Firstpost-Ipsos National Trust Survey 2019: A look at methodology followed, numbers involved

Firstpost and Ipsos Friday recently conducted a study to ascertain public opinions  on some of the ‘burning questions’ while assessing the direction of the political wind in the country before the 2019 Lok Sabha Election. The study is set to be released on Friday and will be available in Firstpost Print edition, which will be available on newsstands from 26 January. The objective of the study was to ascertain the local political situation and identify influencing trust factors at SCR and state level, segregated by urban and rural areas and coupled with some diagnostics on how and why people might vote in a certain way. And to achieve the goal, total 34,470 individuals were surveyed from 291 urban wards and 690 villages in 57 socio-cultural regions covering 320 parliamentary constituencies, spreading in 285 districts across 23 states of India.

The sample collected through survey was then weighted using 2011 national census data to correct for over- and under-sampling of certain population sub-groups. The survey also adopted a sampling protocol that was best suitable to capture the heterogeneity of India’s population base. The sampling protocol was designed to provide an estimate at socio-cultural region and state level, with 95 percent confidence interval and 5 percent margin of error (desired levels of precision). It included a comprehensive national sample frame at the most granular level possible (Census enumerator blocks in urban and villages in rural) and random selection at every level of sample selection (ie district, ward/village, household, individual).

The study also adopted PPS (probability proportional to size) sampling procedure for selection of wards and villages in each SCR.