NSA meet: Pakistan may want to avoid talks with India, but here's why it can't

It has been a week since India proposed the dates (23-14 August) to Pakistan to host talks between the national security advisors of the two nations. Islamabad has so far played it by the ear and neither rejected nor accepted the dates. Chances are that it may continue to do so for the next few days, possibly even a week, raising questions whether Pakistan is having a re-think. However, sources have told Firstpost that Pakistan will eventually confirm and NSA of Pakistan Sartaj Aziz will likely to travel to India for talks with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval on the above-mentioned dates. This is despite the latest red rag from Pakistan. Pakistan declared that it won’t invite Speaker of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly for the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA) conference from 30 September to 8 October. Sartaz Aziz had provocatively stated: “We will never invite the Speaker of occupied Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. Pakistan does not recognise and accept the said assembly as a legitimate one.” [caption id=“attachment_2385326” align=“alignleft” width=“380” class=" “]  Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Sartaj Aziz. Reuters[/caption] The Indian reaction was fast and furious. Thirty one India Chapters of the CPA India Region met in New Delhi on 7 August and demanded that Pakistan should forfeit its right to host the CPA conference and the venue should be shifted to another country. India has also threatened to boycott the conference if Pakistan went ahead to host it and not invite the Speaker of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly. Two things need to be highlighted in Pakistan’s latest provocation. First, Pakistan seems to have taken a leaf out of Chinese strategy and embarked on a new political stratagem on the Kashmir issue even for multi-lateral events. Since the India-US nuclear agreement, China has started taking a blatant pro-Pakistan stand on the Kashmir issue, reflected by its policy of issuing stapled visas to Indians domiciled in Jammu and Kashmir while residents of the Pakistan-held Kashmir are given regular visas by China. A little over eight years ago, Pakistan had hosted a similar conference but it had not stoked any such controversy. The Jammu and Kashmir branch of the Indian CPA was duly invited by Pakistan when it had hosted the third Asia and India Regional CPA Conference in Islamabad in March 2007. Three delegates from Jammu and Kashmir had participated in it. Secondly, Pakistan has chosen Sartaz Aziz to trigger this controversy – the man who is supposed to travel to India later this month. Is Pakistan trying to force India to call off the NSA-level talks unilaterally just as it had done with the foreign secretary-level talks one year ago? Recent terror strikes in Samba, Gurdaspur and Udhampur , an uptick in cross-border firing by Pakistan and a spurt in infiltration attempts from Pakistani side to India are all part of this strategy which forces India to somehow call off the NSA-level talks. Although, it doesn’t look like India is in a mood to oblige Pakistan yet again. Pakistan too has realized that post-Ufa summit pinpricks to India on the terror issue have failed to deliver the desired results. However, it is highly unlikely that Pakistan will call off the NSA-level talks. First of all talks under this format were proposed by Pakistan itself. Secondly, Pakistan wants to project itself as a peacenik and India as a peace-wrecker. Thirdly, Islamabad knows that if it calls off the dialogue the international community will hold Islamabad responsible for the logjam. Pakistan does not have the luxury to propose new date for the meeting or change the existing dates as it would mean starting the entire process all over again. In that eventuality too the onus will lie on Pakistan. Thereby, Pakistan now is in a trap. It is not exactly looking forward to the August meeting which was scheduled as per its own desire. Yet it cannot walk away from the exercise or seek to defer it. This is lot of time for elements in Pakistan to try their luck yet again. India needs to be on its guard more than ever before.