1988, is a United Nations body that takes responsibility for advancing public knowledge about climate change – its causes, potential impacts, and response options. This knowledge is shared through reports that are freely available but the language used is often inaccessible to non-experts.

The IPCC has finalised the second part of the Sixth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, the Working Group II contribution to this report. The Government of India has welcomed this report, stating that it reflects its own calls for justice and equity at the UN Climate Change Conference [COP26> in Glasgow in 2021.

We bring you an interview with climate specialist Avantika Goswami to understand the key takeaways from the latest IPCC report. Goswami is the Deputy Programme Manager, Climate Change and Renewable Energy, at the Centre for Science and Environment in Delhi. She has an interdisciplinary background in climate and economic research, sustainability programme management, and management consulting. She studied at Columbia University in New York.

She has worked on projects in India, the US, the UK, Ireland, and the Maldives. Her interests lie at the intersection of climate science and political economy. She focuses on transformative solutions to rapidly reduce carbon emissions while centering climate justice and equity.

Excerpts from the interview:

What, according to you, are five key takeaways from the newly released IPCC report? 

1. The report clearly highlights that about half the world’s population is highly vulnerable to climate change.  

2. The global hotspots for climate risks are all regions in the Global South — West, Central and East Africa, South Asia, Central and South America and Small Islands Developing States. In fact, the poor are and will continue to be hurt the most in general by climate change. Low-income populations face the largest gap in adaptation action, in terms of what is happening versus what is needed.  

3. Every small degree of rise in warming will increase risks. Up to 14 percent of species face a very high risk of extinction at global warming of 1.5C, and this rises to 29 percent at 3C, and 39 percent at 4C.

4. Some of the losses that have been incurred are irreversible — such as retreat of glaciers, and thawing of permafrost, mainly in the Arctic region.  

5. Financing for climate change adaptation, and political commitment towards adaptation action are both inadequate, and need to be galvanized urgently so as not to miss the brief window of opportunity available to protect human and planetary health.

Could you point out some of the important aspects that have emerged in relation to India and, more broadly, Asia?

Broadly, the report reiterates what we already know – that hotter summers are occurring due to climate change and impacts such as loss of food crops, floods, and water scarcity will worsen unless we act now. Agro-based economies like India are particularly vulnerable to threatened food security. The report also mentions that, by the mid-21st century, the international transboundary river basins of Ganges and inter-state Sabarmati river basin “could face severe water scarcity challenges with climate change acting as a stress multiplier.” Rice production in India could be affected, potentially decreasing from 10 percent to 30 percent whereas maize production can decrease from 25 percent to 70 percent, for a range of 1-4 degrees C temperature rise. And climate-induced migration is likely to worsen. Already, India saw more than 4 million disaster displacements in 2019 alone.

What are some of the points that you were surprised to see in the report? 

The mention of mental health being affected by climate change, and the confirmation that the poor are hurt the most, are very positive developments in this report.

To what extent is this report likely to change things at the policy level, and on the ground in terms of implementation? 

IPCC publications are extremely valuable since they are collaborative efforts of the leading climate scientists across the world, and are published through multilateral engagements with country governments as well. It’s hard to say what kind of change this report will galvanize, since the IPCC has been conducting this process for over 30 years, and we have still failed to rein in runaway climate change. But every new piece of hard science that spreads knowledge about climate change and its impacts is crucial to educate laypeople, and the increasing media attention that these reports are getting these days is a welcome development.

India’s Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav has claimed that this report reaffirms India’s call for equity and climate justice at COP26. What do you think, especially since you were representing CSE at COP26, and must have seen some of the robust debates between people from various countries? 

The argument for loss and damage finance is getting stronger, and this report has helped. That was a key failure of COP26. But it is getting harder for developed countries to shun their responsibility towards the world’s poor who are suffering harsh impacts today.  

What are some of the solutions and ways forward that the IPCC report recommends? 

Some of the broad solutions proposed focus on strengthening health systems to reduce the impacts of infectious diseases and heat stress. Harnessing the adaptive strengths of nature, the report recommends measures like agroforestry, the conservation, protection, and restoration of natural forests, and the planting of diverse tree species to withstand climate impacts. Groundwater depletion in agriculture can be combatted by adopting rainwater storage and other water-saving technologies, while food security can be enhanced by adopting stress-tolerant crops and livestock, promoting community-based adaptation that is locally driven, and respecting local and indigenous knowledge systems. All of this brings co-benefits for nutrition, health, and wellbeing. Cities can use nature-based engineering approaches like establishing parks, green corridors, and urban agriculture. Most of these solutions are known, and they obviously point to developing a more compassionate, less extractive relationship with nature, rooted in indigenous knowledge and collective resource management. But it’s up to governments to stand up to capital and industry, and harness the political will to make these solutions a reality.

Chintan Girish Modi is a writer, journalist, commentator, and book reviewer.

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